预计今年本应是百年老牌汽车制造商股票的反弹之年，然而，这些企业长期以来积攒的涨幅却已停滞不前。随着汽油动力车辆阵容吸引投资者之时，电动汽车需求开始下滑，它们深陷尴尬境地。但本周接连发布的两则下调警告让投资者警惕起背后的挑战：来自中国买家对美国汽车兴趣减弱、美国消费者面临高昂价格以及传统汽车制造商需大规模筹集资金以建立电动车型与自动驾驶技术所需基础设施的困境。
对于中国市场而言前景暗淡，有分析人士提出通用汽车（GM）应考虑全面退出。在疯狂热潮消退之前，这两只股票的交易价已经触及标准普尔500指数中一些最低估值。这股合力促使华尔街开始调整预期。“广泛市场反弹与部分早期电动车泡沫逐渐褪去”助长了像通用和福特这样的股票上扬，“但站在更宏大的视角上看，这一群体并未能找到适应世界前进方向的答案，即软件驱动与自动驾驶运输；他们充其量只是一个大宗商品业务。”
在这段时间里，通用汽车股价在周五之前曾面临着一个季度下跌的可能，而同期，福特的股票已经下降了13%。相比之下，电动汽车巨头特斯拉（Tesla Inc.）的表现则更加坚挺。该公司由首席执行官埃隆·马斯克领导，在这一期间其股价增长近30%。这背后原因主要归因于特斯拉计划在10月10日举行的备受期待的“机器人出租车”发布会——外界普遍关注的是，特斯拉将在这场发布会上披露其自动驾驶技术。
特斯拉的强势与传统汽车制造商形成了鲜明对比。尽管特斯拉将在下周报告9月份结束季度的销售数据。分析师们近来正在提高对电动汽车在中国销量的预期。这导致了特斯拉和美国汽车制造商业务之间的分歧，但这只是暂时的情况。考虑到中国庞大的汽车生产规模，分析人士表示任何美国公司都难以在这片市场保有份额。更重要的是，警告称中国的竞争对手很快可能向美国市场进发。
中国作为世界第二大经济体，既是重要的汽车制造商也是消费者，伯恩斯坦的Roeska和摩根士丹利的Jonas都将该国家视为对GM及其他美国汽车制造商业务构成重大威胁的焦点所在。尤其是对于通用汽车而言，“或许是时候全面退出中国市场了。”分析师指出。
通用汽车将在10月8日举行投资者日会议时，可能会针对此问题做出回应。“容易想到美国汽车工业是一个被关税保护的堡垒，中国难以触及。”摩根士丹利的Jonas在周三的一份报告中写道：“这是错误的观点。”
该分析员认为，并非一定要中国企业直接进入美国市场才会伤害到美国汽车制造商。指出，在其他有利可图的市场上面临的压力会迫使全球汽车行业在全球范围内更加努力地争夺美国市场份额。
根据Roeska的预期，通用汽车2023年下半年国际业务量预计会收缩35%，其在中国的合资企业业绩持续低迷。他还估计中国的合资公司平均售价下滑幅度在两位数以上，并指出折扣已飙升至接近50%低于官方价格。“从亏损的角度看，在中国看不到尽头线，难以理解它们如何能解决连续表现不佳的问题。”分析员补充说。
对于特斯拉而言，其市值几乎相当于通用和福特的总和近9倍，估值主要基于公司有望成为自动驾驶汽车领头羊的可能性。这使得中国的风险似乎没有那么紧迫。目前，GM 和 Ford 的股票交易市盈率仅为12个月预测收益的一位数百分比，视其为传统汽车制造商；相比之下，特斯拉的估值高达92倍，甚至超过了英伟达公司（Nvidia Corp.）和苹果公司（Apple Inc.）等大型科技公司的估值。“通用和福特都在转向技术先进车型而非传统的汽车，而特斯拉仍被视为下一代如机器人出租车这样的车型创新者的核心，因此它的估值要高得多。”米勒·塔巴克+公司的首席市场策略师这样评论道。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：GM, Ford (F) Stocks’ Rally Stalls as China Threat Brews
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
It was expected to be the comeback year for the shares of century-old carmakers, and , but a long overdue catch-up rally is already stalling. Their deep lineups of gas-driven vehicles were back investors just as demand for electric cars started to falter. But a pair of downgrades this week warned investors of the challenges that have been piling up; flagging interest in American cars from Chinese buyers, prohibitive costs for US customers and traditional automakers’ need to raise massive amounts of capital to build the infrastructure for battery-driven cars and self-driving technologies.The outlook in China is so bleak that one analyst said GM should consider exiting the country completely. Even before the euphoria dissipated the pair of stocks were trading at some of the cheapest multiples in the benchmark S&P 500 Index. All together, these forces are pushing Wall Street to recalibrate expectations. “The broadening market rally and some of the early EV hype wearing off gave a bump to stocks like GM and Ford,” said , portfolio manager at Longboard Asset Management. “However, in the bigger picture this is not a group of companies that have an answer to where the world is going, which is software and autonomous transportation. They are at best a commodity business.”GM shares were flirting with their first quarterly drop after three straight quarters of gains before reversing on Friday, Ford’s stock is down 13% over the same stretch. EV-giant Tesla Inc. has fared better, shares of the -led company have gained nearly 30% in the period. Tesla’s turnaround comes ahead of the much-anticipated Robotaxi Day on Oct. 10, when the company is expected to unveil its self-driving technology. It’s the main focus for the company’s investors right now, even though Tesla is due to report sales numbers for the three months ending in September next week. Analysts have been ratcheting up their expectations recently, pointing to a in EV sales in China. That’s left a divide between Tesla and the traditional carmakers, but only for now. Given the massive scale of auto production in China, analysts say it will be difficult for any US company to retain market share there. More importantly though, Chinese rivals could soon hit the US market, some warn. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major automotive producer and consumer. Both at Morgan Stanley and at Bernstein flagged that country as a major pain point for GM, as well as for other US automakers, with Roeska saying that it “may be time for GM to exit” that market. Investors may hear the company’s response when GM holds its investor day on Oct. 8. “It’s easy to think US autos is a tariff-protected ‘citadel’ that China can’t touch,” Morgan Stanley’s Jonas wrote in a Wednesday note. “This is wrong.” Chinese firms’ excess capacity doesn’t have to directly enter the US in order to hurt American carmakers, the analyst said, noting that rising pressure in other lucrative markets can push global auto companies to “fight harder” for sales in America. Bernstein’s Roeska expects GM’s international business volume to contract by 35% in the second half of the year as its joint ventures in China continue to languish. He also estimates double-digit declines in average selling prices for the China ventures, noting that discounts have soared to nearly 50% off listed prices.“As far as losses are concerned, there is no end in sight in China, and it is unclear how they can fix the continued underperformance,” the analyst added.For Tesla, with a market capitalization nearly 9-times GM and Ford’s combined, valuation is largely pinned on the company’s potential to become a leading player in self-driving cars, making the China risk appear less urgent.GM and Ford stocks trade at mid-single-digit multiples to their forward 12 month earnings, valued as traditional car manufacturers, while Tesla trades at 92 times — dwarfing even mega-cap technology companies such as Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. “GM and Ford are pulling back from technologically advanced vehicles and concentrated on traditional ones, while Tesla is still seen as being on the cutting edge of the next generation of vehicles like the Robotaxi, so they command a much higher valuation,” said , chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.
