今年迄今为止，中国政府已经发行了7,520亿元人民币（相当于约1072亿美元）特别主权债券，这一数字超过了原定在11月发行的1万亿元目标，据彭博社的计算显示。有消息称，为了向银行投入额外的1万亿元资金，政府正在考虑主要通过特别债券的形式实现。据彭博社报道，还计划今年内为地方政府与刺激消费发放总计2万亿元的特殊债券。
随着财政支出的承诺和相关举措的公布，中国30年期国债市场出现了抛售迹象。周四这一市场的上涨幅度接近了近两年来的最高水平。长期利率持续攀升，在本周早些时候达到了至少自2005年以来的最低点。对于30年期国债期货而言，则同样反映了类似趋势。
尽管目前具体的决策和细节仍有待确认，但媒体报道中的债券发行计划将显著增加主权债务的供应量。“根据去年的经验——当年在10月份批准了额外的债务额度，并于11月份开始实际发行债券——我们也预期今年第四季度末会出现额外的债券供应。”标准渣打银行中国宏观策略部门的负责人刘氏如是说。他预计，中国政府债券回报曲线的持续上扬因素之一即是中国政府债券供给量的增长，另一个则是强劲刺激计划的出现。
与之形成鲜明对比的是，中国的股市正经历着异常火热的复苏态势。本周市场的积极信号使得风险偏好提升，同时也减少了对避险资产的需求。“受特别主权债券发行影响，长端10年期国债收益率预计将面临进一步上涨压力。”DBS银行策略团队包括、在报告中指出，“投资者对中国经济的信心回归也是推动其市场走势向上的关键因素。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Bond Rally Shudders to Halt on Bill for Stimulus Efforts
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
A flurry of news on China’s use of special sovereign debt to fund fresh stimulus highlights a growing risk to its record bond rally — a surge in new supply.Officials have issued some 752 billion yuan ($107.2 billion) of the securities so far this year out of a planned 1 trillion yuan by November, according to calculations by Bloomberg. Now they are said to be mulling an additional 1 trillion yuan of capital injection into banks, mainly using special bonds, Bloomberg on Thursday. And reported a planned 2 trillion yuan of special issuance this year for local government use and to stimulate consumption.Alongside the pledge for sufficient fiscal spending, the reports led to a selloff in China’s 30-year government bonds, where surged by the most in nearly two years on Thursday. The longer-dated yields extended gains Friday, having hit the lowest since at least 2005 earlier this week. Thirty-year bond futures .While any decisions remain to be confirmed and details finalized, the reported debt issuance would bring significant upside to sovereign debt supply.“Based on experience last year - when additional debt quota was approved in October and actual issuance started in November - we also see additional bond supply toward late 4Q,” said , head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank Plc. Liu expects China’s yield curve to continue to steepen with supply as one reason and the stronger-than-expected stimulus plan another.The slide in bonds comes in sharp contrast to the red-hot rally in Chinese , which were on track for their best week since global financial crisis. China’s campaign to boost market confidence this week has boosted risk appetite and dampened demand for haven assets.“The long-end 10-year yield will see further upward pressure due to the special sovereign bond issuance,” DBS Bank strategists including and wrote in a note. “The return of investor confidence in the Chinese economy will also contribute to the upward march.”
