在中国股市经历了自2008年以来最大单周涨幅后，市场在周五迎来了一波异常激烈的交易高潮，这使得上海证券交易所都陷入了超负荷状态，并暴露出投资者情绪的巨大转变，这是因为政府加大了刺激政策所致。与全球金融危机期间中国大幅救市后的股市表现相呼应，大盘股指数CSI 300飙升4.5%，一周内涨幅达16%。
在此次交易狂潮中，出现了故障和订单处理延迟的问题，知情人士表示。上海证券交易所随即进行了调查，但未作详细说明。这一周的市场走势为已历经多年亏损、表现全球最差之一的中国8.9万亿美元股市带来了复苏希望，并可能触底反弹。
周二，中国政府终于采取了久违的大幅货币刺激措施，随后高层誓言将采取必要手段支持房地产市场并提振消费。然而，目前尚不清楚刺激计划的具体细节，过去类似的狂热最终也往往以消散告终。
但市场观察人士表示，投资者对于持续性大涨的风险感到明显焦虑，尤其是中国股市将在接下来的一周金秋长假期间关闭，在此期间担心香港市场的上涨可能会继续，而他们无法参与。
“FOMO（错失恐惧症）在投资者中高涨”，先锋资产管理策略师说，“仅过去三天，中国股市已接近上行10%。”他认为，基于历史估值，中国股票仍有20%的上升空间。在港股市场，追踪中国股票的表现指数上涨3%，创下自2018年以来最长连涨记录；科技为主的指数则创纪录地上涨了10%。
内地股市的交易量也达到了近三年来最高水平，虽然出现了交易问题，但总额超过1.4万亿元人民币（约2000亿美元）。而港股的交易额更是达到创纪录的572亿港元。与此同时，在美国上市的中国公司股价在周五预开市场中继续上扬。
随着投资者将资金转向风险资产而非避险资产，超长政府债券期货录得历史最大单日跌幅，中国10年期国债收益率上升了5个基点至2.16%。
此次上涨严重打击了一些在华企业，知情人士透露。部分公司因采取了所谓的直接市场访问策略而在指数期货上做空，并因此遭受损失；而交易故障导致他们无法出售持仓以满足保证金要求时，这些损失进一步加剧。
这周的政策转向已吸引大额投资者David Tepper表示将加大对中国相关资产的买入。他在CNBC采访中说：“我以为美联储上周的行为会导致中国放宽政策，但我没想到他们会像现在这样大力出手。”
证券监管机构鼓励公司吸引更多长期投资者的措施也增添了市场的乐观情绪。
当天，CS300指数中有266家成员结束交易显示上涨，其中酒业生产商五粮液和电池制造商宁德时代领涨。然而银行股逆市下跌，部分原因是据报道政府计划注入1万亿元人民币资金以支持金融市场。
据市场消息人士透露，这笔资金主要来自发行新特别国债。这一举措可能导致56个基点的ROE稀释，并反映投资者对于在股市大幅下挫时最不受影响的行业之一——中国银行股的关注减少；由于拥有较高的股息收益，这些银行股票长期以来一直吸引寻求稳定回报的投资者。
市场参与者正在寻找更多财政刺激措施以推动下一波增长。“我们可以预期政府将出台一些措施”，投资资产管理公司ZiZhou Investment的基金经理Raymond Chen说，“这无疑让许多悲观者感到失望。”
美银也逐渐转为看涨，其策略师和其他同事预计短期内CSI300指数还有10%的增长空间。几天前，该银行改变观点，将中国在岸股票与离岸同行相比更具吸引力，归因于缺少诸如国有企业支持等利好因素。
这种乐观情绪还推动了与世界第二大经济体相关的风险资产需求增长，地区整体风险偏好增加进一步提升了相关资产的表现。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Stocks Climb as Fiscal Stimulus Bets Lure Investors
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
Chinese equities capped their biggest weekly rally since 2008 with a burst of trading that overwhelmed the Shanghai stock exchange, underscoring a dramatic shift in investor sentiment after ’s government ramped up economic stimulus.In an echo of the rally that followed China’s massive during the global financial crisis, the CSI 300 Index of large-cap shares soared 4.5% on Friday — bringing this week’s gain to 16%. Trading activity was so intense that it led to glitches and delays in processing orders, according to people familiar with the matter. The Shanghai exchange it was investigating the issues, without elaborating. It was a frenzied end to a week that has raised hopes of a bottom in China’s $8.9 trillion stock market after years of losses that made it one of the world’s worst performers. Chinese authorities unleashed a long hoped-for barrage of monetary stimulus on Tuesday, followed by vows from top leaders to do what’s necessary to shore up the housing market and boost consumption.While many details of China’s stimulus plan remain unclear and past bouts of euphoria have often fizzled, market watchers say the fear of missing out on a sustained rally is palpable. With China’s markets closed next week for the Golden Week holidays, domestic investors may be worried that the rally could continue in Hong Kong while they’re away, said , a strategist at Invesco Asset Management.“FOMO is running high for investors as Chinese equities have moved close to 10% in the past three days,” he said. “Based on historical valuation, we think Chinese stocks have another 20% runway to go.”A of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong climbed 3%, notching its longest winning streak since 2018. The index, a tech-heavy gauge, rose a record 10%. Turnover in the mainland topped 1.4 trillion yuan ($200 billion), to reach the highest in three years, despite the trading issues. Turnover in Hong Kong reached 445 billion Hong Kong Dollars ($57.2 billion), the highest on record. Meanwhile, Chinese companies listed in the US were poised to extend gains at the open as they rallied in premarket trading on Friday. As investors turned to risk assets over havens, China’s ultra-long government bond futures their biggest daily loss on record Friday. China’s 10-year bond yield rose 5 basis points at 2.16%.The rally also severely hit a number of in China, people familiar with the matter said. Some firms suffered losses because they shorted index futures for their so-called Direct Market Access strategies, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. In some cases, the losses were exacerbated by the exchange glitch that left them unable to sell holdings to meet margin requirements, another person said.Chinese authorities’ shift this week drove billionaire investor David Tepper to that he’s buying more of “everything” related to the country. “I thought that what the Fed did last week would lead to China easing, and I didn’t know that they were going to bring out the big guns like they did,” he said in a CNBC interview Thursday. “We got a little bit longer, more Chinese stocks.” The securities regulator’s to encourage companies to attract long-term investors also fortified the optimism already brewing in the market.The broad rally Friday was underscored by 266 of the CSI 300 Index’s 300 members ending the day in the green, with spirits maker and battery producer leading the surge. But Chinese bank stocks bucked the rally and fell, as investors weighed the implications of a 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) capital injection reported by Bloomberg News. China is planning to inject funds mainly raised from the issuance of new special sovereign bonds, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. The injection plan could lead to a 56 basis point dilution of return on equity, JPMorgan analysts including wrote in a note. The slump may also a reflect a shift away from sectors that were viewed as more resilient when the market was falling; with some of the nation’s highest dividend yields, Chinese banks have appealed to investors looking for stable returns.Some investors are looking for signs of more fiscal stimulus to drive the next leg of gains. “We can expect fiscal measures as well to come,” said Raymond Chen, a fund manager at ZiZhou Investment Asset Management. “This is for sure leaving many cynics behind.”Morgan Stanley is among a slew of China watchers gradually turning bullish, with strategist and her colleagues another 10% upside for the CSI 300 Index in the short term. Just days earlier, the Wall Street bank its preference for onshore stocks over offshore counterparts, citing a lack of supportive factors such as state buying.The optimism also drove higher with exposure to the world’s second-biggest economy as the risk-on mood intensified across the region.
