中国经济理论“债务陷阱”的推动者即将迎来债券市场上的一个重要象征性里程碑。中国30年期国债收益率预计将在二十年来首次低于日本同期限国债收益率。
在中国经济前景暗淡之际，长期债券收益不断创下新低；而日本的国债收益率则因预测第四大经济体终于摆脱通货紧缩困扰而攀升至13年来最高点。中国经济实力减弱引发了对类似日本90年代“债务陷阱”的担忧：房地产市场低迷、价格下跌及信贷需求疲软。经济衰退期间，消费者与企业倾向于偿还债务成为日本经历数十年通货紧缩的标志。
为避免重蹈邻国覆辙，中国政府近期启动了前所未有的刺激措施——包括下调一系列政策利率以及考虑成立股市稳定基金等行动，并强调足够的财政支出和对房地产业的支持。国家主席习近平及高层领导人呼吁加大财政投入与保障房地产行业的发展。
Pantheon Macroeconomics的中国首席经济学家表示：“这种势头反映出日本有希望摆脱持续30余年的经济停滞状态，而与此同时，投资者对中国中长期前景越来越悲观。”“在这一时期，中国面临着类似于日本进入衰退时的特点：房产市场下滑、资产负债结构调整问题、资产价格修正以及人口老龄化拖累等因素。”
数据表明，本周中国30年期国债收益率已降至2.14%，创至少自2005年以来的最低点；而同期的日本国债收益率则攀至约2.07%。尽管中国经济困境推动了债券作为避风港的需求增长，但日本政府债券却因通货膨胀回归与取消负利率政策影响而遭受抛售。
尽管中国当前的情况与日本在通货紧缩时期具有相似性，但也存在诸多不同之处。例如，中国人民银行并未像日本那样采取量化宽松、大量购债等非常规刺激措施应对危机。相反，它专注于通过引导长期国债收益率走高而非降低来更好地管理自身收益曲线。
东京资产管理公司的一名债券投资经理指出：“尽管中国似乎正遵循着日本过去的路径，但它们的做法存在差异，这是由于两国政治体制的不同。”“中国正面临人口结构恶化等经济挑战，这如同多层千层糕一般堆积起来。”
而对于ING银行来说，即使中国政府推出最新的刺激计划，也难以阻挡市场对债券的需求和收益率下行趋势。这意味着若当前趋势持续下去，中国的长期国债收益率可能最终会低于日本的水平。“随着利率降低，存款与债券之间收益差距将扩大，我预计短期内中国30年期国债收益率将持续下跌。”该银行大中华区首席经济学家表示，“资金将继续回流至债券市场。”
以上是根据原文进行的优化翻译，力求贴合中国读者阅读习惯。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China's 30-Year Yield Premium Over Japan Is Vanishing Despite Stimulus Plan
新闻日期：2024-09-26
原文摘要：
Promoters of the theory that China faces a “” of its economy look set to enjoy a symbolic milestone in the bond market.The yield on China’s 30-year government bonds is on track to fall below its Japanese equivalent for the first time in about two decades. China’s long-term yields continue to plumb fresh lows amid a sluggish outlook for the world’s second-largest economy, while Japan’s have climbed to their highest in 13 years on bets the fourth-biggest has finally banished the scourge of deflation.China’s economic struggles have fanned fears of a like Japan experienced in the 1990s given an extended property slump, falling prices and weak demand for credit. Consumers and businesses opting to pay down debt following a real estate collapse were a hallmark of Japan’s fall into decades of deflation. Chinese efforts to avoid what happened to its regional neighbor ramped up this week as Beijing unleashed the most daring in decades with measures such as cuts to a slate of policy rates and the mulling of a stock stabilizing fund. President Xi Jinping and top leaders also for sufficient fiscal spending and support for the property sector.The yield convergence “is a result of growing optimism that Japan will be able to escape its three decades plus of economic stagnation, combined with mounting pessimism over China’s medium to long-term outlook,” said , chief China economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics. “China shares some of the features of Japan when it entered stagnation, such as the property sector downturn, balance sheet adjustment issues, asset price corrections and a demographic drag.”China’s 30-year yield fell to 2.14% this week, the lowest since at least 2005 while Japan’s climbed to about 2.07%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While China’s woes have boosted investor appetite for bonds as a haven, Japanese debt has sold off on the return of inflation and the end of the country’s negative interest-rate policy. Despite the economic similarities between China now and Japan during its period of deflation, there remain plenty of differences. For one, the People’s Bank of China has refrained from the types of unconventional stimulus like quantitative easing and massive bond buying that defined Japan’s response to its crisis. And the PBOC’s to better manage its yield curve include guiding longer-dated yields higher, not lower like Japan did.And in the bond market, shorter-dated yields in China are much higher than their Japanese counterparts.“China appears to be walking the path that Japan did but how it’s walking is different because of the difference in the political systems,” said , a fixed-income manager at Asset Management One Co. in Tokyo. “China is facing economic challenges, such as deteriorating demographics, that are building up like a mille-feuille.”Still, for ING Bank NV, China’s latest stimulus package won’t be enough to deter demand for bonds and the downward trend in yields. That means Chinese yields may fall below those in Japan if the current trend continues.“Lower interest rates will once again widen the gap between bank deposits and bonds, so I still think the long end CGB yields will trend downward in the near term,” said , greater China chief economist at the bank. “We will see money flow back into bonds.”
