在持续加快提振经济增长的步伐上，中国政府作出承诺并提供支持性财政措施以稳定备受打击的房地产市场。这一举措不仅旨在遏制全球第二大经济体增速放缓的局面，更是给刺激计划注入了新的动力。
官方新华社于周四报道，由24人组成的中共中央政治局会议明确表示，将竭尽全力确保年度经济目标的实现。他们强调，要使房地产市场“止跌”，这是迄今为止对关键行业发出的最强力信号，以应对8月份新房价格下滑的现象，该现象自2014年以来首次出现。政策制定者同时宣布严格控制新建住宅项目开工规模，旨在缓解住宅供过于求的问题——尽管如此，新开工项目数量已接近停滞。
在具体财政支出方面虽无明确指示，但《路透社》于晚些时候报道指出，财政部计划今年发行2万亿元人民币（约2840亿美元）的特殊主权债券。这2万亿元将分为两部分使用：一半用于刺激消费，另一半则协助地方政府解决债务问题。据熟悉内情的人士透露，此举标志着中国政府进行了大规模财政刺激。
在这一背景下，经济学者分析指出，此轮包括计划中的国债发行在内的政策包将能够带动经济增长0.2个百分点，进而帮助政府达成约5%的增长目标。这一增长幅度对于稳定中国这个庞大经济体具有重要意义。
值得注意的是，此次政治局会议的总结文字简短至1200余字，较往常长达2000多字有明显缩减，并且摒弃了“审慎”一词来形容货币政策。这种变化突显了政策制定者直接面对市场需求，以及在中央银行于此前一次强力政策行动后迅速调整战略的紧迫感。
声明特别强调的是住房领域政策工具的运用——要求严格执行利率下调等措施。与过去政府一般较为笼统、含糊的表述形成鲜明对比，这一调整表明，决策层现在更加直接地向市场传递信号，并对此感到紧迫。
值得注目的是，会议首次明确提及“目标市场的复苏”以应对自衰退开始以来出现的情况，在10月的这次会议中聚焦经济议题是自2018年以来前所未见的情形。以往此类会议主要针对4月、7月和12月的重要事项进行讨论。此次调整反映出决策者希望缓解人们对于经济增长担忧的增长焦虑。
为应对当前经济挑战，领导层呼吁保持冷静并强调信心的增强。他们还明确要求政府“直面困难”，确保执行好经济工作的职责感与紧迫性。政府已向相关部门提供了具体指导，要求其积极面对挑战、强化信心，并将责任和紧迫感融入工作中。
在整体调整方式上有所体现的是，针对住房领域的新指令标志着政治局首次明确提出复苏目标，这在过去五季度经济增长放缓至最低水平后成为新焦点。这一转变体现了政策制定者采取直接干预措施的意图。
经济学界普遍认为，此次公告意味着从过去的零散策略转向更全面提振经济的努力。不过，具体财政刺激规模尚不明确，仍需观察后续行动。
值得注意的是，在面临经济困境的情况下，政府已承诺加强就业困难人群和低收入群体的帮助，并计划为面临困难的居民提供更多援助。此前一天，中国政府宣布将向遇到生活困境的人们发放补助金，并确保失业人员获得更多福利措施。
政治局还敦促官员“出台并善用”超长期特殊主权债券以及地方专项票据，以促进投资。地方政府已在8月加快了债券发行的步伐，这反映了在寻找优质投资项目和减少债务风险之间挣扎的努力。
有观点认为，这一声明可能引领进一步扩展地方政府的投资领域，使其更有效地使用这些工具。一种有效途径是允许地方政府利用特定债券销售的基金购买未售出房产。近期的一系列刺激措施已帮助减轻了对中国可能无法达到年度增长目标的担忧。
例如，高盛集团等华尔街银行机构经济学家在收到惨淡经济数据后的8月曾下调全年GDP预测值，而汇丰控股有限公司（HSBC Holdings Plc.）经济学家如景刘则表示：“政策推出的速度和规模超出了我们的预期。形势已经反转；准备好迎接更多积极的举措。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Xi Holds Surprise Politburo Meeting to Discuss China Economy With Top Leaders
新闻日期：2024-09-26
原文摘要：
China’s top leaders ramped up efforts to revive growth with pledges to support fiscal spending and stabilize the beleaguered property sector, giving new momentum to stimulus measures aimed at arresting a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.President ’s huddle of the 24-man Politburo concluded with a promise to strive to achieve the country’s annual economic goals, the official Xinhua News Agency Thursday. Officials pledged action to make the real estate market “stop declining,” their strongest vow yet to stabilize the crucial sector after new-home prices fell in August at the since 2014.The government will also strictly limit the construction of new-home projects, the Politburo said, as part of efforts to ease residential oversupply — although such building has ground to a near-halt. While the Politburo offered no specifics on fiscal spending, Reuters reported late Thursday that the Ministry of Finance is planning to issue 2 trillion yuan ($284 billion) of special sovereign bonds this year. That funding will be evenly split between stimulating consumption and helping local governments tackle debt problems, Reuters said, citing two people familiar with the matter. “Two trillion yuan well beats expectations,” said , chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. “This is a big bang fiscal stimulus that underpins both boosting consumption and defusing risks.”The package revealed this week, including reported plans for the sovereign bond sales, would lift the economy by 0.2 percentage points, helping the government hit its annual growth goal of around 5%, he added.The Politburo readout came hours earlier than normal, just as afternoon trading began. After its release, China’s — a gauge of onshore stocks — extended gains to 4.2%, erasing losses for the year, while a gauge of developers tracked by Bloomberg jumped 15.9%. Read more: The yield on China’s 10-year bonds rose 7 basis points, extending an earlier increase on the Politburo’s stimulus plan. That marked the biggest jump since November 2022.The statement was also notable for its detailed language around policy tools such as calls for the “forceful” implementation of rate cuts, a contrast with typically vague, sweeping statements. That departure underscores officials’ need to talk directly to markets, days after the central bank unleashed a powerful policy blitz that sent a benchmark stock index soaring by the most since 2020.“Today’s readout only has 1,200 words, compared with 2,000-plus words in previous meetings,” said , head of China economics at Macquarie Group. “It also cut out the usual jargon such as ‘prudent’ before monetary policy. All of this suggests a sense of urgency on the part of policymakers.”Underscoring the shift in operating mode, instructions on the housing sector in the statement also marked “the first time since the downturn began that the Politburo has explicitly targeted a market rebound,” , head of China economics at Capital Economics, said in a note. The focus on the economy at this month’s meeting — for the first time since 2018 — was also unusual, as that agenda is usually for the Politburo’s April, July and December huddles. That deviation speaks to officials’ desire to allay rising economic anxiety after China’s growth to the worst pace in five quarters.Leaders urged for “calm” in handling the current economic challenges, while seeming to acknowledge it was time for a shift in gear. Officials were given clear instructions to “face up to difficulties, strengthen confidence, and earnestly enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency of doing economic work well.”Economists generally saw the announcement as a pivot from authorities’ previous piecemeal approach to boosting the economy, even as the extent of any fiscal stimulus remains unclear.In a sign the government is increasingly concerned about the economic malaise, the Politburo vowed to strengthen aid for people with difficulties in finding jobs and lower-income groups. The previous day the country said it will give to residents facing hardship and vowed more benefits for some unemployed people.The Politburo also urged officials to “issue and make good use” of the ultra-long special sovereign bonds and local special notes to drive investment. Local governments have accelerated bond issuance since August after keeping the pace slow, as they struggled to find quality projects to invest in while trying to reduce debt risks.The readout could lead to a further expansion of the sectors that local officials can invest in to facilitate the use of the tool, said , chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc. One effective way would be to allow local governments to buy unsold homes using funds raised from special bond sales, he said.The recent spate of stimulus has helped reduce concerns China will miss its annual growth target. Previously, economists at Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut their full-year GDP forecasts in the wake of miserable economic data in August.“The frequency and magnitude of policy rollouts have exceeded our expectation,” HSBC Holdings Plc. economists including Jing Liu wrote in a note. “The tide has turned; be prepared for more proactive initiatives.”
