9月中国经济数据表明，工厂产出持续萎缩，服务业部门增长放缓，这是政策制定者准备出台紧急措施以提振面临全方位挑战经济的前奏。国家统计局发布的数据显示，官方制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）录得49.8，意味着自2023年4月以来，该行业已连续三个季度处于收缩状态。
非官方服务PMI指标跌至近21个月新低点，显示建筑和服务业活动动力减弱，接近萎缩边缘。这一系列数据周一由国家统计局公布后，尽管中国经济增长面临的压力重重，但股市仍延续了上涨趋势。本周中国的主要股票指数（沪深300）涨幅达8.5%，创2008年以来最大增幅；而追踪中国房地产开发商的指数甚至飙升15.7%。
中国政府债券市场出现了下跌趋势，尤其在长期政府债券上更为明显，投资者对风险资产的信心提振了经济复苏预期。此举标志着政策刺激措施将为经济增长提供助力。在北京努力提振第二季度世界第二大经济体增长的背景下，股市反弹成为最新数据带来的正面反馈之一。
尽管中国央行上周放宽了贷款管制，并释放银行系统的流动性以增加信贷投放，但市场表现并未受到最新令人失望的数据影响。相反，投资者对北京正在采取的一系列政策组合措施寄予厚望——既包括降低房贷负担、鼓励消费的政策，也包括旨在稳定房地产市场的举措。
在国家统计局数据发布后不到一周的时间内，中国经济将进入为期一周的国庆长假。假期期间的消费活动提供了初步迹象显示，此前推出的增长刺激政策对国内经济的实际影响。中国10年期国债收益率出现下降趋势，市场情绪进一步向风险资产转移表明，投资者期待这些刺激措施能提振整体经济增长。
国家统计局的数据显示，服务业PMI在9月份首次收缩，原因是夏季旅游旺季结束以及部分地区极端天气导致交通运输、文化、体育和娱乐行业产出下滑。这反映出中国经济增长面临的季节性因素变化及不确定性的双重压力。
尽管如此，官方数据依然显示中国制造业活动自2023年4月以来一直处于萎缩状态，表明经济增长仍面临下行风险。政策制定者正通过采取增加政府投资、刺激消费需求等措施来应对当前经济形势的挑战。其中，房地产行业作为中国经济的重要支柱之一，在近期被给予了特别关注和政策支持。
目前，中央银行已允许房贷持有人与其贷款银行协商调整还款条件，自2023年11月1日起生效。这一举措旨在减轻家庭财务负担，并有可能刺激消费增长。
在地方政府、金融机构以及其他私营部门的支持下，中国政府正采取行动促进经济增长并达成年度增长目标。面对经济放缓的压力，政策制定者正加速执行既定政策以确保稳定复苏。
虽然8月份数据显示经济增长动力依然不足，但政治局在周日的会议上强调了加强财政支出的重要性，并承诺通过各种措施为私营企业提供帮助和减轻其面临的困境。这反映出中国政府正在综合运用多种手段，力求实现约5%的经济增长目标。市场反应显示，在一系列政策刺激措施的支持下，投资者对中国经济未来的复苏前景持乐观态度。
整体而言，虽然面对国内外挑战，中国经济发展仍面临不确定性，但政策制定者展现出积极应对的姿态，并通过实施一系列针对性举措努力提振市场信心和促进经济稳定增长。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Weak Factory Activity Shows Urgency of Stimulus Push
新闻日期：2024-09-30
原文摘要：
China’s factory activity continued to contract while the services sector slowed in September, as policymakers prepared an emergency to revive an economy facing challenges across the board.The official was 49.8, meaning the sector has now been in contraction since April 2023, bar three months. The fell to the lowest in 21 months, showing construction and services activity lost momentum and moved to the verge of shrinking.The data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, shows the economy remained in a slump before Chinese officials announced a broad package of measures aimed at reviving growth. The central bank last week and freed up cash for banks to boost lending, while the elite Politburo to support fiscal spending and stabilize the beleaguered property sector.Traders shrugged off the latest dismal data readings, as Beijing’s multi-pronged plan to lift sentiment in the world’s No. 2 economy continued to fuel a rally in stocks. The benchmark Index jumped 8.5% Monday, the most since 2008, while a Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese property developers rose as much as 15.7%.The country’s 10-year sovereign bonds fell, extending their biggest weekly drop in a decade, as investors pivoted toward risk assets on expectations the stimulus efforts will aid growth.“I don’t think September macro data points are going to matter this time for markets,” said , director of investment at abrdn Asia Ltd. “It’s all forward looking about what kind of fiscal stimulus comes out.”The spotlight is now on what measures the Ministry of Finance might unleash, as officials from other arms of China’s economic universe implement measures to boost the property market and rate cuts. The 24-man Politburo led by President vowed at a meeting last week to boost fiscal spending, although it offered no specifics. Reuters reported the Ministry of Finance is planning to issue 2 trillion yuan ($285 billion) worth of special sovereign bonds this year, with half devoted to boosting consumption.If Beijing needed more reason to under its post-pandemic slowdown, the Caixin PMI survey in September showed the country’s unexpectedly fell into contraction while expansion weakened to the slowest in a year. That private gauge has typically painted a rosier picture of the economy.“The PMIs suggest that the economy is still weak but there will be more focus on the impact of the strong stimulus measures announced over the past week,” said , economist at the United Overseas Bank. “The monetary and fiscal policy mix should prevent the economy from further weakening in the near-term.”The latest data offered a final snapshot of the economy before the nation of 1.4 billion people enters a weeklong National Day holiday. Spending over this period starting Tuesday will offer an early glimpse of the effects of Beijing’s efforts to boost , which clocked its weakest reading last month since November 2022.“The lack of effective domestic demand is a serious problem, and the pressure on employment and weak expectations have constrained consumers’ ability and willingness to spend,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist of Caixin Intelligence Group.The official services sector PMI shows activity contracted for the first time this year, with transportation, culture, sports and entertainment shrinking due to the end of the summer travel season and extreme weather in parts of China, according to the NBS.While the Ministry of Finance has yet to make an official announcement, other monetary and economic authorities have begun to flesh out their part of the stimulus package over the last few days. The People’s Bank of China on Sunday said homeowners will be able to renegotiate terms with their current lenders, a move that would reduce their mortgage burdens and potentially boost household spending, starting Nov .1.The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s economic planning agency, on Friday pledged full support to help private companies overcome difficulties during a meeting with executives from firms such as and .And at a State Council meeting on Sunday, Premier said government agencies will accelerate the pace of implementing policies as they strive to meet annual goals, state broadcaster CCTV reported. Beijing’s ability to reach its target of around 5% GDP growth was increasingly in doubt after data showed activity in August.“The State Council responds to the Politburo, which demands increased government investment,” said , chief economist for greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, who expects the Chinese economy to grow 4.9% this year. “The keyword here is ‘execution.’”
