为了获取约翰·奥瑟斯（John Authers）的新闻通讯，请直接通过链接注册。
• 世界投资者似乎确实信任中国共产党了。
• 正在持续评估这是否真正体现了信任度。
• 成为共产主义施政的最大受益者，至少到目前为止是如此。
• 持续创造新的记录，尽管市场对于“软着陆”的信心仍然存在疑虑。
• 对于喜爱中国元素的爵士音乐家来说，他们的喜好甚至超过一般的听众。近期，关于中国投资者对中国共产党信任度的提升引发了一波关注。在周四，以国家主席习近平为首的政局委员会召开了临时会议，并宣布加强了之前央行释放的货币刺激政策。至少就市场而言，这个政府行动产生了重大影响，而且这种影响随著与中国的亲近程度而增强。
该300指数（CSI-300），追踪中国大陆上海证券和深圳证券交易所的最大规模上市公司的指标，在本周上涨超过10%，几乎回到了今年的高点水平。
在周四央行正式宣布降低银行必须持有的准备金后，这一涨势延续到了周五。上证综指进一步收涨2.7%。
当然，这一切需要置于中国股市自2021年初短暂繁荣后的惨痛下跌背景下审视。指数从高位暴跌超过50%，不过现在值得注意的是，该300指数比去年任何时候都更接近其200日移动平均线水平，这表明出现了显著的反弹迹象。
这一动态同样对海外市场的股票产生了影响，特别是在美国之外。FTSE全球市场指数距离其在2021年达到的历史最高点仅有咫尺之遥。
这导致了风险性资产的一些动荡。例如，克里斯·维尔罗恩（Chris Verrone）指出，新兴市场互联网ETF（EMQQ）至今已经在表现上超过了以纳斯达克100为代表的主导型的QQQ ETF，这是个令人震惊的变化。
此外，欧洲奢侈品股票作为直接反映中国新兴富人的趋势，其上涨尤为显著。在央行于周二召开非常不寻常的新闻发布会宣布一系列货币政策变动之后，与中国经济相关资产的行情出现了强劲反弹。
然而，经济学家和分析师对于仅仅是对经济局面反应不足的评价并不买账。相比之下，周四市场行为显示投资者认为政局委员会干预已经产生了实质性的变化。“仅从货币刺激政策看，这表明情况比人们意识到的更糟。”TS Lombard首席经济学家弗雷娅·比姆肖（Freya Beamish）评论说，“今天罕见的政治局会议虽然细节不多，但传递出强烈的信号：财政当局同样参与到此轮提振经济的行动中来。”
因此，持有中国资产的人们无疑更加乐观了。那么政局委员会究竟做出了哪些改变呢？没有具体数字说明，但用词比以往更简洁，削减对股市的支持和稳定房地产市场的措施被删除。更重要的是，除了习近平对于政策方向的认可外，一系列旨在提振经济、重振消费的宣言成为了亮点。
市场预期政府正在考虑增加银行贷款额度以及释放更多货币流动性的迹象也加强了这种信心。
尽管这未必能说服怀疑者中国即将走出经济困境，但它已经促使人们买入中国资产。彼得·奇尔（Peter Tchir）指出，刺激消费者需求是试图在西方国家主导的制造业转型过程中保持经济稳定的一种合理方式。
而《BCA研究》分析师马克罗·帕皮奇描述这是北京发出“不惜一切代价”的信号时刻——当政策制定者认识到节俭无助于摆脱困境，并且不那么担心被外界认为是在救助人民时，这种转变就会出现。北京现在更多关注的是防止政治风险而非道德风险。
然而，齐萨德·卡齐（Shehzad Qazi）表示对欧洲央行的比喻稍显夸张。“当欧洲中央银行前行长承诺不惜一切代价拯救欧元时，情况相似。”
尽管情况充满讽刺意味——世界金融市场因世界上最大共产国家的政治局指令激增；奢侈品牌和高价手袋制造商从这些共产党人那里获益最多；金融界现在充满兴奋感，因为似乎中共正开始认真考虑凯恩斯主义和社会福利制度。
这就是我们的现状。中国坚定地不希望让房价或股市进一步下跌，这消除了全球市场的尾部风险。这是好事。同时，北京也看起来正在努力使经济焕发活力，这对每个人实现“软着陆”的可能性都有所增强。
它们在西式信息管理策略上的成功已经恢复了西方国家的信心。面临的挑战依然存在，但外汇市场明确表示：中国政府需要采取措施，而美联储或许并未如此。Louis-Vincent Gave评论说，“当美联储出乎意料地宣布大规模降息时，美元下跌；而中国央行和政府的举措——超出预期的大规模刺激政策导致人民币上涨。”
黄金价格继续攀升，在周四交易中达到每盎司2660美元的历史最高点，这个持续数千年的宝贵金属。虽然这令人印象深刻但也有点奇怪。过去一周黄金价格大涨与美联储降息半个百分点的情况相吻合。
通常情况下，在美联储放宽货币政策时，作为避险资产的黄金价格上涨。作为一种对经济衰退和不确定性有正当看法的保护措施，近期的暴涨似乎与经济增长前景或市场预期之间存在脱节。
全球看来经济状况尚佳，衰退预测不再是发达和发展中国家的基本假设。为抗击疫情后通货膨胀而进行的战斗继续着，各国央行正处在各自政策周期的不同阶段。在这种背景下，黄金的飙升并不应令人感到惊讶，并且它与基于人工智能的S&P 500指数保持一致。
显然还需要更多的解释。历史上，金属价格相对股市最高点通常发生在最大不确定性时期——1929年大崩盘、1970年代中东危机以及全球金融危机等阶段。现在的情况与过去几轮相比并不相似。
然而，股票表现也未能超越一个不提供收益的资产。那么是什么原因呢？要么股市的上涨过度乐观，要么黄金价格是由与经济增长前景无关的因素驱动的。这里有一张图表记录了自从1929年大崩溃以来贵金属相对表现情况：
安吉利斯投资顾问公司的老练组合经理迈克尔·罗森同意很难找到推动黄金价格上涨的具体因素，但强于实物需求、地缘政治紧张和即将到来的美国总统选举的影响可能是其中的一些原因。金价从美联储削减利率后已经大幅上涨，并且进一步的宽松政策几乎已成定局，这是支持性的，但是高盛研究人员认为，黄金被超买，并且当前价格水平已经充分反映了深深的美联储降息。
黄金强劲的实物需求来自央行。高盛预估在2023年末前，它们将收购超过3000吨黄金，这是有史以来最快的速度。大部分库存增长来自美国之外，特别是中国。
DataTrek研究公司的尼古拉斯·科斯解释说，在储备资产持有方面，黄金相比主权债务更为合理，因为它无法被没收或制裁。这反映了不断上升的地缘政治风险，并不预示短期内经济衰退。
当美国经济运转良好时，低估经济衰退的迹象变得相对容易。那么黄金是否在发出警告信号呢？DataTrek的图表显示，纳斯达克100指数通常比黄金表现得更好，在过去十年中经常高出20个百分点或更多任何一年的时间段内。例外情况发生在2016年、2019-2020年和2022年，当时衰退担忧被提高或者经济出现收缩。
那么为什么在人们普遍预期“软着陆”的情况下，黄金再次超越了纳斯达克指数？科斯认为，在过去一年中黄金主导地位的持续性支持了这种认为这是经济衰退预警并可能推动价格进一步上涨的观点。Xs.com的雷纳·格尔补充说，美国国债收益率的下滑至约3.73%以及疲软的美元使得持有黄金变得更加具有吸引力。
投资者仍应保持谨慎： ——理查德·阿比
最后一批由歌曲致敬中国元素的推荐。你可以聆听Big Country乐队的《China Girl》、Pete Townshend的《Breadline China》、Billie Holiday（或任何其他版本）的《China Boy》、Fontaines D.C.的《Wish I Was Sober, Just For Tonight》、视频摧毁了《China Girl》、The Waterboys的《Silver Star》（月亮不是星星，但是歌中有很多天体相关参考）、Champs的《Starlight》或King Crimson的《Red Shift》。
对于爵士爱好者而言，你可以欣赏John Coltrane的《China》、Louis Armstrong的《My Man, The King of China》（完全不同的版本）、Wynton Marsalis的另一首《China Girl》、Duke Ellington的《China Gate》（又是一个完全不同类型的）以及Miles Davis的《Chinese Wall》（吉他电音版！），Chet Baker的《The China Cat》或Charlie Parker的《China Blues》。感谢所有提供的建议，它们帮助我发现了许多珍宝。
祝大家有一个愉快的周末。更多从Bloomberg Opinion：想要获得更多Bloomberg Opinion？
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Markets Suddenly Trust China Again, Up to a Point
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
To get John Authers' newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, sign up . • It looks like global investors really trust . • The jury is still out on whether this is a true . • are the biggest beneficiaries of communist largesse so far. • keeps setting new records, despite confidence in a soft landing. • AND: Jazz musicians like even more than the rest of us.Suddenly, a lot of people are placing a lot of trust in the Communist Party of China. On Thursday, the Politburo, headed by President Xi Jinping, held an unscheduled meeting and then that effectively amplified the monetary policy stimulus announced by the central bank earlier this week. On markets, at least, the leadership’s intervention had a big impact, and it got bigger the closer you were to China. The CSI-300, an index of the biggest mainland A-shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has rallied by more than 10% this week, and it’s nearly back to its high for the year:That rally extended Friday after the central bank confirmed it was cutting the that banks must hold, with the CSI-300 gaining another 2.7% in the morning session. This must of course be put in the context of a biblically awful run for Chinese equities since a brief boomlet ended early in 2021. The index fell more than 50% after that — although it’s still noticeable that the CSI-300 is now further above its 200-day moving average than at any time since then, which does suggest a significant reversal:It’s also had a real impact on equities beyond China’s borders, helping in particular to spur excitement outside of America. FTSE’s index of all world markets excluding the US has rallied within a whisker of its high from 2021: This has led to some upheavals among riskier assets. Chris Verrone of Strategas Research Partners points out that the Emerging Markets Internet ETF (known EMQQ) is now slightly ahead of QQQ, the juggernaut ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100, for the year so far. This week’s leap is startling: For another very direct impact, European luxury stocks regarded as a direct play on China’s newly wealthy :After Tuesday’s very unusual press conference by the People’s Bank of China to announce a range of monetary policy developments, China-related assets had a big day, even though the immediate reaction from economists and investment analysts was that it was too little and too late to make much difference. Thursday’s market action, by contrast, suggests that investors perceive the Politburo intervention to have made a real and substantive change. “By itself, the monetary policy stimulus was merely a signal that things are worse than people realize,” says TS Lombard’s Freya Beamish. “Today’s rare surprise Politburo meeting provided few details but sent a strong signal that the fiscal authorities too are on board.”So, if you hold Chinese assets, you’re probably much happier than you were last week. But what exactly has the Politburo changed? There are no numbers in its statement, but there are also fewer words than usual. Several analysts pointed out that verbiage about had been excised. It underwrote attempts to boost the stock market and put a floor under the housing market, along the lines that the PBOC had already announced. What perhaps mattered most, beyond Xi’s imprimatur for those policies, was a series of declarations of intent, including (according to the Google Translate rendering of the document that can be found ) commitments to: This is significant, arguably, because it shows Xi gets China’s crucial need is to prod consumers to start buying stuff again, and suggests that some old-fashioned will be tried to boost demand. Bloomberg News’ revelations that the government is considering a for banks, and Reuters news that will be issued, further raised confidence that the government means business.This doesn’t necessarily convince the skeptics that China’s economy is about to turn around, but it has prompted them to buy Chinese assets. Peter Tchir of Academy Securities said that boosting the consumer was a sensible way to try to tide the economy through the long process of transitioning away from reliance on building goods for foreign companies:Marko Papic of BCA Research described this as Beijing’s “whatever it takes” moment. This is because China has reached the point often seen in real estate and market crises where policymakers realize that austerity won’t work to lift them out of the trap, and they lose their squeamishness about being seen to bail people out. “Effectively, Beijing has reached a point where the policy focus shifts from guarding against moral hazard to guarding against political risks,” he said.However, Shehzad Qazi of China Beige Book suggested that comparisons to the , when the then-head of the European Central Bank promised to spare nothing to rescue the euro, were overdone.There are enough ironies in the situation to sink the Titanic. World capital markets leap on a diktat from the Politburo of the world’s largest communist state; European makers of jewellery and over-expensive handbags benefit more from those communists than anyone else; and the capital establishment is now excited because the communists look as though they’re going to get serious about Keynesianism and a welfare state. Which aforesaid communists previously didn’t seem to think was a good idea. But it’s where we are. China is determined not to allow either housing or share prices to fall further, which removes tail risk from global markets. That’s good. It also looks as though it will have a serious go at putting life into its economy, which would bolster everyone’s chances of a soft landing. It’s done a good job of western-style message management that has revived western confidence. The challenges facing its economy remain, but the forex market bottom line is clear that Beijing needed to act in a way that the Federal Reserve perhaps didn’t. As Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research commented, “When the Fed surprised the market with a bigger-than-expected interest rate cut, the US dollar fell; when the PBOC and the Chinese government surprised the market with a bigger-than-expected stimulus, the renminbi rose.”Gold’s continues. It topped $2,660 an ounce in Thursday trading, the highest price on record for a commodity that has been prized for millennia. But while that’s impressive, it’s also a little strange. Bullion’s rally in the past week has coincided with the Fed’s half-point rate cut. It’s usual for the price of safe-haven assets like gold to appreciate as the Fed eases policy. As a hedge against economic downturns and uncertainties, there’s a justifiable cause to view the recent surge as a sharp disconnect with growth projections or outlook. Apart from China, the global economic picture looks pretty decent, with recession forecasts no longer the base case for developed and emerging economies. The battle against post-pandemic inflation , with central banks worldwide at various stages of easing cycles. This shouldn’t be a conducive environment for a to rally, and yet it continues to keep pace with the artificial intelligence-powered S&P 500:Obviously, more explanation is needed. Historically, the metal’s strongest prices compared to the S&P 500 have coincided with the greatest periods of uncertainty — the Great Crash, the Middle Eastern crises of the 1970s, and the Global Financial Crisis. Now is at present nothing like such spikes. But stocks are also failing to outperform an asset that offers no yield. So what gives? Either the equities rally is overdone, or gold is being driven by factors that have little to do with skepticism around economic growth. Here’s a chart tracking gold’s relative performance, dating back to the Great Crash in 1929:Angeles Investment Advisors’ veteran portfolio manager Michael Rosen agrees that it’s hard to pinpoint the factors behind gold’s run, although strong demand for physical gold, heightened geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming US elections could all have an impact. Gold’s 30% year-to-date rise accelerated after the Fed’s cuts and further easing is virtually a given. That would be supportive, but Bank of America researchers suggest gold is overbought, and that prevailing price levels already discount deep Fed cuts:Gold’s strong physical demand has come from central banks. BofA estimates that between 2022 and the end of this year, they’ll have acquired over 3,000 tons, the fastest clip in history. The stockpiling has come mostly from outside the US, notably China. DataTrek Research’s Nicholas Colas explains that bullion is a reasonable alternative to sovereign debt in terms of reserve holdings because it cannot be confiscated or sanctioned. That speaks to rising geopolitical risk, he says, but doesn’t portend a near-term economic downturn.With the US economy humming along, it’s easy to understate harbingers of recessions. Is it possible gold is flashing warning signs? This DataTrek chart shows the Nasdaq 100 routinely outperforming gold over the last decade, often by 20 percentage points or more over any given one-year period. The exceptions came in 2016, 2019–2020, and 2022, when recession concerns were elevated or a contraction materialized:Why, then, is gold beating the Nasdaq again, when everyone expects a soft landing? Colas says gold’s continuing dominance over the last 12 months backs arguments that this is a recession warning that could justify further price increases. XS.com’s Rania Gule adds that a fall in Treasury yields to about 3.73% and a weak dollar enhance gold’s attractiveness, as holding it becomes less costly compared to investing in bonds. It still pays for investors to keep hold of the guardrails: —Richard AbbeyOne last consignment of songs inspired by . You could listen to Big Country’s , by Pete Townshend, by Billie Holiday (or ), by Fontaines D.C., Video Killed the by the Buggles, Randy Edelman’s , by the Waterboys (OK, the moon isn’t a star but there are umpteen celestial references in the song), by Champs, or by King Crimson. For the jazz-inclined, there’s John Coltrane’s , Louis Armstrong’s (totally different) , yet another by Wynton Marsalis, Duke Ellington’s (different again), and Miles Davis’ (featuring electric guitars!), Chet Baker’s , or Charlie Parker’s . Thanks for all the suggestions which have introduced me to some jewels. Have a great weekend. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
