欧洲奢侈品股的故事在短短一周内发生了逆转。在大部分时间里，这行业由于中国需求放缓而备受压力，但最近五个交易日该行业反弹强劲，预计将是自2012年以来表现最佳的一周，股价涨幅超出了15%，创下历史新高。Birkin包制造商赫美国际、Cartier母公司瑞表、以及法国的LVMH等公司的股价都实现了大幅增长，超过了这一幅度。中国的刺激措施承诺以及LVMH最新财报的发布为市场的乐观情绪增添了动力。“我们感觉到市场可能已经触底，这时往往是买入的好时机。”RBC资本市场的一名分析师表示，“让我们感到意外的是，中国采取了刺激措施，并且对股市产生了积极影响。”
作为高价手袋、高端干邑和奢华时计的主要消费群体，中国政府的举措正好符合投资者期待看到的情况。
这样的巨大涨幅或许并不令人完全惊讶，因为近期分析师们已经调高了他们的预测，同时Gucci母公司意大利普拉达集团（Prada）、英国的Burberry以及德国服饰制造商Adidas等股价正处于多年低点。在这三个公司二季度发布盈利预警后，其股价今年都下跌超过三分之一。
这种跌幅消散了许多估值泡沫，虽然奢侈品行业股市相较于STOXX600指数仍处于高估状态，但已远非2021年的峰值水平。相对较低的估值开始吸引投资者的兴趣。Redwheel投资组合管理表示，在最近的行业低迷中，他开始建立了对LVMH的新持有，并将其视为一个持续稳定的公司，股价受到对中国和美国的担忧影响而被拖累。
尽管一些分析师认为中国提出的刺激措施不足以支撑最依赖其经济的股票上扬，但其他投资者提醒要注意错过良机的风险。Barclays策略师警告那些忽视这些股票的投资者可能会面临“痛苦的选择”。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Luxury Stocks Set for Best Week in Years as China Fuels Revival
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
The narrative on European luxury-goods stocks has flipped in the space of a week.Under pressure for most of the year due to a slowdown in Chinese demand, the sector has rebounded strongly over the past five days with a set to notch its best week since 2012.Stocks including Birkin bag-maker Hermes International SCA, Cartier-parent Richemont and France’s LVMH have all surged more than 15%, propelled by China’s pledge to . LVMH’s only added to the feel-good factor.“We did feel we were quite close to the bottom and that’s normally the time to buy,” said , an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “What surprised us and caught us offside a little bit is the fact that the China stimulus came and it had a very, very positive impact on share prices.”Given Chinese shoppers play an instrumental role in the fortunes of firms making items like pricey handbags, high-end cognacs and the glitziest timepieces, this is exactly what investors had been hoping for to stem the turmoil.The outsize gains are perhaps not entirely surprising given the from analysts recently, and with stocks like Gucci-owner , Britain’s and German apparel maker trading near multi-year lows. All three issued profit warnings during the second-quarter earnings season and their shares are down more than a third this year.The declines have taken much of the hot air out of valuations. While the still trades at a sizable premium to the gauge, it’s far off the roaring levels of 2021.Cheaper valuations have started attracting investor interest. Redwheel portfolio manager said he took advantage of the recent sector weakness to start a new position in LVMH, which he sees as a durable company whose shares have been weighed down by concerns over China and the US.“Eventually, sentiment and confidence will turn more positive. Whether this is the bottom is impossible to call, but if it is not, then it seems likely that further measures from the authorities will be forthcoming,” Clay said, referring to Chinese stimulus measures.While some see China’s measures as insufficient to sustain a rally in stocks most exposed to its economy, others have cautioned about the risk of missing out. Barclays Plc strategists that investors who have snubbed such stocks could face a “pain trade.”
