上海居民米琪里（化名）每周末都会与家人光顾附近新开的Pop Mart商店，享受探索新鲜商品的乐趣已成为他们的习惯。她热衷于收集隐藏版玩具——一款神秘包装的商品，里面装着店里标志性角色的卡通造型，比如以GARFIELD、MINION或是超人装扮的形象。家中已有数十个这样的收藏品。“这些玩具能帮助你摆脱工作压力，立即获得惊喜。”米琪里说，“它们是你可以定期购买、奖励自己的完美礼物。”
Pop Mart是当下众多中国消费者喜爱的品牌之一，在这股消费热潮中崭露头角，成为股市的宠儿。其在香港上市的股票今年上涨超过150%，表现位居市场前列。尽管中国经济面临持续的放缓和消费趋势下降的压力，但Pop Mart实现了逆风增长。公司上调了2024年销售额指引至人民币100亿元（约美元14亿美元），前六个月的收入增长60%以上。
据市场观察者分析，这一成就得益于中国消费者在经济低迷时期对所谓“流行玩具”的旺盛需求，这些玩具不仅提供情感价值，还能满足社交需求。总部位于北京的玩具制造商会员数量在中国大陆已超过3900万人，截至今年6月的数据。盲盒娃娃通常售价为人民币69元起跳，而其他大型限量版玩具价格可高达数千元。
“这完全是自由消费，但流行IP、神秘的收集元素与社交需求相结合，使得其需求异常坚韧。”Nomura International HK Ltd的分析师说，“中国年轻人在购买汽车或房产之外，通过收藏这些流行玩具找到乐趣。”
在类似Instagram的社交媒体平台小红书上（Xiaohongshu），用户们展示各自的收藏品，分享对玩具的热爱——从设计到购入时的情感记忆。与此同时，市场上也出现了灰色市场现象，在Dewu和QianDao等应用程序中，热门且难求的玩具价格可能达到原始售价数倍。
Pop Mart股票目前市盈率约为23.7倍，接近其三年平均水平。据Bloomberg编制的一份报告，基于分析师建议，有28家投资机构推荐购买Pop Mart，两家保持观望态度，未有任何“卖出”评级。
国际市场业务的强劲表现也增强了投资者的信心。上半年，公司包括香港、澳门在内的海外市场的销售额增长了超过三倍，占总营收约三分之一。比如在泰国和东南亚邻国引起热潮的小怪兽Labubu，吸引粉丝长队，激发当地消费者的购买热情，并推动泰国的多个相关行业的发展。
东南亚市场对国际收入贡献占比达41%，东亚洲次之。摩根士丹利预计Pop Mart将在下半年开设30至40家新店，主要集中在东南亚和美国等地区。
尽管Pop Mart自2010年创立并上市以来并非一帆风顺——其股价曾经历2022年的两年连续下跌，期间业务受到疫情冲击，并且面临监管挑战。直到中国相关部门于2023年发布了对盲盒业务的指导性文件后情况才有所缓解。
对于像米琪里这样的消费者来说，虽然“盲盒热”令人兴奋，但也可能产生高昂的成本。“如果孩子决定‘必须’拥有某个特定的塑形玩具，并不断要求购买直到得到想要的那个——有时在打开神秘包装时发现并不是她想买的那个，那就麻烦了。”米琪里说，“我们得去店里买三个额外的，却还是没有得到需要的那个。我们会在那里呆上半个小时，直到把她拽出店门。”
“如果无法控制自己持续消费的行为，情况会变得很糟。”米琪里总结道。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Pop Mart: Blind Box Toys Spur China Consumer Bright Spot’s 150% Rally
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
Checking out the latest arrivals in a Pop Mart store near their apartment has become a weekend routine for 34-year-old Shanghai resident Miki Li and her family.Li likes collecting blind box toys, or cartoon figurines in mystery packaging, featuring versions of the store’s signature character dressed up like Garfield, a Minion or Ultraman. She has dozens at home.“It gives you a way to escape from work stress and gain instant excitement,” she said of not knowing which toy will be inside the box. It’s the “perfect gift you can regularly buy to reward yourself.” Li is among the millions of Chinese consumers who have turned . into a rare consumption bright spot and equity market darling. Its Hong Kong-listed stock has surged more than 150% this year, making it one of the top performers on the .The rally sets Pop Mart apart amid China’s ongoing . The firm raised its 2024 sales guidance to 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) after a more than 60% jump in revenue for the first six months of the year, defying the nation’s sluggish growth and declining consumption trends.Pop Mart’s ascent has been fueled by Chinese consumers’ robust appetite for so-called pop toys that offer emotional and social value in economic downturns, market watchers say. The Beijing-based toymaker has increased its member base in mainland China to over 39 million as of June. The company’s blind box dolls typically have a starting price of 69 yuan, while other bigger-sized, limited edition toys can go for as high as a couple thousand yuan.“It’s 100% discretionary spending, but the combination of popular intellectual property, blind box novelty and social needs have made its demand especially resilient,” said , an analyst at Nomura International HK Ltd. “Young people that are not buying a car or a house in China find joy in collecting these pop toys.”On China’s Instagram-like social platform Xiaohongshu, users showcase collections that can take up a full room and talk about their dolls like treasures, from their designs to memories from when they were purchased. There are also gray markets, where the popular and rare-to-find toys can sell at several times their original prices on Chinese apps like Dewu and QianDao. Pop Mart’s stock currently trade at 23.7 times forward multiples, around its three-year average. Of the 30 compiled by Bloomberg, 28 are buys and 2 are holds, with no sell ratings. The toymaker’s strong momentum abroad is also fueling investors’ bullish sentiment this year. Sales from overseas markets including Hong Kong and Macau have more than tripled during the first six months of the year, and make up about a third of total revenue. Take Labubu, a small monster with high, pointed ears and serrated teeth that sparked a craze in Thailand and neighboring Southeast Asian countries. The plush doll counts BlackPink’s Lisa as a , attracts long store lines and has inspired in Thailand.Southeast Asian markets accounted for 41% of international revenue in the first six months of the year, followed by East Asia. The company aims to open 30 to 40 new stores in the second half, mainly in the Southeast Asia and the US, according to Morgan Stanley. Pop Mart didn’t respond to Bloomberg’s email requests for an interview or comment.Founded in 2010 and publicly listed in 2020, Pop Mart wasn’t always an investor darling. Its shares suffered two years of losses through 2022 as the company’s business struggled during the pandemic. Regulatory concerns also plagued the firm until Chinese authorities issued on blind box businesses in 2023.The popularity of figures like Molly — a short-haired girl with an iconic pouting expression — also challenged the market’s conventional view that characters without narratives won’t succeed. Unlike ’s Mickey Mouse or ’s Hello Kitty, Pop Mart’s toys don’t have stories behind them and instead rely on introducing new versions with changing contexts to boost their vitality.To win investors long term, Pop Mart will need to sustain the longevity of its most beloved toy characters while continuing to introduce new ones. And it will need to keep luring customers like Miki Li, for whom blind box fever — while exciting — can become costly. Li said her 7-year-old daughter would decide she “has to” have a specific figurine, and keep asking to buy blind boxes until she gets the one she wants — once opening the mystery packaging in a store and bursting into tears when realizing she didn’t get her desired toy.“My husband then bought three more, and unfortunately didn’t get what she needed. We spent half an hour there until we dragged her out of the shop,” Li said. “It’s a nightmare if you can’t control yourself and keep spending.”
