据中国银行的策略师表示，中国的大手笔刺激政策可能会引发全球资金流向股票市场的广泛轮动，不仅涵盖美国之外的市场、新兴国家和地区，还包括大宗商品等投资领域。“不受市场青睐”的工业金属、原材料及国际市场股票被视为‘最佳轮动广度选择’，前提是北京近期的措施能够确保中国10年期国债收益率维持在2%水平以下。团队领导人在一份周五发布的报告中如此写道。
预计这一系列刺激政策总规模可能达到5600亿美元，相当于中国国内生产总值的3%以上。策略师表示，在此背景下，投资者对中国市场的配置程度已降至自2017年6月以来最低点，与美国股市的比值接近历史低位，而中国的房地产市场相关股票的价格水平则回到了全球金融危机期间的状态。
本周以来，中国央行宣布降低存款准备金率和调整关键政策利率。中国政府领导人也承诺增加财政支出、支持经济，并稳定遭受重创的房地产业态。由此，内地及香港上市公司的股价飙升。CS 300指数在周五上涨了4.5%，使全周16%的增长成为自2008年以来表现最强势的一周。随着中国对大宗商品如铁矿石的需求增加，以及欧洲矿业、奢侈品等高度依赖中国市场需求的行业股票价值也同步走高。
与此同时，Barclays策略师团队以Kaanhari Singh为首重新强调了对中国市场的偏好，此前市场对中国经济复苏持续性的期望落空。“但我们现在认为，中国正致力于解决其结构性问题。这可能是一场规模不小的变革。”他们表示。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：BofA’s Hartnett Sees International Stocks Among Best China Plays
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
China’s sweeping stimulus measures could drive a broad rotation into stocks outside the US, as well as emerging markets and commodities, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.“Unloved commodities — industrial metals, materials and international stocks” are the “best rotation breadth plays,” so long as the steps announced by Beijing keep the new floor for China’s 10-year yields at 2%, the team led by wrote in a note on Friday. Total stimulus could reach $560 billion, equivalent to more than 3% of China’s GDP, the strategists said. At the same time, investors are the most underweight on commodities since June 2017, China equities are near a 50-year low versus their US peers, and Chinese property stocks are at levels last seen during the global financial crisis.Among the measures this week, China’s central bank announced a cut to the of cash banks must keep in reserve and a key policy-rate reduction. The nation’s leaders also up efforts to revive growth with pledges to support fiscal spending and stabilize the beleaguered property sector. Mainland and Hong Kong-listed shares have soared. The CSI 300 Index rose 4.5% on Friday, making the week’s 16% gain the most since 2008. Other assets exposed to to the Chinese economy jumped, including commodities such as iron ore, as well as European mining and luxury stocks, which are highly dependent on Chinese demand.Barclays Plc strategists led by Kaanhari Singh reiterated their preference for China over India. “Ever since the disappointment of the China reopening rally in November 2022, it has paid to fade market hopes of a sustainable China turnaround,” they said. “But we now think China is serious about tackling its structural issues. This could be big.”
