华尔街分析师正在急速提升他们对电动车制造商特斯拉第三季度销售额的预期。至少有四位分析师上调了其第三季度交付数据的预估，这部分数据将于下周公布。所有迹象显示，中国市场销量正开始回升，这是特斯拉的关键市场，并且在全球电动汽车市场上占据重要地位。
巴克莱银行的分析师莱维（Levy）指出：“这一中国市场的强劲表现正值关键时刻，有助于抵消美国和欧洲持续疲软的趋势。”他现在预计今年9月底结束的三个季度内交付量约为47万辆汽车，较之前预测的46.2万辆有所增加。
在全行业销量下滑、竞争对手推出更具性价比产品的背景下，下周若能实现健康交货则将大大缓解关于需求减弱的担忧。尽管特斯拉投资者主要关注于10月10日即将举行的“Robotaxi事件”，该活动期间电动汽车制造商将发布备受期待的自动驾驶技术，但对于公司核心业务的质疑仍可能影响股价。
莱维表示：“如果达到或超过预期的业绩表现，将有可能推动股价在 Robotaxi 事件那天进一步走强，提醒投资者至少目前关于基本面的担忧已消散。”
特斯拉股价今年大多数时间都经历了大幅波动，至今仅上涨了2%，与同期标普500指数超过20%的增长相比，这一表现相对较弱。不过，自8月初以来，股价已经出现了显著反弹，涨幅约为33%，这反映出投资者对经济前景及美联储计划开始降低利率的信心增强。
特斯拉CEO时常指出，高借贷成本会抑制大型商品如汽车的购买需求，这是导致销量疲软的主要因素之一。因此，在美联储开启降息周期和中国实施提振经济增长政策的背景下，特斯拉可能将获得巨大收益。
“在中国市场，第三季度预计将是特斯拉表现最好的一个季度，尽管欧洲销售较弱，但Cybertruck交付量支撑了美国市场需求。”Piper Sandler分析师对此评论道。该分析师预估交付量约为45.9万辆汽车。
RBC Capital Markets的分析师预计将为约46万辆单位，较之前估计的45.4万辆有所增加，而Baird的预测则高达48万辆。UBS分析师则认为数量大约为47万辆。华尔街分析师整体预计平均交付量约为46.2万辆。
不过，多数分析家指出，在市场对电动汽车销售数据进行消化后，投资者可能会迅速转向关注即将于稍后举行的“Robotaxi事件”。Baird的分析师卡洛（Kallo）表示：“从我们的角度来看，特斯拉近期的表现十分吸引人，交货量有望接近甚至超过当前共识预期。”
不过，考虑到即将举办的“Robotaxi事件”时间点，“即使交付数量与预期相当或偏弱，投资者也会将此视为对一个即将到来的重大催化因素的观察，而该催化因素在接下来不久就会出现。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Tesla's (TSLA) Potential 'Best Quarter' in China Raises Expectations
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
With possibly looking at its “” in China, Wall Street pros are rushing to increase their outlooks for the electric-vehicle maker’s quarterly sales.At least four analysts have boosted their estimates for Tesla’s third-quarter delivery numbers, which are due next week. All point to signs that sales are starting to pick up in China, a key area for Tesla and a major market for electric cars globally.“This China strength comes at a very opportune time for Tesla, helping to offset ongoing weakness in the US and Europe,” said , who follows the company for Barclays. Levy now expects deliveries of about 470,000 vehicles in the three months ending in September, up from 462,000 previously.A healthy delivery figure next week would go a long way in allaying fears about weakening demand amid an industry-wide slowdown and the emergence of competitively priced rivals. Though Tesla investors are mainly focused on the so-called Robotaxi event on Oct. 10, when the EV maker unveils its highly anticipated self-driving technology, doubts about its core business can still weigh on the stock price. “A beat could drive further strength in the stock into Robotaxi Day, serving as a reminder that at least for now concerns on fundamentals have dissipated,” Levy said.Tesla shares have swung wildly for most of this year and are up just 2% so far, largely sitting out the strong rally that has driven the S&P 500 Index more than 20% over the same time. But they have staged a sharp recovery since early August, climbing about 33%, as investors grow more confident about the economy and the Federal Reserve’s plan to start lowering interest rates. Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer regularly points to high borrowing costs, which can dampen the demand for big-ticket purchases like cars, as a key contributor to weaker sales. As such, the Fed embarking on an easing cycle, along with the news of a big drive in China to revive its economy, are a potential bonanza for Tesla. “In China, third-quarter seems likely to be Tesla’s best quarter ever, and although sales in Europe are weak, Cybertruck deliveries are supporting demand in the United States,” said Piper Sandler analyst . The analyst expects deliveries for the period to be around 459,000 vehicles.RBC Capital Markets’ expects it to be around 460,000 units, up from 454,000 prior, while Baird’s models 480,000. UBS analyst expects the number to be about 470,000. Wall Street is estimating average deliveries of about 462,000 units, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Still, most analysts note that investors once the EV sales figures are digested, many investors may quickly look beyond them to the key Robotaxi event.“The near-term setup for Tesla is attractive in our view as we see deliveries tracking towards meeting or exceeding current consensus,” Baird’s Kallo said. But with the Robotaxi unveil scheduled shortly afterward “even an in-line or weaker deliveries number would be viewed by investors as a look through with a significant potential catalyst coming soon after.”
