最近中国政府的一系列举措，正在提振铁矿石、铜以及众多其他商品的价格，市场人士押注更多经济援助将推动这些资产价格进一步上涨。继周二的消息公布后，多个指标已升至数月高点，铁矿石价格亦朝向每吨高位攀升，马来西亚的货币——里-inggit亦反弹至2021年中以来最强水平。
市场日益相信中国的市场或许即将迎来可持续性复苏，这在多年下滑之后出现，原因在于经济增长放缓以及持续的房地产危机。不过，乐观情绪同时被谨慎态度所制约；以前类似行情的短暂回暖往往因焦点迅速回到国内经济问题上而告终。
瑞银资产管理公司的新兴市场与亚太地区固定收益业务负责人指出：“我们认为将会有后续的刺激措施。”下一轮政策可能以财政手段为主，并且对亚洲货币和大宗商品而言都是利好消息。另一家公司Federated Hermes Asia ex-Japan 部门主管形容，这次政府的应对策略为“多方位、强力”的方式，凸显了中国政府解决国内问题的决心。
与此同时，风险资产在过去的24小时内受到了购买狂潮追捧，尤其是与中国经济有密切联系的澳元和工业商品。其中，亚洲股市成为受益者之一，该地区与中国贸易紧密相连，其指数升至2022年2月以来最高点。
分析人士认为，“财政跟进至关重要。”BNP Paribas SA经济团队成员写道。“这些措施超出了我们的预期，并与房地产和股票领域的支持政策相结合，应能提振市场风险情绪。考虑到市场原本的低期望值。”Federated Hermes公司亚洲（不含日本）主管将其描述为“全面、强力”的应对方案，这表明了中国政府解决中国问题的决心。
此外，来自对冲基金Tribeca Investment Partners Pty 的一位负责人指出，“我们正在与中国的联系人交谈，他们都处于‘非常乐观’的状态。接下来的几天将决定这次反弹能否持续。”
政治局会议将在中国领导人习近平主持下进行，预计会在下周长达一周的长假前召开，可能涉及更多针对未售房产购买的融资增加、提高社会福利支出等政策。财政部门亦可推动地方政府发行更多债券以加速基础设施投资。
然而，有市场观察家提醒投资者保持警惕，因为即将举行的美国总统大选以及特朗普再次当选后可能会引发的贸易紧张局势带来风险；这种不确定性可能再次减少对风险资产的需求。Timefolio Asset Management Co. 和 Magellan Investments Holding Ltd. 等公司指出，虽然存在需求疲软、中国房地产市场问题和通货紧缩等其他挑战。
对于Hedge Fund K2 Asset Management的研究负责人而言，“这是一个短暂的买进信号。”他表示。“直到需要另一轮大规模举措时为止。中国还需要更多。”
请就新兴市场是否看涨发表观点，并预测接下来一年最佳交易策略，参与MLIV Pulse投票。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Aussie Dollar Rises to Highest Since February 2023 Ahead of CPI
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
China’s latest policy blitz is fueling a rally in everything from iron ore and copper to , and traders are betting on more aid to drive further gains.In the wake of Tuesday’s announcement, climbed to the highest in over two years while iron ore headed back toward a ton. The jumped to levels last seen in March 2022, and Malaysia’s ringgit appreciated to the strongest since mid-2021.Confidence is building that China’s markets may finally be on the cusp of a sustainable rebound after years of decline fueled by slowing growth and a prolonged property crisis. But the optimism is by caution, with market watchers noting that similar rallies in the past were shortlived as focus quickly shifted back to the nation’s economic troubles.“We do think that there will be a follow up to the stimulus,” said , head of emerging market and Asia Pacific fixed income at UBS Asset Management. The next package is likely to be fiscal, and “that’s positive for Asian currencies, it’s positive for commodities,” she said.Beijing’s latest efforts triggered 24 hours of buying of China-related assets, including the Australian dollar and industrial . Asian shares were a key beneficiary given the region’s trade links with China, with the climbing to the highest level since February 2022 on Wednesday.“Fiscal follow-up will be the key,” BNP Paribas SA economists including wrote in a note. The latest measures “exceeded our expectations and combined with support policies on the property and equity front, should boost risk appetite, especially given how low market expectations were.”, head of Asia ex-Japan at Federated Hermes, described the package as a “multifaceted, strong” approach, which underscored the government’s seriousness in tackling China’s problems. of hedge fund Tribeca Investment Partners Pty said conversations with China contacts indicated they’re all “very bullish” right now. The next few days may be crucial in determining if the rally continues.Authorities may announce more fiscal measures as President Xi Jinping’s 24-member Politburo is set to meet ahead of a week-long annual holiday starting Tuesday. include more funding to buy up unsold homes and greater spending on social welfare. The finance ministry can also push local governments to sell more bonds to ramp up infrastructure spending.Some market watchers are calling for caution, noting that there are risks on the horizon. This includes the upcoming US presidential election and threats of further tariffs if Donald Trump wins. Escalating trade tensions may soften demand for risk assets again.Timefolio Asset Management Co. and Magellan Investments Holding Ltd. note that other issues persist, including weak demand, China’s property-market woes and a . For now, the rally in risk assets may have scope to extend.“This is a short-lived, legitimate risk-on signal to buy,” said , head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management. “That is, until another big bazooka is required. You need a lot more from China.”Are you bullish on emerging markets? Share your views on the best trades for the rest of the year in a quick MLIV Pulse .
