去年四月以来最急剧的下滑速度，为中国工业企业的利润跌落情况提供了进一步确证，从而支撑了北京急于推出刺激政策以提振需求的观点。
国家统计局宣布，中国大型企业在8月份的年度利润同比减少17.8%，与前月增长4.1%形成鲜明对比。今年头八个月，企业累计利润增幅为0.5%，总额达4.65万亿元人民币。经济学家大卫·奎（David Qu）认为，工业领域的疲软、增长数据走弱和通胀风险的迹象很可能促成了最高层对扩大刺激政策的决心。
他注意到8月份的增速有所放缓至3.5%，但预计今年前八个月相比前七个月的增长率将保持稳定。这组数据显示的是衡量工厂、矿业及公用事业等实体经济健康状况的重要指标，其变动可预见未来数月的投资决策方向。
国家统计局解释称，8月份出现首次下降的原因是市场需求疲软、部分地区高温与洪水的影响以及比较基数较高，这些因素共同作用导致了利润下滑。余伟宁（Yu Weining）指出：“国内消费动力仍然不足，外部环境复杂多变，工业利润率恢复的基础仍需进一步巩固。”
在最新数据发布的背景下，制造业的增速略显疲弱，持续放缓的趋势已触及近三年来最长记录。经济活动的疲软尤其在消费数据中的表现尤为明显。
利润缩水反映了在缺乏强劲国内需求支撑的情况下更脆弱的整体经济状况。同时，数据显示生产价格自2022年底以来一直在下滑，加剧了通缩风险在中国扎根的担忧。
鉴于世界第二大经济体面临增长目标可能未能实现的前景——预期至少为5%，中国政府本周调转方向并宣布了一揽子刺激措施以推动经济增长。高层会议也强调需要加大财政支持和其他一系列措施，体现了对经济放缓速度和力度更为紧迫的关注。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Industrial Profits Dip First Time in Months During Economic Slowdown
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
Profits at China’s industrial firms fell at the sharpest pace since April last year, bolstering the case for urgent measures to lift demand as Beijing a strong stimulus package.Industrial profits at large Chinese companies decreased 17.8% on year in August, after a 4.1% gain in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement Friday. Earnings growth grew 0.5% to 4.65 trillion yuan in the first eight months compared to the same period last year.“Deterioration in the industrial sector, along with weak readings on growth and signs of deflationary risks, probably fed into decisions at the highest level to ramp up stimulus,” said David Qu, economist at Bloomberg Economics.Qu had a deceleration to 3.5% last month but expected growth to stay steady in the January-August period relative to the first seven months of the year. The figures are a key gauge of measuring the financial health of factories, mines and utilities that can affect their investment decisions in the months to come.The NBS blamed the August slowdown — the first drop in five months — on a lack of market demand, the effect of high temperature and floods in some areas, as well as a high base of comparison.“Domestic consumer demand is still weak, the external environment is complex and changeable, and the foundation for the recovery of industrial profit still needs to continue to consolidate,” Yu Weining, NBS statistician, said in a statement accompanying the release.The latest reading came against the backdrop of a slower-than-expected increase in last month, when it extended a weakening streak to the longest in almost three years. The slowdown became more apparent during a weak that showed little sign of any imminent recovery in consumption.Thinner profit margins reflect the frailty of the broader economy in the absence of stronger domestic demand. Underscoring the drag on earnings, producer prices have been falling since late 2022, intensifying fears that deflation was becoming entrenched in China.With signs mounting that the world’s second-largest economy risked missing Beijing’s goal of expanding around 5%, the government pivoted this week and unveiled a broad package of stimulus to revive growth. The country’s top leadership also used its monthly huddle to call for stronger fiscal support and other steps that signaled a growing urgency to arrest the slowdown.
