澳大利亚财长此行，自七年以来首次访问中国，旨在平复对最大贸易伙伴中国潜在经济放缓可能引发的忧虑。此举正值堪培拉关注其与世界第二大经济体、同时也是最大出口市场的中国之间关系可能遭受的影响。
出发前，财长已了解主要面向中国的澳企高管的立场，这些企业包括铁矿石业巨头和钢铁制造商等。他强调：“此次访问是巩固澳中经济稳定的关键一步。”“我们与中国的关系充满了复杂性与机遇。”
此行背景下的中国经济前景黯淡：房地产市场连续三年疲软，以及疫情后复苏迟滞，都对世界第二大经济体的增长构成压力。这对中国经济的直接影响，因中国对澳洲钢铁的巨大需求而颇为严重。
尽管中国的央行最近有所动作以提振楼市，并实施了降息等刺激措施，但是否能实质性提振中国经济，还存在不确定性。“财长将探求现场情况以及政策制定者除了减息之外，还有什么额外举措在重燃市场需求与住房市场活力。”彭博经济学团队的一名分析师如是说。
此前，澳大利亚已经解除了大部分对中国的贸易限制。这次访问中，澳方预计将得到中国高层的保证：澳大利亚不会采取类似美国和欧盟等西方国家对中国实施的经济制裁行动。
根据澳洲财库部门的数据分析，每降低10美元铁矿石价格，第一年会导致政府预算收入损失5亿澳元（约34.4亿人民币），第四年则为19亿澳元。对此现象可能过高的担忧被专家指出：澳大利亚对中国放缓的经济风险影响已基本评估。
AMP公司副首席经济学家穆斯纳表示：“假如中国的经济增长提速一个或两个百分点，那对澳洲而言将是重大的转变。”“不过，中国经济仍有进一步增长的空间。”
关于财长此访的成果，外界尚不确定。尽管大部分贸易限制已被移除，但澳方对于中国要求开放更敏感关键矿产领域的商界准入持谨慎态度。
中国官员至少可能寻求确保，澳大利亚不会加入美国及欧盟等西方伙伴对中国施加更多经济制裁行列。“两国在维护各自国家利益的同时，也会为对方发展提供支撑。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Australia’s Treasurer Chalmers Heads to China as Fears Grow Over Slowdown
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
Australian Treasurer will kick off a visit to China on Thursday, the first by the nation’s top economic decision-maker in seven years, as concerns in Canberra grow over the potential impact from a far-reaching slowdown in its top trading partner.Chalmers will meet with his counterparts during the two-day trip, including with the chair of the National Development and Reform Commission The treasurer will co-chair the Australia China Strategic Economic Dialogue in the latest sign of improved ties after several years of diplomatic tensions.As a small open economy, Australia walks a tightrope balancing tensions between its biggest trading partner — China — and its security partner and largest source of foreign direct investment, the US. Trade flows with China have surged, with shipments accounting for more than 35% of Australian export receipts.The relationship underwent a period of tumult beginning in late 2017, with Beijing taking punitive trade actions against some Australian exports, though the massive iron-ore trade was left untouched. The election of Australia’s current Labor government in May 2022 heralded a steady turnaround in ties and most of the trade barriers have now been removed.The visit is a “really important step toward stabilizing our economic relationship with China,” Chalmers said in Brisbane ahead of his departure. “Our relationship with China is full of complexity and it’s full of opportunity.”It comes as a three-year slump in China’s housing market and a weak recovery from the pandemic have weighed on growth in the world’s second-largest economy. That has significant fallout potential for Australia, given it is heavily exposed to the Chinese property market’s demand for steel.While China’s central bank acted in recent days to try and support the property market, it’s unclear whether the cuts in mortgage rates and other stimulus announced will boost the economy. “Chalmers is going to want to get a reading on conditions on the ground in China and understand what policymakers are doing beyond rate cuts to reignite demand and stimulate the housing market,” said , who covers the Australian economy for Bloomberg Economics.Ahead of his departure, Chalmers said he consulted with executives from major China-facing Australian companies, including , , and .Subscribe to the on , or wherever you listen. Iron ore has been among the worst performing commodities in 2024 as China’s slowdown hurt demand and sent the price tumbling below $90 for the first time since 2022. The steelmaking ingredient has risen in response to the stimulus announcement and is back near $100 a ton, though it’s still down by almost a fifth since late May. Such large fluctuations can have a significant impact on Australia’s budget.According to Treasury estimates, every $10 fall in the iron ore price costs A$500 million ($344 million) a year in budget revenue for the first three years and then A$1.9 billion in the fourth year.It is possible to overplay the influence on Australia’s economy from China, according to AMP Deputy Chief Economist who added that most of the risk from the slowdown was already priced in. “Now, if the economy in China was to start growing by one or two percent, well that would be a big shift for Australia,” Mousina said. “But there is still upside to go for the Chinese economy.”Experts said it was unclear what outcomes could be expected from Chalmers’ meetings in Beijing, with the majority of trade restrictions already lifted and Canberra reluctant to move on Beijing’s demands for more business access to the sensitive critical minerals sector.At a minimum, Chinese officials may seek assurances from Chalmers that Australia won’t join Western partners such as the US and European Union in imposing a growing number of economic sanctions on the Asia power.
