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本周末，中国经济的复苏策略、中美高层潜在对话的可能性以及穿越“信息长城”的关键信号成为本周焦点话题。我是驻北京记者James Mayger。当我们面对重大新闻事件时，作为报道第一现场的人，肩负责任既光荣也充满压力。比如央行行长在晚间突然宣布数百亿美元刺激政策的消息便足以激发出肾上腺素的强烈反应。
我的双手都在颤抖地敲击键盘。中国人民银行的举措如同巨型火箭炮，我之前从未在中国见过如此大规模、快速决策式的公开声明。这一公告时机精准，在股市开盘前，旨在提振投资者信心。尽管市场在消化了所有措施后有所震荡，但中国富豪大卫·特珀随后宣布将买入与中国相关的资产。
这种透明度和响应速度与外界国家相仿，尤其体现在央行行长在回答媒体提问时的后续行动，而非仅提供预备答案即匆匆离去的北京常规模式上。这一点特别突出，在一个官方信息不公开、决策多在暗处的国度里，我们通常能听到更多关于重大变动背后驱动因素的消息。
不同之处在于，在美国或其他国家类似情况下，我们对中国经济突然变化背后的决策动力知之甚少。重要决定往往不会被公然宣布，尽管有报道指这种紧急新闻发布会和意外公告反映了中国高层日益增长的担忧——他们担心无法达成今年的增长目标。
在政府从称经济表现出“稳定增长”的数据到宣布利率下调、银行再融资、资本补充仅相隔数日的背景下，这些秘密决策让人难以理解。当前的疑问是：已宣布的刺激措施是否足以扭转经济颓势？还是需要更多的政策支持？
尽管中国人民银行的行动迅速提振了市场信心，但激发出的肾上腺素很快消散，留下的只是一股挫败感和疲惫。然而，一周后传来一个消息：习主席及其高层决策者承诺将加大财政支出，稳定房地产市场，这一周变得不同寻常。
我们正处在等待观察阶段，以判断这些举措是否能助力中国经济复苏。在特朗普承诺如果当选就与中国国家主席通电话讨论《第一阶段贸易协议》之际，中美高层间的互动成为关注焦点。
特朗普在竞选集会上声称他会向习主席打电话，讨论他们于2020年初达成的《第一阶段贸易协议》。他指责习主席未履行购买价值500亿美元美国农产品的承诺，而中国仅进口了所承诺货物和服务总额的大约60%，包括食品、能源和制造产品，且这一情况持续至2021年。
我们想象一下中美两位领袖之间的对话可能如何展开：
电话铃声响起在中南海。
特朗普：“接起……再接起……还在等……”
习主席（在第十次挂断后接通）：“很高兴再次与你交谈，老朋友。我正打算给你打电话祝贺你的卓越胜利，并在百年未有之大变局下提出互利合作。”
特朗普：“感谢，习主席。那让我们直奔主题吧。你同意购买价值500亿美元的美国农产品作为交易的一部分。我现在代表美国民众前来索要款项。”
习主席：“我们有中国的说法，叫做‘逼上梁山’。为避免更不合理的关税，我们不得不答应达成协议。而你们并未回滚进口关税，反而对所有我们的商品提高了价格。当然，我们必须采取相应的报复措施。”
特朗普：“在这种情况下，让我们以最好的表现来决出胜负吧。”
习主席：“将来再说这个问题。”
在假设之外，中美两国都无法从持续的贸易战中获益。彭博经济学家Tom Orlik指出，60%的普遍关税可能会使美国经济几乎完全衰退，而类似中国对美出口商品征收的关税将导致美国销售额降为零——每年约损失1500亿美元。
Orlik还写道：“下一任美国总统应把更多时间精力花在加速美国发展上，而不是试图拖慢中国的发展。”这是本周引人关注的议题之一：最近一名日本男孩在前往学校途中被刺死于深圳这个科技中心，使得中国的爱国主义教育系统再次引发关注。
1989年天安门事件血腥镇压之后，中共决定采取更多措施确保民众忠诚度。这一决定催生了从儿童到大学生的“爱国主义教育”计划，并成为官方宣传的一部分。尽管有些人抱怨这类课程过于枯燥无味，它们对灌输年轻人的关键事实仍然非常有效。
比如，很容易找到能复述中国所谓抗日战争重要日期的人。其中一个日期是9月18日，标志着日本于1931年入侵满洲的纪念日，现已成为全民国防教育日，在此期间，各地城市都会鸣响警报器。而就在今年，一个10岁的深圳男孩在校园遇害，尽管当局未披露其动机且可能永远不会公开。
这起事件引发了对中国的教育系统是否传播了导致暴力仇恨的看法。此前一年，一位日本女性及其孩子遭到一名中国男子用刀袭击，致校车看护人死亡。还有几位美国大学教师也在公园中遭人袭击，所幸无人身亡。
中国政府已表明教室内的教学内容与近期一系列暴力事件之间存在关联，并宣称这两起涉及日本人事件是孤立的。“在中国没有所谓的日本仇恨教育，”外交部发言人林坚表示，“我们倡导学习历史，而不是传播仇恨，以避免战争悲剧重演。”
值得称赞的是，中国网络监管机构正在打击散布反日情绪的社交媒体账号。但同时也在限制公众对如何看待历史与日本进行反思的讨论，并删除了声称被遇害男孩父亲写给双方国恨言论的信件。
深圳——这个展现中国过去四十年改革开放成果光辉的城市里发生的这一事件，是对执政共产党及其所塑造民众观念的一大污点。封锁对不同方式传授重要历史讨论的钳制使问题更加严重。
如果您希望了解更多信息、最新动态或者提出相关意见，请随时关注我们的电子通讯，并期待更多深入报道。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Inside China’s Unusually Candid Stimulus Briefing on Economy
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
Welcome to Next China. Each week, we take you inside the economic giant that is China. To subscribe to this newsletter directly, click . This week, we delve into China’s energetic moves to revive the economy, what might happen in a Trump-Xi phone call and peek over the Great Firewall.Hi, this is James Mayger in Beijing. When a big news story breaks, being the person telling the world is a great responsibility — and also incredibly stressful. When the central bank governor of the world’s second-largest economy sits down at and immediately starts announcing hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus, it’s certainly enough to get the adrenaline flowing. As I blogged just afterward: “My hands were shaking as I sent those headlines. What a bazooka from the central bank. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an announcement before in China.”It certainly was by Pan Gongsheng, timed for just before the opening of the stock market to start the day off well for investors. Stocks once investors digested all the different measures, and billionaire investor David Tepper later said he was buying related to China.The transparency of the briefing resembled that in other countries, especially with Pan staying around afterward to answer a few more questions from journalists, instead of giving prepared answers and then rushing off as is the custom in Beijing. That is especially striking in a country where , not easier, and more and more .One big difference is that unlike in the US or elsewhere, we still don’t know much about what drives these big changes in China. Nothing that matters happens openly, although Bloomberg that the sudden press conference and surprise announcements were the results of growing anxiety among the top leadership over whether they could hit their growth target for this year.Those decisions in the dark leave everyone at a bit of a loss to understand how the government can go from the economy is posting “stable growth” on to suddenly announcing rate cuts, , bank recapitalizations and only 10 days later.Clearly, if officials from President Xi Jinping on down are now in agreement that the country needs all of that, things are much worse than they have been saying. The trillion yuan question now is: Will what was announced be enough or is more stimulus needed?The effect of the adrenaline rush the PBOC delivered quickly disappeared, leaving me feeling deflated and tired.But days after Pan’s big briefing, Xi and his top policymakers by vowing to support fiscal spending and stabilize the real estate sector.It’s been a memorable week. We’ll have to wait and see if it’s remembered for helping turn the economy around. What We’re Reading, Listening to and Watching:Donald Trump has promised to call Xi if he wins in November but the Republican nominee shouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese leader isn’t very cooperative, on trade at least.The former US president said during a campaign rally this week that he would phone his Chinese counterpart to discuss the so-called phase one trade agreement they reached in early 2020.Trump accused Xi of failing to honor a deal to buy $50 billion in US agricultural exports. China imported less than 60% of the promised goods and services — covering food, energy and manufactured products through December 2021.Taking just a few liberties, here’s how we thought a chat between the leaders of the two superpowers might go: Phone rings in Zhongnanhai.Trump: Pick up … pick up … pick up ...Xi (picks up on tenth ring): It is good to hear from you again my old friend. I was just about to call you to offer my congratulations on your remarkable victory and offer win-win cooperation in these complicated times unseen in a century.Trump: Thank you, President Xi. But let’s cut to the chase. You made a deal to buy $50 billion worth of our farm products. I'm here to collect on behalf of the American people.Xi: We have a Chinese saying for this — bi shang liang shan. For you that pretty much means “make me.” We had little choice but to agree to avoid more unreasonable tariffs. Have you rolled back your import duties? No. And now you are on all of our goods. Of course, we would have to retaliate in kind.Trump: In that case, may the best man — or country — win.Xi: Later. Call ends.Hypotheticals aside, neither country stands to benefit from another prolonged trade war. Bloomberg economist Tom Orlik says an across-the-board tariff of 60% would likely to the US almost entirely, while similar levies on US shipments to China would take US sales down to zero — an annual loss of about $150 billion.Orlik also wrote that “the next US president would be well-advised to spend more time and energy on speeding America’s advance and less on trying to slow China’s.” A weekly look at an item that’s been big water cooler news in China.The recent stabbing death of a Japanese boy while on his way to school in the southern tech hub of Shenzhen has put China’s patriotic education system in the spotlight.Following China’s bloody crackdown on protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989, the Communist Party decided it needed to do more to ensure its people were loyal. That led to what the party calls “patriotic education” from the youngest students to those in university, something also .While some complain the classes are mind-numbingly boring, they’re also effective at drilling key facts into youngsters’ heads. It’s easy to find people who can, for instance, rattle off important dates in what China refers to as the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression.One of those is Sept. 18, which marks the anniversary of Japan’s invasion of Manchuria in 1931. That date is now National Defense Education Day, a point authorities pound home by sounding sirens in cities across the country. Sept. 18 was also when the 10-year-old child was in Shenzhen, though authorities have not given his motive and likely never will.The killing is fueling concern that China’s education system is teaching hate that leads to violence. Earlier this year, a Japanese woman and her child were attacked by a Chinese man with a knife, resulting in the death of a school bus attendant. Some American college teachers were also slashed while walking in a park, though fortunately no one died.China has that there’s a link between what is taught in the classroom and the spate of violence. It has said both incidents involving Japanese people were isolated.“There is no so-called Japan-hating education in China,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said this week. “We advocate learning from history, not to perpetuate hatred, but to prevent the tragedy of war from happening again.”To their credit, China’s internet authorities have been cracking down on social media accounts that spew anti-Japanese sentiment.But they are also clamping down on widespread calls by ordinary people to reflect on how they view history and Japan. Censors have even purged a letter purportedly written by the Japanese 10-year-old’s father who said he wouldn’t stand behind hate of either China or Japan.His child’s death in Shenzhen – a gleaming city that stands for the best of what China has accomplished in more than four decades of opening up – is a black mark for the ruling Communist Party and what it instills in its people. Muzzling discussion about a better way to teach people important history makes it even worse.
