在过去的数十年里，中国的房地产市场异常繁荣，导致多地实行了限购政策，限制购房人数及数量。然而如今，面对着令人担忧的问题——房价持续走低，政府开始采取行动。
中国最大城市之一的广州，在本周一取消了所有购房限制，成为近期一系列大规模经济刺激举措中的最新动作。此举与近几个月来其他二十余个较小型城市的策略相呼应。这些政策旨在逆转房地产行业的衰退趋势和整个中国经济的全面减速，触及包括应届毕业生就业、退休人士养老等社会各个层面。
上海和深圳也相继在本周一放松了购房规则，但并未彻底取消限购措施。这则有关中国最大城市尝试大胆改革的消息，为饱受经济问题困扰的中国股市注入了一针强心剂。
上海证券交易所或深圳证券交易所上市的大盘股指数CSI 300，在一周前暴涨近16%后再次上升8.5%，创下历史新高。香港市场上的中国房地产股票主要指标在周一单日跳涨近10%，交易活动异常活跃，以至于股票周转量达到了创纪录的水平。
在社交媒体上，人们热议股市疯狂行情，并讨论是否是抄底的好时机。
自2020年起，中国政府开始对房地产开发领域采取了严厉措施。从最高领导人Xi Jinping发起，突然遏制房价上涨速度，表明无一房企可以免于失败的命运，并切断了大型企业融资途径。这导致房地产市场和购房者信心大幅下挫。
然而，在连续四年出现房价下跌后，面对经济学家批评其应对不力的情况，中国高层在上周推出一系列措施刺激购房需求。中国人民银行下调房贷首付比例至15%，并允许购房者进行债务重组；同时降低了房贷利率。尽管广州的买家需满足特定条件，但过去限制未婚人士和无本地户籍家庭购房的规则已被取消。
广州市政府于周日发布公告称：“全市居民购房限令将全部解除”，希望能够促进房地产市场的稳定健康发展。
在Shanghai和Shenzhen两市，地方政府放宽了对于郊区公寓购买者的限制，并扩大了符合条件购房的人群范围。有专家指出，此举标志着地方政策制定者响应了刺激经济的呼吁，正加入推动增长的行动中来。
然而，专家也表示，这些调整是否能在当前房地产市场疲软的情况下产生持久影响尚存疑问。近周的政策措施虽引人注目，但近期已多次宣布类似放松限制措施，且效果往往只是短暂提振购房活动，未能长期稳定市场信心。
瑞士银行UBS首席中国经济学家王涛认为，“取消所有购房限制的确是一大举措”，但她同时指出，在今年早些时候取消这些限制可能产生的影响更大。这是因为许多中国人仍然对支付今天的房款后能否在未来拿到房子存有疑虑。尽管政府正在全力尝试激发市场的购买欲望，但在帮助构建公寓的企业方面做得远远不够。
早在今年初，中国政府曾尝试扮演“最后购房人”的角色，投入数十亿美元购买大量空置或多余的住房。然而问题规模之大是无法忽视的：中国仍有超过10万套未完成的已售住房被开发商破产或将破产所困扰，导致这一困境。
“允许人们购买房屋与激励他们购买之间存在差异。”王涛强调，“在中国的房地产市场中，这种区别至关重要。”
新闻来源：www.nytimes.com
原文地址：China Stocks Surge After Mortgage Curbs Are Removed
新闻日期：2024-09-30
原文摘要：
During China’s decades-long housing boom, demand for apartments was so high that cities restricted who could buy homes and limited how many they could buy. Now, the country’s largest cities are rolling back those rules as they face a different challenge: stubbornly low home prices. Guangzhou, a southern Chinese city of 19 million people, removed all restrictions on home buyers on Monday. It was the latest in a series of high-stakes economic stimulus efforts policymakers have announced in the past week. The changes in Guangzhou are in line with other strategies that two dozen smaller Chinese cities have used in recent months. Officials are trying to reverse a grinding property downturn and broader slowdown in growth that has afflicted every corner of the Chinese economy, from the young graduates looking for jobs to the old being able to retire. Two other major cities, Shenzhen and Shanghai, also relaxed their rules on Monday, without doing away with all home-buying limits. The news that one of China’s biggest cities was trying something bold was an adrenaline shot for China’s stock market, another casualty of China’s economic woes. An index of big Chinese companies traded in Shanghai or Shenzhen, the CSI 300, rose 8.5 percent after jumping nearly 16 percent last week. And the main gauge for Chinese property stocks in Hong Kong jumped by nearly 10 percent on Monday alone. So much money exchanged hands in China’s stock markets that the turnover in shares reached a record high, state media reported. On Chinese social media, people swapped stories about the frenzy in the stock market and asked whether it was time to jump in. China’s housing boom — the longest in modern history — began to turn in 2020 when the authorities, starting with the top leader, Xi Jinping, decided to abruptly bring property development to heel. Beijing signaled that no company was too big to fail and cut off funding for big firms, triggering a wave of collapses that has shaken the housing market and home buyers. But after four years of falling home prices, China’s top leaders, who have been criticized by economists for not responding forcefully, last week rolled out one measure after another to try to stimulate demand for homes. The central bank lowered the down payment requirement for mortgages to 15 percent, from 25 percent. It said it would allow home buyers to refinance their mortgages. It also cut mortgage rates. While home buyers must meet certain criteria to qualify for a mortgage in Guangzhou, limits that prevented unmarried buyers and families without local household registration were eliminated starting on Monday. “All purchase restrictions on residents’ purchase of housing in the city will be canceled,” the Guangzhou government said in a notice on Sunday, adding that it hoped the move would “promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.” In Shanghai and Shenzhen, local officials said more people could buy apartments in suburban neighborhoods and widened the category of people eligible to buy a home. “It’s definitely a milestone,” said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics, of the move in Guangzhou. House prices there are down by more than 15 percent over last year. “It seems pretty clear that local government and ministerial officials have received the call for greater stimulus and are joining the bandwagon,” he added. The question now, experts said, is whether the moves are coming too late in the housing crunch to have a far-reaching effect. While the burst of new policy in the past week is notable, officials have announced similar moves in recent months. But those changes, like lessening restrictions for home buyers, have led to only short bursts of home buying rather than boost lasting confidence in the housing market. “Removing all restrictions on home purchases may seem like a big move,” said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, the Swiss bank. But, she added, “the impact on the market may be much smaller than it would have been had the removal occurred in early 2023.” That’s because many Chinese people are still worried about whether the developer they pay today will be around tomorrow. While the government has pulled out the stops to try to get home buyers back into the market, they have done much less to help the companies that build the apartments. Earlier this year, the government tried to step in as a home buyer of last resort, providing tens of billions of dollars to buy up millions of empty and unwanted apartments. But the scale of the problem is vast: There are over 10 million other apartments not yet completed that were nonetheless sold by developers that went bankrupt or are close to bankruptcy. “Allowing people to buy homes is not the same as incentivizing them to buy homes,” said Ms. Wang. “In China’s property market it’s a distinction that matters.”
