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中国政府金融官员于周二举行了一场罕见的高规格新闻发布会，宣布了一系列举措，包括：
1. 降低一年期政策贷款利率；
2. 加大信贷投放力度等措施。
紧随其后，在周三，中央银行对一年期政策贷款利率进行了下调。此前数月，经济学家们的预期较为悲观，而这次行动超出了他们的预测，市场上对此反应积极。这被视为对中国股市的提振，为正处于低谷的国家经济提供了支撑。
《经济学人》分析师认为，北京政府采取的这一系列措施旨在防止经济增长放缓，并将2024年的增长率锁定在5%的目标上。根据该团队的SHOK模型评估，在未来一年中，这一刺激可能带来1%左右GDP的增长幅度。然而，这更多是“促进增长”的短期刺激措施，而非全面复苏的经济解决方案。
UBS首席中国经济学家王涛指出，尽管这一政策行动有所提振，但对今年和明年的经济增长预期并未产生实质影响，仍维持其预测为4.6%及随后一年为4%。问题在于，不少经济学家指出中国经济面临的真正瓶颈是有效需求不足，并非资金供给限制。
许多分析师强调，解决经济难题的关键在于财政刺激计划的推出。为了帮助开发商完成项目、减轻民众财务压力并激励消费信心等目的，可能需要采取以下措施：
1. 为中国的房地产企业实施某种形式的资本注入；
2. 加强养老金和医疗福利以稳定家庭财务状况；
3. 中央政府对地方政府提供大规模财政援助。
中国问题专家加布里埃尔·威尔道（Gabriel Wildau）预测，在未来几周，中国政府可能会公布更多财政方面的决策。这可能与将于下周举行的中共政治局委员会议有关，主席习近平将召集此次会议。
同时存在一个风险：如果缺乏相应的财政措施来匹配当前的货币宽松政策，这次刺激行动可能仅停留在表面，并不能产生持久的影响。
美国的家庭净资产在上一季度出现了增长，部分原因在于房地产价值的上升。然而，这并不一定转化为消费提振——Stephen Stanley 警告称。他指出，美国家庭的实际财富情况已处于历史高位（尤其是股票持有比例），这在过去几十年中对经济增长有显著影响。然而，由于疫情期间低利率的“锁定”效应以及当前市场条件下的流动性约束，这一效果在当下的经济环境中可能受到限制。
Stanley 进一步解释称，在未来一年中，消费增长可能会放缓，因为家庭支出主要依赖于就业和收入的实际增长。这预示着未来几个月内，消费增速可能出现适度下滑，需要政府通过其他方式来支撑经济。
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新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：World Economy Latest: China’s Shock-and-Awe Plan Left a Piece Missing
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
I’m , an economics editor in Boston. Today we’re looking at China’s latest economic stimulus package. Send us feedback and tips to or get in touch on X via . And if you aren’t yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so .It probably says more about China’s lack of policy stimulus to date that the package of monetary measures announced Tuesday amounted to the strongest set of steps seen in years.At a rare, high-level press conference, the government’s financial officials a host of actions including:In a follow-up move on Wednesday, the central bank cut the rate charged on its one-year policy loans by .After months of underwhelming economists, the effort — overseen by People’s Bank of China Governor — largely exceeded their expectations this time around. in rare relief for the nation’s beaten down equities. The production “speaks to the urgency felt in Beijing to head off and get growth on track for the 5% target” for 2024, and of Bloomberg Economics wrote. The team’s SHOK model indicates a boost of as much as about 1% of GDP over the coming year.But at the end of the day it’s a “growth boost,” not an “economy fix,” Shu and Zhu wrote.For Wang Tao, UBS’s chief China economist, the package wasn’t even enough to on growth. She kept her forecast for gross domestic product this year at 4.6% and next year’s at 4%.The missing element, many economists said, was a fiscal stimulus to pump-prime spending and finally address a that’s hammered consumer confidence.“The real bottleneck faced by the economy is a lack of effective demand rather than loanable funds available,” Nomura economists led by Ting Lu wrote — in an observation made by multiple observers Tuesday.What could a fiscal fix, , look like? A recapitalization of some sort for China’s developers could help them complete buildings and move them off their balance sheets. Stepped up pension or healthcare provisions could reassure hard-pressed households and reduce incentives for saving. Large-scale assistance from Beijing for local governments would alleviate their .Gabriel Wildau, a China specialist at advisory firm Teneo, is among those anticipating announcements on the fiscal front, “in the coming weeks, if not sooner.”President Xi Jinping is set to convene the Communist Party’s 24-member Politburo ahead of a weeklong annual holiday starting Tuesday, offering one potential date. The risk is that without fiscal measures to match, Tuesday’s shock-and-awe on the monetary front could .US households’ net worth last quarter, propelled in part by swelling property values. But that may not translate into a stimulus for consumer spending, Stephen Stanley cautions.Homeowners are in fact so well positioned that their equity as a share of values has hit the highest since 1958, Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets, wrote in a note Tuesday. Trouble is, they cannot easily cash out the equity as they once could. That’s because many would lose the rock-bottom mortgage rates they locked in years ago.The so-called wealth effect “has likely been far more limited than it might have been under a different interest rate profile,” Stanley wrote. That leaves spending reliant on job and real income growth, which he characterizes as “” this year. In short, consumption is set to moderate in coming months, he said. Enjoy Economics Daily? Plus, here are some newsletters we think you might like
