中国股市近期势如破竹，过去四天涨幅高达19%，据美国高盛集团高管透露，在即将结束的美国大选之后，这些股票将成为投资者计划中的关键组成部分。
周四，随着中国政府宣布将通过增加财政支出提振消费、管控地方政府债务，并采取措施稳定饱受争议的房地产市场，美国上市的中国股票继续飙升。这些举措是本周公布的计划的一部分，该计划包括发放补助和补贴，以及旨在遏制经济增速放缓的一系列刺激措施，后者严重打击了消费者信心。
金龙指数大幅上涨18%，这是自2022年3月以来的最大日内涨幅，由在美国交易但主要在中国开展业务的公司组成。中国境内股票的指标——沪深300指数在过去四个交易日累计上涨11%，正接近近十年来最大的涨幅记录。
不过，尽管股市一片繁荣，Rubner却认为中国股票的长期复苏可能终于到来，并且如果这真的实现，投资者应抓住这个机会。“这次对中国来说确实不同。”Rubner在周四写给客户的报告中表示，“将中国股票配置得过轻，是全球股市中最大的共识交易。”
“新兴市场正快速成为11月和12月美国大选后受青睐的交易对象，”他提到，这指的是对将于年底到期的看涨期权的需求。具体到基金来说，在最近上涨前，它们仅将不到7%的资金分配给中国股票，约为五年来最低水平。自今年年初以来，对冲基金在累计名义金额上净卖出了中国股票。
然而，情况本周发生了逆转，它们转向买入中国股票，创出2021年3月以来最大单日净购买量，并在最近10年排名第二位，周二，根据高盛经纪业务部门的数据。另一方面，共同基金的买入空间也更大。截至8月末，在全球市场中配置至中国股票的比例为5.1%，这是历史低位。
然而，更大的推动可能来自被动投资者。2024年流入美国上市交易所交易基金的资金总额为6950亿美元，其中仅49亿美元流向了中国的ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）。Rubner写道：“尽管中国和新兴市场资产不像美国市场那样每日都能从被动资金中获益，但这正在发生变化。”
追踪中国大陆A股的易方达 Harvest CSI 300 ETF在周三录得17.3亿美元的资金流入，这是自2022年6月以来的最大单日净额，根据彭博汇编的数据。Rubner预计未来还会有更多的资金流入。
从具体交易策略来看，他建议买入iShares China Large-Cap ETF的11月$34/$38看涨期权价差或iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF的11月$48/$53看涨期权价差。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：‘Buy China’ Is Favored Post-US Election Trade, Goldman's Scott Rubner Says
新闻日期：2024-09-26
原文摘要：
Chinese stocks have been on a tear, with the soaring 19% in the last four days, and the shares should be a key part of investors’ plans once the US election is over, according to , managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.US-listed China stocks extended their rally on Thursday after the nation’s Politburo for fiscal spending to stimulate consumption and rein in local government debt, as well as measures to stabilize the country’s troubled real estate market. The moves are part of a unveiled this week that includes handouts and subsidies as well as a aimed at arresting a growth slowdown that has battered consumer confidence.The Golden Dragon index, which is made up of companies with shares traded in the US but that conduct the majority of their business in China, jumped as much as Thursday, the most intraday since March 2022. The CSI 300 Index, a gauge of Chinese onshore stocks, is up 11% in the last four sessions and headed for its in almost a decade. But despite the rally, Rubner thinks the long-awaited recovery in Chinese equities may finally have arrived and, if so, investors should want to get in on it.“I really think this time is different for China,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients Thursday, noting that being underweight Chinese equities is the “largest consensus trade” in the global stock market. “Re-emerging markets have quickly become a favored post-US election trade for November and December,” he wrote, referring to demand for bullish call options expiring at the end of the year. Take hedge funds. Before the recent gains, they’d allocated less than 7% of their capital to Chinese equities, roughly a five-year low. Indeed, since the start of 2023, Chinese stocks remain meaningfully net sold by hedge funds in cumulative notional terms. But they reversed course earlier this week and into Chinese equities, posting the largest daily net buying since March 2021 and the second largest in the past 10 years on Tuesday, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage desk. Mutual funds also have more room for buying. As of the end of August, they had a 5.1% allocation to Chinese equities globally, which is historically low, Rubner wrote. But the bigger boost could come from passive investors. Of the $695 billion of inflows for US-listed exchange-traded funds in 2024, only $4.9 billion has gone into Chinese ETFs. “Chinese and emerging market assets do not benefit from passive inflows every day like the US market, but this is changing,” Rubner wrote. The Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (), which tracks China domestic A shares, over $173 million worth of inflows on Wednesday, the most since June 2022, according to data complied by Bloomberg. And Rubner expects more to be on the way.In terms of specific trades, he recommends buying the iShares China Large-Cap ETF () November $34/$38 call spread or the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF () November $48/$53 call spread.
