周三尾盘时，中国市场表现转好，但涨幅从之前的高位有所收窄，市场仍对国家出台的一系列支援措施能否有效拉动经济存有疑虑。基准的上证综合指数最终上涨了1.5%，当天早些时候的高点为3.4%；全年的指数跌幅暂保持在0.9%左右。同样地，沪深300指数涨势从此前的3.4%回落至0.5%。这一增速放缓显示出了投资者对于北京当局提振市场和经济信心的能力有所保留，尤其是鉴于政策实施细节缺乏进一步披露的情况。
尽管市场已得到加大了的国家支持，特别是国有基金所偏好的交易所交易基金（ETF）的流入量显著增加，但这些因素并未能完全改变市场的谨慎情绪。北京Chanson & Co投资银行的一位董事分析称，“这举措更多是让看跌者有机会套现获利，并可能在长期形成资产泡沫。”今年初市场先前的上涨势头迅速消退，在周二密集发布了一轮刺激措施后，市场分析师对此仍持警戒态度。
近期的指数上扬——以沪深300指数为例，该指数已连续六天上涨——若政策制定者未能解决长期以来制约中国经济的问题，则可能会很快变为昙花一现。而今以来，中国股市经历了涨跌循环的周期，政府碎片化的市场恢复策略仅带来了短暂的回升。
有分析认为，香港股市涨幅可能部分归因于市场上的“空头平仓”活动。JPMorgan Chase & Co.策略师团队指出，在周二，空头比例从市面总交易量中下降到13.6%，这一比率低于2016年以来的标准偏差范围一个标准差以下，表明许多空头头寸已被平仓。
然而，投资者普遍欢迎这轮包罗万象的刺激政策。包括向股市提供流动性支持以及降息等措施在内，该系列政策激发了对政府准备好武器应对根本问题的希望，比如消费者信心低迷。中国央行表示将建立一个回购机制，允许证券公司、基金和保险公司借入其资金用于购买股票，并考虑设立股票稳定基金。同时，证监会发函呼吁上市公司增强投资者回报。
JP Morgan Asset Management全球市场策略师在报告中指出：“我们相信这些协调一致的政策声明为未来提供更多政策支持铺平了道路，并提升了2025年经济复苏的可能性。”他还表示，“考虑到私营部门公司利润和企业基本面已经得到改善，中国股市存在价值投资机会，同时也因全球市场昂贵而提供了分散投资的机会”。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Chinese Stocks Extend Gains on Continued Economic Stimulus Optimism
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
Chinese stocks ended Wednesday higher, though paring from earlier gains as worries linger about whether a host of support measures announced Tuesday would turn around the economy.The onshore benchmark rose 1.5% at close after climbing as much as 3.4% on the day. The gauge remained 0.9% lower for the year. The advance in the also was slashed to 0.5% from its earlier ascent to 3.4%. The weakening momentum underscored investors’ skepticism about Beijing’s capability to revive the market and economy, given the absence of more details on policy implementation. The paring came despite enhanced state support, with the turnover in some exchange-traded funds favored by the sovereign fund seeing spikes in inflows.“The policies don’t really address the root problems facing the real economy,” said , a director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co. “They at most provided bears with an opportunity to cash in and may create asset bubbles in the longer run.” With the previous rallies this year fizzling, market watchers sounded caution despite a blitz of stimulus measures announced Tuesday. The benchmark’s recent gains — the CSI 300 index rose for six straight days — may be fleeting if policymakers fail to address the country’s long-standing problems. Chinese equities have been trapped in a start-stop cycle of gains and losses for most of this year, as the government’s piecemeal approach to reviving the market has resulted only in brief rebounds. The rally in Hong Kong stocks may have been driven by , according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including . The short sales ratio as a percentage of the market turnover dipped to 13.6% on Tuesday, one standard deviation below the average since 2016, indicating many shorts have been covered, they said. Still, investors largely applauded the comprehensiveness of the stimulus package, which included liquidity support for the stock market and a policy rate cut. The policies also fanned that the government — with the Politburo set to meet ahead of a week-long annual holiday starting Oct. 1 — may be readying ammunition to address deep-rooted issues, such as weak consumer confidence.The People’s Bank of China said it will set up a swap facility to allow securities firms, funds and insurance companies to tap its funds to purchase equities. The central bank is also weighing plans for a stock stabilization fund. The securities regulator later issued urging listed companies to boost investment returns. Read more: “We believe these coordinated policy announcements could pave the way for further policy support and raise the possibility of an economic upcycle in 2025,” , global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, wrote in a note. “Combined with private sector companies that have improved their profit margin and corporate fundamentals, we do see value opportunities in Chinese equities, and diversification opportunities given the expensive markets around the world.”
