第二季度，中国企业将境外资产增加约71亿美元，这标志着与去年相比增加了超过80%，创自1998年有记录以来的新高。这些投资主要由中国的电动汽车、太阳能等行业引领，中国在这些领域具有竞争力。
此类投资可能会缓和针对北京出口政策的批评声音。中国企业的这种对外投资有助于创造外国市场的就业机会和经济增长，而不是单纯通过激增的出口压垮当地生产商，从而缓解与贸易伙伴之间的紧张关系。
然而，一些经济学家对这部分海外投资的真实性提出了质疑。Rhodium Group发布的最新数据显示，在过去几年中实际投入国外的投资可能远低于官方统计数字。SAFE的数据可能因受到金融因素而非实体经济投资驱动而被夸大。Thilo Hanemann 领导的研究团队指出：“在官方对外直接投资流出总额中，超过三分之二来自于留存收益、债务和内部公司转移”。
尽管如此，Rhodium Group的分析表明，近年来中国海外投资有上升的趋势。数据显示，在2022年出现显著反弹后，尽管总规模仍低于2016年的峰值，但近期有增长迹象。投资方向上，投资者更加倾向于绿色项目而非并购活动。
根据Rhodium Group关于中国投资项目的新报告，中国对外直接投资正从发达经济体转向亚洲和新兴市场。去年至2024年期间，越南、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和新加坡等国均接收到了规模过亿的中国资本投入，涉及汽车、房地产以及金属与矿产等多个领域。
此外，过去五年里非洲、拉丁美洲和中东地区也成为了中国资金的重要接受对象。反观之，外国投资者在今年第二季度从中国市场撤资额创新高，SAFE数据显示，这主要是因对中国作为世界第二大经济体前景的悲观情绪导致。直接投资进入中国的平衡支付下降了近150亿美元，这是仅有的两次出现负值之一，6个月内累计降幅约2%。
Oxford Economics分析认为：“在考虑关税、投资限制和美国其他制裁风险后，中国被越来越多视为对新FDI投资者来说过于危险的地区”。美国政策倡议对中国敏感领域的芯片等产业造成了冲击，“外国直接投资的蒸发”显示了其影响。
若这一下降趋势持续至年底，这将是自1990年代初以来首次出现年度净流出。本周中国政府宣布了一项新政，提供了更多资金支持和利率减低措施，虽然此举推动了股市上涨（以沪深300指数为标志），但是否能吸引外资回流仍不确定。
下一季度的数据预计将于11月初发布，届时将更清晰地反映出整体情况变化。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Investment Abroad Surges to Record With $71 Billion Jump
新闻日期：2024-09-30
原文摘要：
China’s overseas investment hit a record high as its companies look to build more factories abroad, potentially helping to ease criticism of Beijing’s export policies.Chinese firms their overseas assets by about $71 billion in the second quarter, according to revised data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Monday. That’s an increase of more than 80% from a year ago and the highest level since records began in 1998.Leading the charge were companies in sectors where China is outpacing competitors, like electric vehicles and solar energy. These investments might help ease trade tensions by creating jobs and economic growth in foreign markets, rather than overwhelming them with exports that could hurt local producers.But some economists have called those flows into question, with a new compiled by Rhodium Group indicating that actual foreign investment has been much lower in recent years. SAFE’s data may be inflated by significant “phantom” capital driven by financial considerations, not real economy investment, said analysts led by Thilo Hanemann.“More than two-thirds of official outbound investment flows were retained earnings, debt, and intra-company transfers,” the analysts wrote in a this month. Even so, there appears to be an upward trend in Chinese overseas investment in recent years, according to Rhodium. The data indicates a substantial recovery since 2022, although total investment remains well below the peak in 2016. Investors are increasingly focusing on greenfield projects rather than mergers and acquisitions, the analysts said.Chinese outbound FDI has been shifting away from advanced economies toward Asia and emerging economies, according to the new on Chinese investment projects from Rhodium. Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore have all seen at least $1 billion in investments last year and in 2024, with Chinese firms investing in automotive, real estate, and metal and mineral assets.Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East have also become more significant recipients of Chinese capital in the past five years, Rhodium said.Meanwhile, foreign investors withdrew a record amount of money from China in the second quarter, with the revised data showing a deeper pullback amid pessimism about the world’s second-largest economy. China’s direct investment in its balance of payments dropped almost $15 billion in the April-June period, data from SAFE showed. That was only the second time this figure has turned negative, and it was down about for the first six months.“China is increasingly seen as too risky a location for new FDI investors given the potential to fall foul of tariffs, investment restrictions, and other US sanctions,” at Oxford Economics said in a report Monday. “The evaporation of FDI into sensitive sectors like semiconductors also points to a strong impact from US policy initiatives aimed at China.”If the decline continues through the year, it would be the first annual net outflow since at least 1990. China announced a last week offering more funding and interest rate cuts. While that has boosted stocks — with the CSI 300 Index a bull market — it’s uncertain if foreign investors will come flocking back. Third-quarter data is due in early November.
