在过去的五个交易日里，对于邵启峰来说，中国股市的狂热是他 15 年来投资生涯中的第一次经历。作为英安资产管理公司的首席投资官，他在中国的微信群中连续收到了客户的询问，他们想了解是否是购买股票的最佳时机。这反映出，在上周政府公布了一系列提振措施后，市场关注度提升。“我认为，这是牛市第二阶段的开始，股价吸引了广泛的关注。”邵启峰表示，“表面上我很平静，但在内心深处，我感到兴奋。”
许多中国股市投资者的经历与中国股票市场的疯狂相似。中国的基准股指周一上涨了8%，为2008年以来的最大涨幅，预示着一场潜在的牛市。在长假前的一波涌入市场热潮下，成交量达到了历史新高。据当地媒体报道，这一兴趣如此之浓烈，以至于经纪应用程序崩溃，开户需求激增。
最新的推动力来自中国三大城市放宽购房政策以及央行降低房贷利率的措施。这些都是上周一出台全面刺激计划的一部分，该计划包括减息、向银行释放更多资金以及股市流动性支持。同时，美国上市的中国概念股金龙指数大幅上涨了4.7%。
虽然中国股票市场在近年来经历多次假阳线之后，这次似乎有可能出现不同的结果。中国政府展现出的决心让人们相信，他们有能力实现今年约5%的经济增长目标。高涨的零售兴趣甚至促使一些基金设立购买上限。例如，北京九阳润泉资本管理有限公司将投资者投资的上限设为100万元人民币。
在大摩证券负责中国股票策略的负责人则持有保留态度，她表示许多客户在几天的强劲增长后询问是否应该获利了结。“追赶上涨行情或者调整仓位真的很困难。这是一个令人兴奋的时期，但也是对众多投资者充满挑战、痛苦的时期。”她说。
人们对于错失良机的恐惧感显著增强。通常被视为市场情绪指标的经纪公司周一领涨，其中许多公司的涨幅超过两位数。中国房地产开发商指数的BI指标上涨了15.7%。对冲基金则在押注美国科技股和买入矿业、材料型企业上增加了头寸。
与此同时，投资者预测中国的努力缓解房地产业问题将提高全球最大的钢铁原材料消费国的需求，铁矿石价格大幅上涨约11%。
转向风险资产的动向促使中国十年期主权债券周一下跌，这是自十年前以来的最大单周跌幅。沪深300指数的恐慌与贪婪指标升至2015年以来的最高水平。“这是中国股市历史上的一个里程碑时刻。” Grow Investment Group首席经济学家表示，“这可能是我30年研究中国市场中最幸福的日子。”
一些人警告要保持冷静，以防重蹈以往追逐中国股市上涨行情的覆辙：“在忙着大快朵颐这次政策盛宴后，我对再次出现之前令人失望的局面感到忧虑。”IG Markets Ltd.分析师说道。“现在还难以判断这场‘黄金周急升’是否会演变成真正的淘金热，还是只是又一个幻影。”
在此背景下，中国股市继续维持高度的参与度和波动性。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：FOMO Grips China Stock Buyers on ‘Epic’ Trading Day Before Break
新闻日期：2024-09-30
原文摘要：
For Shao Qifeng, the frenzy in Chinese stock trading in the last five sessions was a first in his 15-year market career. The Beijing-based chief investment officer at Ying An Asset Management Co. has been receiving non-stop client inquiries in his WeChat groups asking whether this is the time to buy stocks, after authorities unveiled a last week. “I think this means we are in the second phase of a bull market, when stocks are getting wide attention,” Shao said. “On the surface, I’m keeping my cool, but deep down in my heart I’m celebrating.”Shao’s experience was shared by many stock investors in China where the benchmark posted the biggest gain since 2008 on Monday, a bull market. The rush into the market before a weeklong holiday has also sent trading turnover to a record high. The interest was so intense that broker applications collapsed and requests for opening trading accounts surged, according to local media. The latest leap came after three of China’s largest cities rules for homebuyers, while the central bank also moved to mortgage rates. The measures were among the key elements of a sweeping stimulus released last Tuesday that also included interest rate cuts, freeing-up of cash for banks, as well as liquidity support for stocks. Meanwhile, the Golden Dragon index of US-listed Chinese stocks rallied 4.7%. While Chinese stocks have produced multiple false dawns in recent years, there appears to be growing conviction that this time may be different given the sense of that authorities have shown to achieve their ambitious economic growth target of around 5% this year. The surging retail interest has even prompted some funds to impose a cap on how much people can buy. Beijing Jiuyang Runquan Capital Management, for example, set a one-million-yuan ($142,603) limit on fund subscriptions for investors.For , chief China equity strategist at BofA Securities, caution still lingers with many of her clients asking whether it’s time to take profit after a few days of strong gains. “It’s really hard to either chase the rally or adjust positions. It’s a very exciting time, but it is also a very difficult, challenging, painful time for many investors,” she said. So far, the fear of missing out is palpable. Brokerages, typically seen as a barometer for market sentiment, led gains Monday with many posting double-digit jump. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese property developers rose as much as 15.7%. Hedge funds are US technology stocks and piling into mining and materials firms. Meanwhile, iron ore about 11% as investors bet that China’s efforts to ease property woes will improve demand from the world’s top consumer of the steel-making ingredient.The pivot towards risk assets has sent the country’s ten-year sovereign bonds Monday, extending their biggest weekly drop in a decade. The Fear and Greed Indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index, which measures the buying and selling momentum for the stock benchmark popular among China’s retail investors, rose to the highest since 2015 on Monday.“This is an epic day in the Chinese market history,” said , chief economist at Grow Investment Group. “This is one of the happiest days” of his 30 years covering the Chinese market, he added.Some are urging cooler heads, after being burned chasing past rallies in Chinese stocks.“I must confess, after busily gobbling on this week-long policy banquet, my concern about a potential replay of the previous disappointing cycle lingers,” said , an analyst at IG Markets Ltd. “It’s still too early to tell if this ‘Golden-Week rush’ will blossom into a true gold rush or fizzle out into another mirage.”
