中国股市在历史上经历了多次波动，但当前这轮高涨的热情已经让投资者摒弃了谨慎，义无反顾地投身其中。CSI 300指数刚在过去的一周创下了自2008年11月以来的最佳表现，这背后是因为央行和政治局推出了一系列刺激政策与财政举措，旨在提振支出。而高盛集团则表示，“这次不一样”，这一观点增强了人们对本轮上涨将更持久的信心，摩根士丹利还预期未来仍有高达10%的上行空间。
然而，这种乐观能够持续多久的关键在于后续政策的规模和速度。如果在“黄金周”假期期间消费增长乏力，则可能会重新引发对消费者信心疲软和长期存在的房产危机的关注，这两个问题已将中国推向通缩风险的边缘。新加坡Straits Investment Management的CEO提到：“政治局的公告反映出前欧洲央行行长Mario Draghi在2012年债务危机中所作‘不惜一切代价’誓言的精神，强调了支持经济的决心。”“这次中国的股市上涨十分强劲。”
近期实施的各项措施包括降低利率、解除对银行流动性限制、向股市注入数十亿美元的流动性支持以及承诺遏制房价下跌。这轮广泛的政策组合已使得CSI 300指数在过去一周上涨15.7%，将内地市场基准指标带入了年度正增长状态。而香港中国企业指数则实现了连续11个交易日的上涨，这一纪录上次出现还是在2018年。
此次调查中，有8位受访者认为这可能标志着长期反弹的转折点，另有4人将其视为短期反弹现象。乐观派选择科技股作为投资首选，相比之下，市场之前更多关注的是防御型股票。这种转变令人惊讶，此前在月初时，随着房产危机加深、消费疲软以及地缘政治因素的影响加剧，股市一度下跌至五年的低点。
如今，经济学家们对实现约5%的全年经济增长目标更加抱有信心，并看到了伴随利率下调的更大财政刺激措施的可能性。Lombard Odier Singapore Ltd的高级宏观策略师指出：“政治局沟通及其市场积极回应表明当局已在通过强烈的前瞻指导和房地产部门救助计划，应对中国股市看空者的挑战。”尽管对长期基本面仍存担忧，但那些押注更多财政举措的人在继续投资的同时也保持谨慎。
对于经历过多次假希望的投资者来说，谨慎的态度仍然不容忽视。当前这轮上涨与去年年底时中国放宽“零新冠政策”所带来的股市反弹有些相似：当时CSI 300指数一度接近进入牛市，但最终又再度下跌。今年2月到5月期间，在北京加强对做空和量化交易的控制以及国家基金积极干预的背景下，股市出现了超过15%的涨幅，随后由于盈利未能恢复而开始再次下滑。
从更深层次的角度来看，投资者依然对大幅增加对中国资产的敞口持谨慎态度，考虑到中国政府多年以来对私营部门的打压及其与西方的紧张关系已经改变了他们对中国投资吸引力的看法。新加坡Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund主席指出：“关键风险在于政策继续阻碍大型企业家投入和增长企业。”“重要的是要鼓励创新和私人投资。”
然而对于渴望挽回多年亏损的投资者来说，这是追逐收益的最佳时机。“对交易者而言，现在不是问结构性还是技术性的时候了。”Grow Investment Group的首席经济学家说道，“这是一次易于交易的反弹，并将不仅限于中国的市场，而是引发全球风险偏好的回升。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Stock Euphoria Takes Hold as Traders Overlook Deeper Woes
新闻日期：2024-09-28
原文摘要：
Chinese stock bulls have been burnt many times before but the current wave of euphoria is so strong that they’re throwing caution to the wind. The CSI 300 has just capped its best week since November 2008, thanks to a barrage of monetary stimulus and from the Politburo to boost fiscal spending. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “this time is different,” lending support to an emerging view that the rally may prove more sustainable. Morgan Stanley another 10% upside. Yet how long this confidence will last hinges a lot on the scale and speed of follow-up policy action. Any weakness in spending during the Golden Week holiday may also shift focus back to China’s consumer malaise and an entrenched property crisis that has pushed the country to the cusp of a deflationary spiral. “The recent announcements from the Politburo echo the sentiment of Mario Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ speech a decade ago, underscoring a strong resolve to support the economy,” said , chief executive officer at Straits Investment Management in Singapore, referring to the former European Central Bank president’s pledge to preserve the common currency during the 2012 debt crisis. “This China rally is very strong.” Measures released this week include interest rate , freeing-up of cash for banks, billions of dollars of liquidity support for the stock market, and a vow to end the decline in property prices. The sweeping package has pushed the CSI 300 up by 15.7% this week, putting the benchmark for mainland shares firmly in positive territory for the year. The Hang Seng China Enterprises rose for an 11th straight session, a run of gains that was last seen in 2018. Eight of 12 investors in a Bloomberg survey this week said this will be a turning point for a long-term rally, while four saw it as a short-term rebound. The optimists picked tech shares as a top bet, compared to the market’s earlier preference for more defensive stocks. It’s a remarkable shift from earlier this month, when stocks to more than a five-year low amid a deepening property slump, weak consumption and geopolitical headwinds. Economists are now more hopeful that China can reach the growth target of about 5% expansion for the year, and see chances of a larger fiscal stimulus to accompany interest-rate cuts. Read more: “The Politburo communication and market’s positive response to it suggest that the authorities have seized the initiative against China bears through rather forceful forward guidance on fiscal policy and real estate sector rescue,” said , senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore Ltd. Investors betting on more fiscal measures will be buying even if they remain anxious about long-term fundamentals, he added. But for those who’ve experienced multiple false dawns, there are plenty of reasons to be cautious. The current rally is akin to that seen when China its Covid Zero policy in late 2022. Back then, the CSI 300 rose to the brink of a bull market before collapsing again. Shares rallied more than 15% from February to May this year as Beijing tightened the screws on short selling and quant trades and state funds actively intervened, before resuming their slide as earnings failed to recover. More fundamentally, investors remain wary of increasing exposure materially after China’s yearslong crackdown on the private sector and tensions with the West altered their perception of the country’s investability. “The key risk is a continuation of policies which discourage large entrepreneurs from investing and growing their companies,” said , chairman of Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund. “It is important for there to be encouragement of innovation and private investment.”But for those hungry to recoup years of losses, this is the moment to chase gains. “For a trader now is not the time to ask whether it is structural or technical,” said , chief economist for Grow Investment Group. “This is a very easily tradable rebound and will lead to not only China but a global risk-on rally.”
