了解以色列对真主党的致命打击为何会对伊朗、俄罗斯、朝鲜甚至中国构成全球性的威胁，需要将其置于当前国际关系格局的大背景下。
在10月7日哈马斯入侵以色列之后，我提出我们已经离开了冷战、后冷战时期以及如今的后后冷战阶段。现在的世界正围绕着两个主要联盟展开斗争：以美国领导的合作框架为基础，“包容同盟”旨在通过促进全球经济整合、开放和合作来解决全球挑战（如气候变化），并包括一部分非民主国家；而“抵抗同盟”则由俄罗斯、伊朗及朝鲜构成，这些残酷专制的政权利用对美国主导世界的反对来为其社会军事化辩护，并巩固其权力。
中国在这两个联盟之间摇摆不定——尽管其经济依赖于包容同盟的合作机遇，但政府的统治风格倾向于与抵抗同盟共享权威主义的动机和利益。
我们需要在乌克兰、加沙地带及黎巴嫩发生的战争事件中审视这个全球性的斗争背景。乌克兰试图加入西方包容的世界（欧洲），寻求脱离俄罗斯势力范围，并加入欧盟；而以色列及沙特阿拉伯则通过正常化关系尝试在中东地区扩大包容联盟，这与阿巴斯协议带来的地区联系相呼应。
在这场争夺战中，俄罗斯希望阻止乌克兰加入西方阵营（包括欧盟和北约）；伊朗、哈马斯及真主党希望遏制以色列与东方（与沙特阿拉伯的联系）融合的进程。因为如果乌克兰能够加入欧盟，则意味着欧洲“团结一致和自由”的愿景将接近实现，而俄罗斯独裁者的统治则会彻底孤立。
反之，如果以色列与沙特阿拉伯正常化关系得以实现，并进一步促进中东地区的包容联盟扩大，这将导致伊朗及其在黎巴嫩、也门及伊拉克的代理组织（包括真主党、胡塞武装和亲伊朗的什叶派民兵）全面被隔离。他们的行为导致各自国家陷入失败的状态。
哈马斯和其领导人纳斯尔拉（Hassan Nasrallah），他在周五遭以色列袭击后丧命，被认为在黎巴嫩乃至中东许多逊尼派及基督教阿拉伯世界中备受憎恨，因为真主党将其国家变为其伊朗帝国主义的基地。
我与以色列国家与安全研究所监控阿拉伯社交媒体的Ort Perlov交谈时了解到，黎巴嫩及其他地区的社交媒体充斥着对真主党的毁灭性庆祝以及呼吁在不与哈马斯完全隔绝的情况下宣布单边停火。他们担心如加沙般被摧毁，害怕再次陷入内战。这一切是伊朗下令发起战争所造成的后果。
此外，我们需要关注另一个关键点：纳赛尔拉的死亡导致黎巴嫩及以色列面临一个挑战——如何在实现国家稳定、和平和发展的前提下塑造未来。
美国拜登政府正在建立一个国际同盟网络，赋予“包容同盟”的战略优势。从亚洲东端的日本、韩国、菲律宾、澳大利亚、印度到中东地区，包括沙特阿拉伯、埃及、约旦等国以及欧洲联盟与北约成员。整个项目的基石是美国总统团队提议的以色列与沙特阿拉伯之间关系正常化，前提是沙特需要确保以色列愿意与被占领西岸巴勒斯坦权力机构展开旨在建立两个国家原则谈判。
然而，这里有个问题：关注本雅明·内塔尼亚胡总理（Benjamin Netanyahu）在联合国大会上的演讲。他深入理解“抵抗”与“包容”的国际联盟斗争。实际上，这也是他在联合国讲话的中心思想。
如何做到？贝宝特展示了两个地图。“诅咒”图上，叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗用黑色表示为横亘中东及欧洲之间的障碍性联盟；而“祝福”地图则呈现了一个绿色区域，中间带有向中东各国开放的双向红线箭头，象征连接亚洲与欧洲包容世界的桥梁。
但在贝宝特展示的“诅咒”地图中，仅以以色列表示，并未包括加沙地带和被占领西岸（暗示它们已经被并入以色列——这是当前政府的目标）的边界。这正是核心问题所在。内塔尼亚胡想要向世界传达的信息是：伊朗及其代理势力成为连结亚洲与欧洲包容世界的桥梁的主要障碍。
我持有不同的看法。整个联盟的关键是沙特以色列关系正常化的进程，以实现以色列与巴勒斯坦权力机构在西岸的和解谈判为前提，以此建立两个国家原则。
如果以色列现在开启对话，并与接受奥斯陆和平协议的改革后的巴勒斯坦权力机构探讨“两国方案”——即在以色列和巴勒斯坦之间构建一个独立的国家体系—那么这将是外交上的重大打击。此一动作将伴随并巩固对真主党和哈马斯军事打击取得胜利的结果，从而彻底孤立“抵抗同盟”的势力，并移除它们借以伪饰自己为“巴勒斯坦事业卫士”的外衣。
这会使得伊朗、哈马斯、真主党及俄罗斯甚至中国等势力受到极大冲击。
但这需要内塔尼亚胡面临更大的政治风险。这一风险远超他在黎巴嫩对真主党领导层采取军事行动所承担的风险。他必须脱离以色列所谓的“神之党”——以极端主义犹太定居者至上论为信仰，并渴望从约旦河到地中海全面控制所有领土的政党，这些政党的存在帮助内塔尼亚胡保持政权。
因此，现在面临的关键挑战在于：在对抗全球性的抵抗与包容格局斗争中，决定胜负的核心点归结于内塔尼亚胡是否有勇气对以色列“神之党”的政治力量发起类似打击，这不仅需要军事上的胜利，还需其在国内进行更为激进的政治变革。
新闻来源：www.nytimes.com
原文地址：Opinion | What This Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas-Iran Conflict is Really About
新闻日期：2024-09-29
原文摘要：
To understand why and how Israel’s devastating blow to Hezbollah is such a world-shaking threat to Iran, Russia, North Korea and even China, you have to put it in the context of the wider struggle that has replaced the Cold War as the framework of international relations today. After the Hamas invasion of Israel on Oct. 7, I argued that we were no longer in the Cold War, or the post-Cold War. We were in the post-post-Cold War: a struggle between an ad hoc “coalition of inclusion” — decent countries, not all of them democracies, who see their future as best delivered by a U.S.-led alliance nudging the world to greater economic integration, openness and collaboration to meet global challenges, like climate change — versus a “coalition of resistance,” led by Russia, Iran and North Korea: brutal, authoritarian regimes who use their opposition to the U.S.-led world of inclusion to justify militarizing their societies and maintaining an iron grip on power. China has been straddling the two camps because its economy depends on access to the coalition of inclusion while the government’s leadership shares a lot of the authoritarian instincts and interests of the coalition of resistance. You have to see the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon in the context of this global struggle. Ukraine was trying to join the world of inclusion in Europe — seeking freedom from Russia’s orbit and to join the European Union — and Israel and Saudi Arabia were trying to expand the world of inclusion in the Middle East by normalizing relations. Russia attempted to stop Ukraine from joining the West (the European Union and NATO) and Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah attempted to stop Israel from joining the East (ties with Saudi Arabia). Because if Ukraine joined the European Union, the inclusive vision of a Europe “whole and free” would be almost complete and Vladimir Putin’s kleptocracy in Russia almost completely isolated. And if Israel were allowed to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, not only would that vastly expand the coalition of inclusion in that region — a coalition already expanded by the Abraham Accords that created ties between Israel and other Arab nations — it would almost totally isolate Iran and its reckless proxies of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, all of which were driving their countries into failed states. Indeed, it is hard to exaggerate how much Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by an Israeli strike on Friday, were detested in Lebanon and many parts of the Sunni and Christian Arab world for the way they had kidnapped Lebanon and turned it into a base for Iranian imperialism. I was speaking over the weekend to Orit Perlov, who tracks Arab social media for Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. She described the flood of social media postings from across Lebanon and the Arab world celebrating Hezbollah’s demise and urging the Lebanese government to declare a unilateral cease-fire so the Lebanese Army could seize control of Southern Lebanon from Hezbollah and bring quiet to the border. The Lebanese don’t want Beirut to be destroyed like Gaza and they are truly afraid of a return of civil war, Perlov explained to me. Nasrallah had already dragged the Lebanese into a war with Israel they never wanted, but Iran ordered. This comes on top of the deep anger for the way Hezbollah joined with the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to crush the democratic uprising there. It is literally like the Wicked Witch from the Wizard of Oz is dead and now everyone is thanking Dorothy (i.e., Israel). But there is a lot of diplomatic work to be done to translate the end of Nasrallah to a sustainably better future for the Lebanese, Israelis and Palestinians. The Biden-Harris administration has been building a network of alliances to give strategic weight to the ad hoc coalition of inclusion — from Japan, Korea, the Philippines and Australia in the Far East, through India and across to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and then up through the European Union and NATO. The keystone of the whole project was the Biden team’s proposed normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which the Saudis are ready to do, provided Israel agrees to open negotiations with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank on a two-state solution. And here comes the rub. Pay very close attention to the speech by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel before the U.N. General Assembly on Friday. He understands very well the struggle between the coalitions of “resistance” and “inclusion” that I am talking about. In fact, it was central to his U.N. speech. How so? Bibi held up two maps during his address, one was titled “The Blessing” and the other “The Curse.” “The Curse” showed Syria, Iraq and Iran in black as a blocking coalition between the Middle East and Europe. The second map, “The Blessing,” showed the Middle East with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Sudan in green and a red two-way arrow going across them, as a bridge connecting the world of inclusion in Asia with the world of inclusion in Europe. But if you looked closely at Bibi’s “Curse” map, it showed Israel — but no borders with Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank (as if it had already been annexed — the goal of this Israeli government). And that is the rub. The story Bibi wants to tell the world is that Iran and its proxies are the main obstacle to the world of inclusion stretching from Europe, through the Middle East over to the Asia-Pacific region. I beg to differ. The keystone to this whole alliance is a Saudi-Israel normalization based on reconciliation between Israel and moderate Palestinians. If Israel now moved ahead and opened a dialogue on two states for two peoples with a reformed Palestinian Authority, which has already accepted the Oslo peace treaty, it would be the diplomatic knockout blow that would accompany and solidify the military knockout blow Israel just delivered to Hezbollah and Hamas. It would totally isolate the forces of “resistance” in the region and take away their phony shield — that they are the defenders of the Palestinian cause. Nothing would rattle Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Russia — even China — more. But to do that Netanyahu would have to take a political risk even greater than the military risk he just took in killing the leadership of Hezbollah, a.k.a. “The Party of God.” Netanyahu would have to break with the Israeli “Party of God" — the coalition of far-right Jewish settler supremacists and messianists who want Israel to permanently control all the territory from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean, with no border lines in between — just like on Bibi’s U.N. map. Those parties keep Bibi in power, so he would need to replace them with Israeli centrist parties, which I know would collaborate with him on such a move. So there you have the big challenge of the day: The struggle between the world of inclusion and the world of resistance comes down to many things, but none more — today — than Netanyahu’s willingness to follow up his blow to the “Party of God” in Lebanon by dealing a similar political blow to the “Party of God” in Israel.
