2024年至今，一些与中国经济直接挂钩的股票表现欠佳。这主要因为投资者更倾向于购买像制药、电信这样的防御性板块股票。这种策略在担心全球经济增长可能因美国经济衰退风险及中国经济发展放缓的压力下得到强化。
然而，近期动态出现了转折点。首先，美联储出乎意料地大幅下调了利率，提振了对美国内部能够实现“软着陆”的预期。接着，中国央行推出了一系列全面的货币刺激措施，这使得市场态度似乎倾向于循环类股票——担心会错失即将到来的股价上涨行情。
巴克莱策略团队表示：“如果宏观经济与盈利前景在2025年继续向好，市场上很可能出现更多资金转向股市的局面。”他们指出，“中国汽车、矿业、化工等行业及中国相关投资组合被低估了，因此此类板块存在上升潜力，并可能成为大多数投资者需要承担‘痛苦交易’的对象。”
据数据，目前与中国经济关联的股票已累计下跌约15%，而相关股票则上涨了8.4%。
与此同时，Citi团队也在分析中强调，尽管中国方面的刺激措施不大可能成为彻底改变游戏规则的因素，但它们确实有助于提振对循环类股票的态度。他们认为，“在悲观情绪被正面事件颠覆的情况下，这代表着市场心态的转折。”
上述分析揭示了经济决策与股市动态之间微妙而复杂的关系。随着全球和中国的宏观经济政策调整，投资者正面临策略调整的挑战与机遇。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Stimulus Leaves Investors Facing ‘Pain Trade’, Barclays Says
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
Investors who have snubbed stocks tied to Chinese growth may face a “pain trade” after the world’s second-biggest economy unleashed and the Federal Reserves cut interest rates, strategists at Barclays Plc said.Cyclical stocks have been among the worst performers of 2024 as investors flocked into defensive shares, such as pharmaceuticals and telecommunications, amid fears global growth would suffer from a possible US recession and a sluggish Chinese economy. Sentiment, however, started changing last week with the Fed’s bigger-than-expected interest-rate cut lifting hopes of a US soft landing. Now, with China’s central bank unveiling a broad package of monetary stimulus measures, the mood toward cyclical stocks might swing decisively to fears of missing out on a rally.“There is dry powder for more rotation and cash deployment into equities if macro/earnings fundamentals continue to hold into 2025,” Barclays strategists led by wrote in a note. “China proxies like autos, miners, chemicals and our China exposure basket look particularly under-owned, so more upside would likely be a pain trade for most investors.” most tied to China’s economy has lost about 15% so far in 2024 while rose 8.4%. Over at Citigroup Inc., European equity strategists including , also argued that while the stimulus measures were unlikely to be game changer for China, they would likely help tilt sentiment toward cyclical stocks. “This represents a case in which downbeat sentiment is undone by a positive catalyst,” her team wrote in a note.
