日本自民党在决定下任总裁时，可能选择了石破茂，他将成为下一任首相。这一决策并非仅仅出于政治惯例而是具有深远的影响：这标志着党的转向，并可能导致政策的变革。
日本当前领导人倾向于采取务实外交，这种策略实质上是对中国更为温和的态度，主张“双赢”外交，并在中美之间寻求更加中立的位置，此决定很可能让美国感到不满。美行政首脑拜登曾倚重日本承担亚洲盟友遏制大陆的任务；然而，在中国的社交媒体持续煽动对日敌意的情况下，石破茂的较为接纳政策可能并非应对这一现状的最佳策略。
至于经济方面，则可能是与石破茂晋升联系最为直接的关键领域。反对安倍经济学的理念在某种程度上解释了其政策中的某些自相矛盾之处。“他的其他计划则模糊不清。”分析指出。
另一方面，反对党可能会组织起来对抗长年执政的自民党——这支部派在日本战后几乎不间断统治至今，但正日渐失去公信力。Fumio Kishida首相辞职的消息导致了自民党做出了一项激进的选择——石破茂继任。
在胜利前，石破茂曾参与动漫《龙珠》的cosplay，并以该角色的形象出现在社交平台X上——其能力可摧毁行星和星系。作为首相，他将需要具备非凡的能力，但无需特别的装扮。
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在宣布新的核武器使用规则后确定了更清晰的战略指导方针。普京表示，“鉴于现代军事政治环境迅速变化及对俄罗斯与盟友构成的新威胁源，我们有必要进行考虑。”Marc Champion早在几周前就对此趋势做了预测，并强调尽管存在核打击的可能风险依然遥远。
然而，Marc补充到最新战略变革仅仅是为了恢复俄罗斯在核威胁上失灵的可信度，而并未实质消除实施大规模核攻击面临的巨大障碍。普京使用核武器的结果“将几乎没有获得任何利益，却带来重大负面影响”。
Hal Brands提出，对于普京而言，真正的问题并不在于核冲突，而是在于持续对欧洲进行破坏与颠覆的战略计划，并且通过在红海等其他冲突区域加剧地缘政治动荡。他强调乌克兰的战争作为全球影响范围广泛冲突的一个典范。
马克·斯通德斯特德注意到俄罗斯可能发出的额外升级警告之一——乌总统泽伦斯基所透露的情报显示，俄罗斯军队正在策划攻击并关闭乌克兰剩余核电站，导致其被轰炸；这一可能性正日益增长。
Chris 拜恩特引用文章《柏林的音乐革命：技术场景的存在依赖于历史奇观》，探讨了柏林夜生活文化的历史背景以及它如何受到廉价房产和废弃空间的影响。在新千年，租金已经上涨，对于夜店业主来说，成本计算不再有效。
另一方面，瑞士手表出口中国和香港持续疲软、路威酩轩集团旗下的Sephora在中国裁员10%（约4000人的员工总数），以及欧洲旅游业的放缓均显示出市场的悲观情绪。
“英国人需要偶尔放空一下自己”，这是对生活的一种放松态度的表达。在这一层面上， Adrian Woodridge 提供了一种看待日常生活的视角，并引用了安妮·卡森的一句话，“新的时代来临”——Andreas Kluth的观点揭示了媒体巨头理查德·布拉德福德对英国首相柯尔星（Keir Starmer）才艺的批判。
Chris Hughes 引用了新闻界观点“墨多克仍然站在错误的一边”，以及Mihir Sharma 分析印度在政治领域的变化。关于美国和日本对于中国议题不同反应背后的原因，Karishma Vaswani 进行了深入探讨，并提出四国机制（Quad）的沉默是否过早成为疑问。
Merryn Somerset Webb对全球经济增长前景持怀疑态度，并提出了“繁荣过时”的可能性。在文章中还加入了Daniel Moss的一段关于时尚与消费的内容。
最后，Yikes! Trump and Harris爱着的是……这一标题下的内容可能是指特朗普和哈里斯对某种事物的喜爱，具体未详细阐述。
伦敦的 Walbrook 河是城市历史的一部分，自15至16世纪以来一直作为重要水源存在。然而，在河底隐藏着数百具头骨，历史学家推测这些头骨或可追溯到罗马时期，或者有可能是英国统治者对叛乱者的执行后留下的遗骸。
伦敦是一个具有深厚历史与情感沉淀的城市，与泰晤士河紧密相连。在9月22日（也正值世界河流日），伦敦举办了庆祝活动，展示了一系列优秀的照片沿河两岸，让人感受到城市的历史痕迹。如果你身处此地，请不妨漫步河边，感受这份历史的底蕴。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's Next Prime Minister, Might Make the US and China Unhappy
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a riveting reification of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. .Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party might have gone other ways in picking its new president, who will almost automatically become the country’s next prime minister. It might have chosen its first woman leader — Sanae Takaichi. She would also have been a vote for continuity with the policies of the late Shinzo Abe, which are partly credited with getting Japan out of its lost decades of economic malaise. The LDP might also have skewed younger and picked the dashing Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old son of a previous equally dashing premier. Instead, the party picked Shigeru Ishiba, who has cast himself as the anti-Abe for years. Gearoid Reidy: “[W]hile Ishiba might be another Japanese man in his late 60s, he truly represents a different direction for the party. Ishiba is the LDP’s consummate outsider, a dissident who has spent his career refusing to acquiesce to orthodoxy.” For one, the new leader has favored a utilitarian diplomacy that, in effect, would be a softer Japanese line toward China. Gearoid writes: “Ishiba [is arguing] for ‘win-win’ diplomacy and seeming to advocate for a more neutral position between Beijing and Washington.” That is unlikely to make the US happy. The Biden administration had been counting on Japan to carry much of the weight of an Asia-Pacific alliance to contain the Mainland. Ishiba’s more accommodating policy may also not be a realistic response to a China where hostility toward Japan is constantly stoked by social media, a cyber problem that Catherine Thorbecke about this week.But the economy may be what’s most at stake with Ishiba’s ascent. “Stubborn opposition to Abenomics is sometimes the only way to make sense of some of his contradictory policies,” says Gearoid. “The rest of his plans are muddy.” Meanwhile, the opposition may actually get its act together to confront the LDP, which has ruled Japan almost uninterruptedly since the end of World War II but has been losing much of its credibility with the public. Plummeting polls are what led outgoing prime minister Fumio Kishida to decide to step down, leading to the radical choice of Ishiba as his successor.Known to participate in cosplay, Ishiba once from the manga series Dragon Ball, as Gearoid posted on X before his victory. That character has the ability to destroy planets and galactic systems. Ishiba is going to need superpowers as prime minister, but maybe skip the costume.After hinting at it for weeks, Vladimir Putin set out a new set of rules to help Russia decide if it would use nuclear weapons. Making it official, Russia’s president said, “We see the modern military and political situation is dynamically changing and we must take this into consideration. Including the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies.” Marc Champion his threat a couple of weeks ago when it was first bruited and concluded: “while the risk of his launching a nuclear weapon exists, it remains distant.” In , Marc says, “The latest change of doctrine should be seen as an attempt by the Kremlin to restore credibility to nuclear threats that have begun to lose their power. It does nothing to remove the enormous hurdles to actually following through with a nuclear attack.” A nuclear strike, Marc wrote, “would bring Russia few if any benefits, but major downsides.”In his column this week, Hal Brands says Putin is — but not in the nuclear way that would bring violent retribution from the US and the rest of its allies. Hal says to expect the “ongoing campaign of sabotage and subversion targeting Europe” to continue. It’s a strategy where Putin’s fingerprints will be almost untraceable. “The second type of escalation,” he says, “involves exacerbating geopolitical turmoil in other conflict zones, particularly the Red Sea.” He adds: “The conflict in Ukraine is a , a high-stakes conflict that is drawing in rival countries and coalitions from around the world. The effects of wars with global implications rarely stay contained.”And then there’s what might happen on the ground in Ukraine itself. “Russia is sending out other, more plausible, escalation warnings that have gotten less attention,” says Marc. “One, perhaps ironically, came via Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, when he said his intelligence services had discovered that Russia’s military was planning to take Ukraine’s remaining nuclear power plants offline by bombing them. This could happen.” “The techno scene [in Berlin] owes its existence to an historical anomaly. When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, there were heaps of abandoned spaces for clubbing to flourish and property was astonishingly cheap. Even in 2008, renting a two-bedroom penthouse just a short walk from [the techno temple] Berghain cost me €800 a month. … Since then, the German capital has become gentrified by more people like me, and for many club-owners, the math no longer adds up.” — Chris Bryant in “.”“The hoped-for rebound in top end goods this year has yet to materialize. … Indeed, concerns are rising that the market has declined further amid a prolonged economic downturn and housing slump. Weak Swiss watch exports to China and Hong Kong; LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE’s Sephora laying off 10% of its 4,000-strong workforce in China and sluggish tourism to Europe are all adding to the sense of gloom.” — Andrea Felsted in “.” Everybody needs a sometimes. — Adrian WoodridgeA new era in . — Andreas KluthMurdoch’s still on the wrong side of . — Chris HughesIndia’s . — Mihir SharmaWhy is the Quad silent on ? — Karishma VaswaniIs over before its time? — Merryn Somerset WebbHere’s a touch of showbiz with your . — Daniel MossYikes! Trump and Harris love one thing: . — Lionel LaurentJust outside the Bloomberg building here in London is Walbrook, a street mainly used by pedestrians and cyclists. But underneath the passage runs a river by the same name that was once a major source of water for the city and a subterranean culvert since the 15th and 16th centuries. Beginning in the 19th century, construction workers have found the remains of hundreds of human skulls. Historians have speculated that they might date from as far back as the Roman period. One set of skulls showed the consequences of blunt force. Could they have been gladiators? There was an amphitheater not far away (in fact, at London’s Guildhall, a five-minute walk from where I work). Or were these the heads of rebels executed by Britain’s Roman masters?The sheer number of the remains (apparently mostly the top of skulls) could simply be the accumulation of centuries of human habitation in London, washing down from cemeteries and burial grounds in the drainage area that leads into the Thames, which the Walbrook empties into. Cities like Kyoto may exude a kind of exotic antiquity, but London is far older than the ancient Japanese capital — by some seven centuries. And you can actually see skeletal remains right by the river. If you walk to Queenhithe, about 10 minutes from my workplace, you’ll find what used to be a dock first built in the 9th century. Right where the Thames washes up is a pile of debris, driftwood, clam and oyster shells but also scapula and thigh bones. These are not human but evidence of the oxen and sheep slaughtered and served in the city, particularly during the Tudor era (and Henry VIII’s huge feasts in his upriver palaces).The Thames by central London isn’t as broad as the East River or the Hudson River are in New York City. But the British capital and its defining waterway have so many layers of history and emotion attached to each other. On Sept. 22, it was Thames Day here (coinciding with World Rivers Day) and the city marked it with a gorgeous set of prize-winning photographs along the water. Wander by if you’re in the city and by the river. Adrian Wooldridge UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s talent for gaffes at his Labour Party conference. I’m still processing it...Notes: Please send dressing and feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at . and follow us on , , and .
