中国政府近期在担忧经济增长放缓后终于跨出了关键一步。金石士（Goldman Sachs）将这一举动形容为触及“痛苦门槛”。本周政策制定者实施了一系列措施：下调利率、推出股市稳定基金以及银行再资本化计划，显然旨在确保2024年5%的经济增长目标得以实现。
解决困难的第一步便是承认问题的存在。党务委员会周四召开会议后发表声明，明确指出了面临的新挑战和问题。其中最关键的一点是承诺房地产市场“止跌稳价”。正如《华尔街日报》经济分析师大卫·昆（David Qu）与埃里克·朱（Eric Zhu）所指出的，“提出宏大计划是另一回事，将有效措施付诸实践才更为重要。”他们认为，在增长前景上存在向好的风险，但也将评估政策的实际实施情况。换言之，并不能确定本周采取的举措能否持续。
中国房地产市场的寒冬已持续四年。这一长期困境影响了消费者信心和国内消费，要想实现真正的复苏并不容易。最新数据揭示出，在过去至少两年里，无论是中央政府还是地方政府发布的一系列声明，都未能有效遏制房产市场下滑的趋势。今年8月与去年同期相比，顶级百强开发商的新房销售额骤降近27%。这一数字去年8月份为34%，而2022年8月则下降了33%。
房地产价格持续下跌，且情况并未改善。在过去的快速经济增长期，房产价格上涨迅速，导致家庭财富显著积累，而如今的下滑无疑影响着人们对于经济的信心和预期。
值得强调的是，当前的房地产危机是由政策制定者一手造成的。始于2020年的“三道红线”（债务、资产、杠杆）制度旨在控制开发商的借贷规模，既是为了抑制不断上升的价格，也是为了应对金融稳定性风险。这些公司过去依赖高杠杆率收购大量土地，并在未完成建设前预售房产，用销售所得支付建设成本。
然而，在获得新融资渠道受限后，整个系统陷入了崩溃状态。“我不知道世界是否见过如此由内生制造的房地产崩盘。”Eurizon SLJ Capital首席执行官斯蒂芬·詹（Stephen Jen）本周在其给客户的一份报告中写道，“其他所有房地产市场的调整都是被动发生的。”
此前的应对措施多为地方政府采取，包括设立融资机制以鼓励其购买滞销房产，并尝试将某些建筑物转化为“空置住宅”。这一模式在新加坡较小范围内行之有效。然而，面临的问题是当地官员仍旧背负着债务压力——部分原因是为COVID-19防控基础设施支付了高额成本；同时，房地产市场的低迷导致收入减少，而他们过去依赖房地产交易作为主要收入来源。
此外，参与救市计划的成本对普遍预期房价将进一步下跌的市场参与者来说并不具有吸引力。五月份时，中国中央政府呼吁超过200个城市购买未售房产以缓解供过于求的局面，但这一倡议并未引发太大反响。当习近平总书记确立了某项议程作为优先考虑事项后，在单党制国家中往往会立即采取行动。
中国政府本周在政治局会议上强调了稳定经济的重要性，并承诺将实施关键的救市政策。“从高层角度转变看法极为重要，房地产市场迫切需要来自顶层的实际措施来弥补自造成的损失。”斯蒂芬·詹说。一些开发商已对此作出了响应，承诺如果房价在未来从签约到交付期间下跌，则会保证购房者权益。
不过，大多数经济学家在未明确政府愿意提供何种财政资源之前，并不会急于调整对经济增长的预测。市场猜测可能面临高达2850亿美元的资金注入。但值得注意的是，今年预算支出出现了收缩（据《金融时报》报道）。Natixis SA亚洲及太平洋首席经济师阿莉西亚·加拉尔多赫罗瑞（Alicia Garcia Herrero）估计，中国可能需要释放超过3万亿元才能填补缺口。
除了应对房地产危机之外，中国政府还需在附加值制造业上寻求增长点，而避免过度依赖服务行业。只有这样，才能为就业和收入提供持续的支撑。
长期来看，“前景仍然严峻——结构性因素将继续施加显著的压力。”大卫·昆与埃里克·朱（Eric Zhu）在《华尔街日报》的分析中写道。实现稳定的经济增长将面临重重挑战。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Bloomberg New Economy: China Cries Uncle With Big Pledge on Property Crisis
新闻日期：2024-09-28
原文摘要：
China’s leadership, after showing concern about the nation’s sluggish growth in recent months, finally reached what Goldman Sachs termed its “pain threshold.”With a raft of interest-rate cuts, a new facility to prop up the stock market and a plan to recapitalize banks, policymakers this week decisively shifted gears in an apparent effort to ensure the government’s 2024 growth target of about 5% is reached. The first step to solving a problem, as the adage goes, is to . And the official statement following the Communist Party Politburo gathering on Thursday acknowledged “new issues and problems.” Arguably the most important part of the announcement was a pledge to get the real estate market “to stop declining and stabilize.”“It’s one thing to lay out plans in bold statements, and another to put effective measures into action,” David Qu and Eric Zhu at Bloomberg Economics cautioned. “There’s clear upside risk” to the growth outlook, but the duo said that “we’ll assess the policies as they are implemented.” In other words, it’s not certain that the this week will be sustained.China’s —now in its fourth year—has weighed on consumer confidence and hurt domestic spending, so a real bailout would be a game-changer. The latest set of data showcased that, despite many announcements by both Beijing and local governments stretching back at least two years, housing remains mired in an epic slump.The value of new-home sales by the top 100 developers tumbled almost 27% in August from a year before. Last August, they were down about 34%. In August 2022, sales slumped 33% year-on-year. In other words, the market has been cratering for some time now.Perhaps as important, prices continue to decline, and the . That’s after a powerful upsurge in prices during China’s period of rapid economic growth. Falling property values undermine household confidence, particularly against a backdrop where real estate makes up a notable share of wealth.The irony is, China’s property crisis was one that policymakers manufactured. It began in 2020, when regulators set limits—dubbed —for developers seeking to borrow more. The intention was in part to contain prices that were becoming increasingly unaffordable, and in part to address financial-stability risks.Property companies had relied on leverage to scoop up large land banks that they would then develop. Practice was to sell housing units prior to finishing them, with the revenue paying for the construction. Once access to fresh borrowing dried up, the system broke down.“I don’t know if the world has ever seen such a self-induced property implosion,” Stephen Jen, chief executive of Eurizon SLJ Capital, wrote in a note to clients this week. “All of the other cases of property corrections were involuntary.”Officials’ actions up to now have relied on local governments taking action. Measures included setting up funding mechanisms to encourage them to buy unsold properties, potentially turning some buildings into —a system that’s worked well on a small scale in Singapore.But the trouble has been local authorities remain , having running up debts in part to pay for a draconian Covid containment infrastructure. They’ve also seen a decline in revenue due to the property slump, after having long relied on sales of .To top it off, the economics of participating in bailout schemes were a hard sell amid widespread expectation of further price declines. In May, China’s central government urged more than 200 cities to buy unsold homes to ease oversupply. By earlier this month, the call.But once President Xi Jinping has declared something a priority, that tends to mobilize things in China’s single-party state. Xi oversaw the Communist Party Politburo meeting this week that unveiled the primacy of shoring up the economy.“A change in the view from the very top is important. The housing market desperately needs more actions from the top to undo the self-inflicted damage,” Jen said.Some developers already are jumping on the , pledging to make homebuyers whole should prices fall between contract signing and property delivery dates.But most economists aren’t yet rushing to rewrite their economic growth forecasts until it’s clear what sort of fiscal resources Beijing is prepared to deploy.Market speculation has centered on the potential for a ($285 billion) injection. But one thing to keep in mind is the context of a contraction in budget spending (as noted in ) so far this year. Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis SA, estimated China may need to unleash over 3 trillion yuan just to fill .Beyond addressing China’s property crisis, there remains a on value-added manufacturing rather than the services sector that could do most to provide jobs and income.The longer-term picture “still looks the same— ” Qu and Zhu at Bloomberg Economics wrote. “Structural forces will keep considerable downward pressure on growth.”
