曼集团的高级董事、管理型股票部负责人温克尔克斯（Wilcox）认为，在中国股市继续上涨方面将会看到持续的支持政策，这与怀疑者们的观点相反，他们警告称这种涨幅可能会是短暂的。温克尔克斯表示：“中国政府本周宣布的大规模刺激计划对中国的股市来说是非常重要的转折点，这是逆转通缩周期的开始。”他进一步解释说：“我们预期在未来会有更多需求侧宽松措施跟进，确保当前的市场复苏得以持续。”
尽管金融市场正经历投资者信心的损失问题，但温克尔克斯的观点显得尤为乐观。即便是面对中国政府罕见的刺激举措，摩根大通和高盛等机构仍在质疑这种持久上涨的可能性，因为结构性问题如房地产危机依然存在。对于温克尔克斯来说，他的积极态度建立在美联储放宽政策带来的宽松空间上，这为中国人民银行降低利率提供了更多可能性。此外，他还关注了改善盈利情况的方面。
温克尔克斯认为，美联储的减息决策与美联储开始一系列减息周期的明确表示，无疑增强了亚洲各国中央银行跟随调整的可能性，特别是中国的央行，因为美国政策已经为这一举措提供了基础。“显然，这增加了东亚国家央行效仿并实施减息措施的理由。”他说。在中国人民银行宣布了刺激方案后，包括向银行提供更多资金、加大购房激励以及考虑设立股市稳定基金等措施，市场反应迅速，中国股市在过去两天内上涨约6%，但今年整体表现略显平淡。
为了提振中国国内消费并着手逆转通缩周期，温克尔克斯表示中国政府可能会推出更多的政策支持，尤其是通过社会福利改革。他特别关注的是数百万农民工的消费能力，他们的收入增加或通过金融援助将能刺激经济。“我们预期不会看到一次大规模刺激计划的效果立竿见影，但从上周中国政府措施的市场反应来看，这无疑是积极信号。”温克尔克斯说，“但我们期待未来会有渐进式、累积性的影响出现，总体上对国内消费和经济有着显著推动作用。”
基于中国稳定增长前景及各国央行降息预期等因素，温克尔克斯对中国和其他亚洲国家股票持有更广泛的积极看法。他还提到印度在人口结构方面的持续优势以及印尼、马来西亚等东南亚国家的经济改善作为正面因素。
对于亚洲除日本以外（即“东亚”）股市的特别喜好，温克尔克斯指出这是一个长久以来未受关注的资产类别。他认为所有主要成分——中国、印度和东南亚国家——同时具备实现积极经济增长的能力，这表明该地区可能出现独特机遇。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Man Group Defies China Skeptics, Expects Stock Rally to Sustain on Stimulus
新闻日期：2024-09-26
原文摘要：
of hedge fund firm Man Group Plc expects Chinese stocks to extend their rally on continued policy support, defying skeptics who warn the gains will be fleeting.Beijing’s wide-ranging stimulus announced this week is “really important for China stocks” as “the start of a broader attempt to reverse the deflationary cycle,” said Wilcox, managing director of discretionary equities. “We would expect to see more demand-side easing measures to come through in the future to ensure that the current market recovery can be sustained.”His optimism stands out in a market wracked with a loss of investor confidence. Even with the Chinese central bank’s rare stimulus blitz, analysts at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among those questioning the likelihood of a sustained rally as structural problems including an entrenched property crisis remain unsolved. Wilcox is pinning his bullish take on the Federal Reserve’s easing, which has opened up more room for the People’s Bank of China to cut interest rates, as well as improving earnings.Read More: “The fact that the cut has happened, and the Fed has been very open that this is the beginning of a cutting cycle and not just a one-off, clearly adds credence to the argument that there’s greater flexibility now for Asian central banks to follow suit and China as well,” he said. The PBOC on Wednesday the interest rate charged on its one-year policy loans by the most on record. That followed its announcement Tuesday of a stimulus package including more cash for banks, bigger home-buying incentives and plans to consider a stock stabilization fund. The efforts provided an immediate jolt for stocks, with the onshore benchmark shooting up about 6% in the past two days. It remains little changed on the year, however, trailing the double-digit gains in many global markets. Read More: Wilcox says more policy support is on the way, especially by means of social welfare reform. He points in particular at the millions of migrant workers whose spending power can be boosted by financial aid. “We don’t expect to see one single shot of stimulus here although the news from China earlier in the week has been well received by markets,” he said. “We do expect to see incremental progression that in aggregate will make quite a meaningful difference to domestic consumption and start to arrest this deflationary cycle.”Expectations for China’s economic stabilization and rate cuts by various central banks have contributed to Wilcox’s favorable view of Asia ex-Japan stocks more broadly. He also cites India continuing to excel on demographic trends as well as improvement in Southeast Asian nations including Indonesia and Malaysia as positive factors. “Asia ex-Japan equities is an asset class that has been unloved for quite some time now, but I do feel that everything is aligning to begin to change that perception,” said the market veteran, who previously covered global stocks at JPMorgan Asset Management. “We are currently seeing a relatively unique situation in the region whereby all of the main constituent parts — China, India and SEA — have the potential to deliver positive economic growth simultaneously.”
