据诺贝尔奖得主所言，在美国减少与中国之间的经济依赖之际，全球贸易流向正经历剧变，为发展中国家带来了机遇与挑战。
斯蒂格利茨教授指出，在这场美中贸易战的背景下，新的国际贸易关系正在兴起，涉及亚洲与拉丁美洲等多个地区。他说：“所有原本在中国进行的生产活动将转移到其他国家”。这种变化表现为货物从中国转至越南、或中国流向墨西哥，“这就改变了贸易流向”。
作为哥伦比亚大学经济学教授并曾于2001年荣获诺贝尔经济学奖，斯蒂格利茨表示全球观察到一种现象——美国正在“去风险”，也就是通过与中国脱钩来减少经济敞口。这一动向对自二战后确立的全球化体系构成冲击。
他表示：“在这个新环境下，处于有利地位将会是一大机遇，尤其是对新兴市场和发展中国家而言。”对于那些主要向中国出口原材料、如拉丁美洲经济体等国家尤其如此。这些国家可能在某种程度上通过“产业升级”获益——即在国内生产更多增值产品，实现经济结构的提升。
然而，若中美两大经济体之间的关系恶化并导致美国收紧对中国的贸易限制，这将对新兴市场产生广泛而深远的影响。“那将是严峻的情景，极为复杂”，斯蒂格利茨警告道。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：UNGA: US-China Tensions Are Upending Global Trade Flows, Joseph Stiglitz Says
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
Rising tensions between the US and China are starting to upend global trade flows, posing both an opportunity and a risk for the developing world, according to Nobel Laureate .As the US reduces its exposure to China, new trade relationships are popping up from Asia to Latin America, Stiglitz said during a Bloomberg New Economy event in New York Wednesday. “All that production, which is in China, will be moving out,” he said. “We’re in the first stage where there’s a massive circumvention where goods go from China to Vietnam, China to Mexico. That’s just changing the pattern of flow.”Stiglitz, a professor of economics at Columbia University who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001, said the perception that China poses a threat is prompting the US to “de-risk.” That is bringing changes to the system of global trade that has been largely in place since the end of World War II.“In that new world, being on the right side is going to be very important and that is going to be a big opportunity for emerging markets and developing countries,” Stiglitz said. That’s particularly true, he said, for producers of raw materials, like Latin American economies that export heavily to China. Some of those countries may benefit by “moving up the value chain” and producing more goods at home.But if the relationship between the world’s two largest economies worsens and the US clamps down on trade with China, there will be broad implications for emerging markets. “That’s a dark scenario and a really hard one,” he said.
