日本即将选出新的领导人，并有望成为下任首相，其中挑战中最重大的一项是处理与美国的同盟关系并解决与中国之间日益紧张的关系问题。目前占据主导地位的是自由民主党（LDP）将于周五进行的党魁选举，获胜者将接替现任首相职位。竞选期间，外交政策议题多被搁置一旁。然而，在一名日本学生在中国遇害后，这一事件促使所有候选人都呼吁彻底调查，并要求采取措施保障日本公民的安全。
此前，中日两国之间的关系已经因中国军机首次侵犯日本领空而高度紧张。随后，为了回应，日本派出了战舰穿越台湾海峡，这可能引起中国的强烈反应。考虑到LDP在议会的掌控优势，即将产生的新领导人在10月1日就任后将成为下任首相几乎是板上钉钉的事。候选人都强调，将坚持与美国合作以应对中国不断增强的挑衅和来自朝鲜及俄罗斯的安全威胁。
对于日本来说，“盟友”的信任度已因一些被视为自我封闭的举措而受到影响。其中包括美国民主党总统以及共和党高层对特朗普提出的、旨在让其他国家支付更多费用以承担美军驻扎成本提议的看法。然而，候选人们均未主张大幅改变日本与美国的关系，而是倾向于深化与其他主要民主国家（如韩国和澳大利亚）的合作。
但平稳航行的道路并未完全敞开：目前尚不清楚如果民主党候选人乔·拜登在11月的选举中获胜后将如何对待日本。特朗普在竞选期间曾针对日本贸易不平衡问题进行了批评，并在其任内提出要求东京支付更多费用以承担美军驻扎成本。
同时，日本自身可能也有着额外诉求。其中一名领先的候选人在接受采访时称希望对允许美国军队在日本驻扎的协议进行重新审视，使其更公正，但他并未提供具体细节。一些候选人还希望日本能够加入五眼联盟（Five Eyes），即由美、加、澳、新和英组成的情报共享国家集团。
尽管前任首相安倍晋三在离任前已成功拉近了与韩国的关系，并加强了与美国的三国合作如导弹防御系统，新的领导人在未能充分投入韩日关系维护方面可能会面临风险。如果新的首相对于访问东京附近的靖国神社有所计划，这可能引发对美国的紧张情绪。该神社被视为象征着日本过去的军事主义行为，一直引起韩国及其他国家的关注。
在另一个潜在挑战点上，作为最有可能赢得选举的保守派候选人之一，她经常前往靖国神社。一旦成为首相，她的访问可能会导致与美国的关系出现微妙紧张状态。2013年，安倍晋三在任期间对这一神社进行访问后，时任美国大使曾公开表达了“失望”，随后他便在卸任总理后才停止了前往该神社的行程。
相反，在与中国这样一个美国视为主要战略威胁的国家打交道时，一些分析人士认为，一位更加显露出民族主义倾向的日方领导人的任命或许更符合与美国合作。尽管中日间深厚的商业联系有时会令东京在某些政策上感到犹豫，比如关于半导体相关设备出口限制等。
对于特朗普可能与支持者之间的政策协调，在对付中国时持更为强硬态度，有分析认为这可能是可行的。即将成为LDP竞选中的领跑者的前环境部长小泉进次郎，在纽约哥伦比亚大学深造并曾在美国华盛顿智库任职研究员。43岁的小泉在担任环境大臣的经历后，与其他候选人相比经验有限可能成为选举中的劣势。
竞选期间，他并未否认自己的不成熟经历，反而声称青年人的特质或许能够成为他的优势，包括与年仅40岁的朝鲜最高领导人金正恩对话时所具有的共同背景。小泉的父亲、已故前首相小泉纯一郎曾在2002年与中国当时的领导人金日成进行了峰会，并因此释放了部分被日本绑架的人质。
至于韩国和朝鲜之间的分歧，如果新的首相比较前任更少关注与韩国的联系，则有可能对三边合作如导弹防御系统等造成压力。任何对于靖国神社（纪念日本战死者）访问的行为都可能导致与美国的关系紧张。在2013年十二月小泉晋三任首相时对该神社进行了访问后，美大使公开表达了“失望”，这导致了双方关系的微妙波动，并在小泉卸任总理前才停止了前往该神社的习惯。
相反，一些政治分析师认为，在协调与中国这个具有同样战略挑战性的国家时，一位更加明显的民族主义者可能是更好的选择。尽管日本与中国的紧密商业联系有时会让东京犹豫是否完全追随美国的步伐，例如对出口半导体相关设备的限制等问题上有所犹豫。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Japan’s Next PM Faces Challenge of New US President and Tension With China
新闻日期：2024-09-26
原文摘要：
Among the challenges awaiting Japan’s next prime minister, few will be as weighty as managing relations with its sole treaty ally the US and navigating fraying ties with China, the biggest trading partner for Tokyo.The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new leader Friday who is set to become the next premier. During initial stages of the election campaign, foreign policy issues mostly took a back seat. That changed last week after the fatal stabbing of a Japanese schoolboy in China, an incident that prompted all the candidates to make calls for a full investigation and demand steps to protect Japanese citizens.Tensions had already been high in between Japanese and Chinese diplomats after a Chinese military aircraft made an into Japanese airspace for the first time last month. Japan countered by sailing one of its warships through the Taiwan Strait for the first time earlier this week, Kyodo News Thursday, in a move likely to anger China.The LDP’s dominance in parliament makes it all but certain the winner of its leadership race will be elected the nation’s next prime minister on Oct. 1. The nine candidates have all indicated they would continue to align with the US to counter China’s growing assertiveness, as well as threats from North Korea and Russia. “I wouldn’t expect any great changes because the main objective of any Japanese government remains consolidation of the alliance with the US, and expansion of — and strengthening — ties to other security partners in the face of doubts about the credibility of the US and an increasingly hostile external environment,” said , a senior adviser at Pacific Forum, a think-tank based in Hawaii.Confidence in the US has been shaken by recent moves seen as inward looking. These include by US President , a Democrat, and from leading Republicans to a proposed deal by to buy United States Steel Corp.However, none of the candidates has advocated major change in Japan’s relationship with the US, and most want to continue deepening ties to other leading democracies including South Korea and Australia.That doesn’t mean it will be smooth sailing. It still remains unknown how Democratic nominee Vice President would approach Japan if she wins the November presidential election. During his campaign for the election, Trump has criticism of trade imbalances with Japan. When he previously held the office, Trump that Tokyo pay more to host US troops.Japan may have its own requests. , a frontrunner in the LDP election, has said he would like a review of the agreement that allows US troops to be based in Japan to make it fairer. He hasn’t provided specifics. Some of the candidates want Japan to be allowed to join the intelligence-sharing group of nations known as the Five Eyes, comprising the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK.One of the foreign policy achievements of outgoing Prime Minister has been to foster a closer relationship with South Korea and increase trilateral cooperation with the US in areas such as missile defense. That progress could be at risk if a new prime minister doesn’t invest as much in fostering ties with Seoul.Friction may surface if the new premier visits the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, a memorial for the nation’s war dead that is regarded by South Korea and some other nations as a symbol of past militarism. , a staunch conservative who is among the election favorites, is a regular visitor to the shrine. She has said she would continue to go as prime minister.Any visit to Yasukuni — where 14 Class-A war criminals are honored alongside other war dead — might trigger tension with the US. A visit by former Prime Minister to Yasukuni in December 2013 prompted a rare public expression of discord when then US Ambassador expressed “disappointment” over the visit. Abe then refrained from going to the shrine until he stood down as prime minister in 2020.Alternatively, some political analysts say a more overtly nationalist Japanese prime minister may be a better fit in coordination with the US over China, the country that both have said is their primary strategic threat. Japan’s deep business ties to China sometimes make Tokyo over fully aligning with the US, such as over restrictions on exports of semiconductor-related equipment.“There is a possibility that Trump would see policy agreement with Takaichi in terms of being tough on China,” said , a research fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, a Tokyo-based think tank. The frontrunner in the LDP campaign is , who studied at Columbia University in New York and worked as a researcher at a Washington think tank. Koizumi, 43, once served as environment minister but his lack of experience compared with most of the other candidates could be a handicap in the election. “One of the concerns about Koizumi is his very limited track record in diplomacy,” said , a professor at Tokyo University.During the campaign, Koizumi hasn’t disputed his inexperience, but said his youth could be an asset, including in dealing with North Korean leader , a contemporary at 40. Koizumi’s father is , a former prime minister who held a 2002 summit in Pyongyang with then-leader Kim Jong Il, after which North Korea released some of the Japanese citizens it abducted during the 1970s and 1980s. Since then, Japan has demanded the release of all the other surviving abductees.North Korea has said the issue is settled, with , the sister of the current leader, saying in March a summit can’t be held because Tokyo has “” to take the first step toward better relations.
