欧洲商品股票本周因为中国政府刺激措施的提振，引发了市场的反弹。在政策发布后，矿业股跳涨，这是自去年11月有记录以来的最大涨幅。然而，投资者质疑这些措施是否足以扭转资源公司股价的命运。
即便如此，欧洲矿产企业仍面临今年第三季度最严重的下滑局面，尽管经历了周二4.4%的上涨，他们离2021年的表现仍相去甚远；能源领域的状况则更为糟糕，连续四年未见如此惨淡的季度表现。中国作为全球最大的商品进口国，其经济复苏的不确定性成为影响市场的重要因素。
“这些声明会在一定程度上提振信心和股价，但新的刺激措施不太可能显著推动国内经济增长。”巴尔银集团的股票策略师指出，“我们还未看到中国暴露于欧洲资源公司能够实现可持续的复苏。”
铁矿石今年表现疲弱，在第三季度下滑超过8%，这是由于中国经济放缓降低了需求。与此同时，澳大利亚和巴西的主要低成本矿山大幅增产，导致市场陷入供应过剩状态。
“中期来看，商品股前景黯淡。”State Street环球市场高级多资产策略师评论道。
至于石油领域，中国宏观经济疲软与OPEC+国家潜在的增产构成双重压力，使得油价下跌约10%。今年，能源和材料板块在欧洲斯托克600指数中表现垫底，这一板块相对市场的折价反映了对需求前景的悲观预期。“尽管今年表现出色，但机构投资者并未热衷于这类股票。”该策略师继续说道。
中国政府近期采取的措施凸显了他们对可能无法达到约5%年度增长目标的警觉。然而，在长期内缓解通缩压力和房地产行业困境方面，人们仍存疑虑。
“整体而言，我对这感到相当怀疑，”Veitmane 补充道，“这太少了，而且太迟了。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Stimulus May Not Be Enough to Revive Commodity Stocks
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
There are already concerns that this week’s rally in European commodity stocks, spurred by Chinese stimulus measures, may not last. Mining stocks jumped the most since November 2022 after authorities in Beijing announced a to boost the economy and tackle the crisis in China’s property sector. The question that’s surfaced among investors is whether this is all enough to change the outlook for shares in resources companies.European miners are still heading for their deepest third-quarter slump since 2021, even after Tuesday’s 4.4% surge. For energy, there hasn’t been a worse quarter in four years. Much of that misery is down to the uncertain recovery in China, the number-one importer of commodities. “The announcements will help with the relief as investor confidence prompts upwards, however the new stimulus is unlikely to significantly boost the economic growth in the mainland,” said , an equity strategist at Bank Julius Baer. “We don’t see as of yet a sustainable recovery for Chinese exposed miners and energy companies within Europe.”Iron ore has been among the worst performing commodities this year, sliding more than 8% in the third quarter as China’s slowdown has hurt demand. At the same time, major low-cost miners in Australia and Brazil have been boosting supplies, driving the market into a surplus.“The medium-term outlook for commodity stocks remains bleak,” said , senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. When it comes to oil, aside from worries over the flagging Chinese economy, the prospect of increased supplies from OPEC+ producers has dragged on prices, which are down by around 10% so far this quarter. Energy and mining stocks are among the in Europe’s Stoxx 600 this year and the gloom clouding the demand picture has fueled a discount they trade at relative to the broader market. “Following strong underperformance this year energy and material stocks are relatively cheap,” Veitmane said. “However, institutional investors show little appetite for them.”This week’s measures from China showed authorities are taking seriously warnings the country risks missing its growth target of around 5% this year. But doubts remain over how effective the steps will be in easing longer-term deflationary pressures and the woes across real estate.Read more: “In general, I’m very skeptical,” Veitmane said. “It’s too little and too late from China.”
