交易员正积极买入中国的五年期国债，这部分债券因其较低的风险，即央行较少对其进行干预而受到青睐。本周国债收益率下滑约5个基点至1.68%，创下自Bloomberg从2002年开始整理数据以来的最低记录。
数据显示，今年每个月均出现了净流入五年期国债的情形（除八月外），这反映出持续旺盛的需求，特别是对于收益曲线中部的债券而言。这一趋势与本周出台的一系列刺激措施相呼应，这些措施导致了中国国内和国际市场情绪的提振。
分析指出，在较长时期内债券风险较低的情况下，五年期国债正处于“理想位置”。预计收益率将进一步下降至1.35%。BofA Global Research 的亚洲外汇策略师认为：“除非我们看到大规模的财政刺激举措以稳定消费与房地产市场，否则中国利率下行的趋势不大可能逆转。”
与此同时，中国人民银行宣布下调了一年期政策贷款利率，这是昨日发布的一系列全面经济刺激计划的一部分，旨在提振世界第二大经济体的信心。分析人士预计，这预示着更进一步的关键措施，其中包括7天逆回购利率的可能调降。
当前市场对于降低存款利率持有积极预期，澳大利亚及新西兰银行集团的高级策略师指出这一情况下的国债吸引力，并预估未来将维持强劲的增长势头。“我们可以预见在接下来几周内出现收益率上升的趋势。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Traders Flock to China’s 5-Year Bonds on Lower Intervention Risk
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
Traders are snapping up China’s five-year government bonds, attracted by the lower risk of central bank intervention for this maturity.Yields declined nearly five basis points to 1.68% on Wednesday, set for a record low, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2002. The five-year bonds have seen net inflows every month this year, except in August, the data show.The trend highlights persistent demand, particularly in the middle of the yield curve, and coincides with this week’s stimulus measures, which have pushed up the Chinese and . The five-year bonds are in “the sweet spot” with lower intervention risk compared to longer-tenor debt, said , Asia FX strategist at BofA Global Research, who expects the yield to fall further to 1.35%. “Until we see a meaningful step-up in fiscal stimulus to stabilize consumption and the property market, the downward trend in China rates is unlikely to reverse,” she said.On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China cut the interest rate charged on its one-year policy loans, following a broad stimulus package unveiled a day prior to revive confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. Analysts see the cut to the MLF rate as a prelude to more significant steps, including a likely reduction in the rate on seven-day reverse repurchase notes.“The belly of the curve now looks attractive” as the markets expect a cut in deposit rates, said , senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. He foresees continued momentum in the notes. “We see bull steepening in the next few weeks.”
