北京近期保持了相对低调的姿态，在全球瞩目的TikTok这一中国本土科技业诞生的首个国际成功案例面临美国生存危机时。多年来围绕是否因国家安全考量而禁止TikTok的争论持续不息，然而最近的趋势表明，中国政府对美国可能采取禁令的威胁更为敏感。
面对立法强制要求字节跳动（TikTok的母公司）剥离其资产的措施在国会和司法系统中的进展，中国外交部发言人选择了含糊其辞地回避评论，并引用了先前声明。例如，在三月份商务部坚决保护合法权益的立场声明。然而现在，北京正在谨慎行事。
如果美国禁令成真，这种沉默不应被误解为放弃抵抗。拥有中国第二大经济体市场触角的美国公司，包括苹果Inc. 和特斯拉Inc.等大型企业，若冲突升级，也可能面临意想不到的影响。决策者需明智地认识到，中国不会低估其可能采取的报复性手段来回应所谓的“不公凌辱”。
最近，D.C.巡回法院的一次高调听审对TikTok不利，禁令可能性从70%跌至30%，依据Bloomberg Intelligence的数据预测。如果在法庭斗争中失败，逆转这一损失的可能性仅为10%。
尽管官方发言人在公开场合保持克制，中国国营媒体提供了有关政府意见的洞察。在美国参议院通过禁令立法后不久，《中国日报》刊发社论警告称，“一个世纪的屈辱不会因TikTok而重演”。该文章暗示中国政府视美国对这款广受欢迎的应用的攻击为西方过去对中国的剥削历史的一部分，追溯到英国军队强迫中国人购买鸦片的时代。它警告说，任何试图施加压迫和服从的努力都将失败。
在其他媒体平台上发表的评论也指责美国企图“劫掠”字节跳动。甚至在中国-美国关系委员会中，也有声音认为北京决不会允许将其核心算法以强制方式出售给外国买家。
2020年，中国政府调整了出口法规以保护此类举动，这通常被广泛解释为对禁令最初讨论的回应。TikTok基于推荐引擎的成功在于其能个性化地将内容推送给用户，维持他们不断的滚动和参与，这是应用胜过竞争对手的秘密。一些评论家认为，在当前宏观经济问题下，考虑到吸引外国投资的重要性正在降至历史低点，北京可能不会采取报复措施或发出进一步阻碍外商投资的政策信号。
然而，这忽略了中国政府为了更广泛的政策目标而对市场实施的严格管控，并且这种管理在最近才有所放松。如果过去几年揭示了政府优先事项的任何信息，那就是投资者回报和科技行业的快速增长不再居于首位。习近平主席强调“共同繁荣”与强化技术独立的高质量创新已占据主导地位。
美国清楚其与TikTok博弈所面临的不对称性，但这也可能成为一把双刃剑。中国阻挠销售可能会让外国投资远离，但传达一个信息即任何在美国市场获取收益的尝试都不是安全的——这对于它们来说也是一种胜利。
在等待美国总统选举结果之际，北京高层也在私下考虑策略选择。尽管唐纳德·特朗普在此问题上发起了整场纷争，但在竞选期间他表达了反对彻底禁止TikTok的观点，理由是它将提升Meta Platforms Inc（原Facebook）的竞争地位。
立法者迅速填补了北京沉默留下的空白，他们不仅激烈捍卫言论自由的宪法权利，同时努力压制使用该平台表达自我的用户。尽管TikTok被视为国家安全威胁，拜登政府及其竞选人已将其用作关键竞选工具。椰子树梗图和“女娃娃”氛围推动了卡玛拉·哈里斯民调支持率的提升就源自这个应用。讽刺的是，在旨在保护以色列和乌克兰的外国援助法案中，通过了针对社交媒体安全风险的禁令，而立法者本应制定全面法律来保护美国人的数据安全，并防范所有应用对用户构成威胁。
在这样的背景下禁止TikTok只会为中国精心打磨的宣传机器提供最终的弹药。也许北京明智地保持沉默，让美国的行为自证其言。
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这是针对原文的一次优化翻译，旨在符合中国人的阅读习惯和语言风格，同时确保保留了原文的核心信息与语境。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Silence on US TikTok Ban Speaks Volumes
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
Beijing has been rather quiet as TikTok, the first globally successful app born from its domestic tech sector, fights for its life in the US.The debate over whether Washington will ban TikTok due to perceived national security concerns related to the Beijing base of its parent company, ByteDance Ltd., has simmered for years. In the past, Chinese officials haven’t shied from rhetoric opposition. But now, as a ban seems more likely than ever to take hold, Beijing is holding its cards close to the chest.In the months since legislation that would force TikTok to divest from ByteDance has made its way through Congress and now the courts, spokespeople for China’s Foreign Ministry have demurred requests for comment, referring to previous remarks. (Namely, a March statement from commerce officials that China will resolutely “safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”)But it would be premature to interpret the recent silence as any sort of indication that Beijing will take this lying down. US firms with exposure to the world’s second-largest economy, from Apple Inc. to Tesla Inc., should brace for collateral blows if a escalates. And policymakers would be unwise to underestimate the might Beijing may deploy in response to what it has previously decried as unfair “bullying.” A high-stakes DC Circuit Court hearing last week did not go well for TikTok; The odds of it halting a ban plunged from 70% to 30%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence . And if it fails to win this court battle, the likelihood of undoing that loss is 10%.While government spokespeople have shown restraint, Chinese state-backed news outlets offered a window into official thought. Shortly after the Senate passed the ban legislation, the China Daily ran an editorial warning: “The century of humiliation won’t be repeated over TikTok.” It indicated that Beijing views the US attacks on the popular app as in line with an historical pattern of Western exploitation, dating back to when British armies forced Chinese people to buy opium. It warned that attempts to impose coercion and subordination will fail. Separate editorials in other outlets similarly accuse the US of trying to “plunder” ByteDance.Even policymakers on the US-China Commission that Beijing, would never allow a forced sale of its crown jewel algorithm to a foreign buyer. China tweaked its export laws in 2020 to safeguard a move widely interpreted as a response to the first talks of a ban emerging. TikTok’s recommendation engine, which drives individualized content to users’ feeds to keep them scrolling and engaged, has long been cited as the secret sauce of the app’s success over rivals. Some commentators argue that it won’t make sense — especially given the current macroeconomic woes — for Beijing to retaliate with sanctions or further policy signals that would discourage foreign investment amid a decades-low plunge. They claim blocking a sale would hurt ByteDance’s global investors. Yet this fails to acknowledge that Beijing has knee-capped in favor of broader policy goals with a brutal crackdown that has only recently eased. If the past few years have revealed anything about government priorities, it’s that investor returns and fast growth in the tech sector are no longer on top. President Xi Jinping’s mantra of “common prosperity” and high quality innovation that strengthens its tech independence has taken its place. The US knows the game it’s playing with TikTok is unevenly weighted due to its own place in the global tech hierarchy, but this can also be a double-edged sword. As much as China risks turning away foreign investment by blocking a sale, it would be a win to broadcast to the world that any venture to make it in the lucrative US market isn’t safe.Chinese officials may also be quietly considering options as they await the outcome of the presidential election. While Donald Trump kicked off this whole saga during his time in office, as a candidate he has since signaled that he would be against an outright TikTok ban because it would boost competitor Facebook-parent Meta Platforms Inc.Lawmakers have been quick to fill the space left by Beijing’s silence. They are furiously defending the constitutional right of free speech, while trying to silence a platform that more than 170 million Americans use to express themselves. TikTok is painted as a national security threat, but not only has commander-in-chief Joe Biden’s team , it has become a major campaign tool for both presidential frontrunners. The coconut tree memes and “brat” vibes propelling Kamala Harris’ popularity in the polls originated on the app. It’s ironic that the US is employing an undemocratic process to ban the app in the name of preserving its democracy. Around half of Americans use TikTok. Less than a third . Seven million US businesses are on TikTok. The supposed smoking-gun evidence that it is a real threat , kept from the eyes of not just the American public but . The ban legislation was through Congress, attached to a foreign aid package meant to support Israel and Ukraine. Lawmakers worried about social media security risks should instead pass comprehensive laws to protect Americans’ data and safeguard users from threats across all apps.Banning TikTok under these circumstances only gives China’s well-oiled propaganda machine the ultimate ammunition. Maybe Beijing is wise not to say much. America’s actions speak for itself. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . 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