在新兴市场的黄金时代，席卷而来的狂热浪潮推升股市到牛市阶段，这本会在华尔街引发轩然大波。然而，当下这次全球第二大经济体中国的股市回暖却难以在美国交易员的视野中引起强烈反响。这一现象不仅彰显了中国对美国经济推动作用的有限性，也凸显了北京政策制定者有能力解决深层次增长问题的不确定性。
周一市场的动态清晰显示了这种冷漠。尽管中国基准指数飙升超过8%，但标普500指数却在尾盘反弹前略微下滑，最终勉强避免与中国的股市出现最大规模的历史差距，这一差距上一次出现在2008年金融危机期间。过去六天里，在中国股市暴涨26%之际，美国指数仅上涨1%，这表明美国资产市场的投资者更多地是对外部动能持观望态度。
外资对市场反应不一。大量资金涌入补充了投资于中国大型公司、科技股等的美籍上市基金。然而，这一市场的热情复苏仍是局部现象，而非全球性事件。近年来，每当美国科技泡沫推升股市新高时，中国的市场却因庞大的债务负担而苦苦挣扎。
摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）在接受彭博电视台采访时说道：“这是否能实质性地改变美国经济增长的轨迹？答案是‘不’。我们需要看到美国劳动力市场的改善。”
今年美股已压倒亚洲市场，且在新冠疫情之后一直维持这一优势。即便中国的政策试图刺激经济复苏也遇到了持久的疑虑，原因在于政策屡次受挫。尽管如果领导层能实现这一目标，美国将受益多少仍是未知数——因为与许多其他发达经济体相比，美国对贸易增长的依赖程度较低；而墨西哥已超过中国成为美国的最大贸易伙伴。
最近，中美股市之间的估值差异达到了历史高位水平。投资者更加关注国内因素来评估市场前景，包括美国消费者持续的韧性及美联储降息的趋势。与此同时，香港和上海指数在彭博追踪的全球92个基准中占据前两位的位置，表明对中国股市情绪的转变。去年，中国股市排名最差，甚至曾被称为“失意者”。
这次涨幅的推动力来自于短线卖家。他们对市场进行做空操作后被迫买入以限制损失。尽管现在还为时过早，但从其2021年的高点计算至今，沪深300指数仍下跌了约30%。
面对诸多挑战，从房地产危机、通缩到经济增长放缓和青年失业等问题，情况短期内难有缓解。“我们还不确定这些广泛举措是否能拯救困境中的房地产行业，或减轻消费者的压力。”彭博情报的首席股票策略师如此说道，“中国政府近期的举措至今未能提升2024年或2025年新兴市场整体盈利展望。”
与此相对照的是美国股市今年展现出的强劲势头。在人工智能狂热和美联储控制通胀的同时避免经济衰退的背景下，标普500指数已创下超过40次新高记录，并且比疫情前的峰值高出约70%。本月早些时候，标普500指数交易时市盈率达到了25倍，而中国股市的估值仅是其一半。
金士沙集团全球市场与战术专家鲁本（Rubner）写道：“在11月总统选举之前，美股股票收益想要再次上涨可能困难重重。”这或许部分解释了为何美国投资者近期纷纷寻求较便宜的投资风格，尤其是投资中国的ETF基金。面对中国市场的乐观情绪增加，“S&P并不是这个十月的首选”，鲁本周一给客户的一封信中如此写道。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Erupting China Stocks Barely Audible to US Traders in Fed Bubble
新闻日期：2024-09-30
原文摘要：
Back in the emerging-market heyday, the sudden frenzy that has pushed Chinese to a bull run would be big news on Wall Street.Listen to the Here’s Why podcast on , or .Yet this time round, the stock-market revival in the world’s second-biggest economy has barely registered with US traders, underlining both ’s limited role as an engine for America’s economy and that Beijing policy makers will be able to fix deep-seated growth woes.The lack of excitement was palpable in Monday trading. While the jumped more than 8%, the S&P 500 slipped before a late-day bounce helped the gauge avoid a US-China divergence that, by one measure, would have been the largest since the 2008 financial crisis. As the Chinese benchmark surged 26% over six sessions, the American index rose by a relatively meager 1%, underscoring how traders in US assets are largely shrugging off the gambling spirits in Asia.That’s not say foreign investors are sitting on their hands. A slew of have rushed to replenish US-listed funds that ride Chinese large-cap companies, technology shares and more, after a spate of policy-easing measures in the nation, including the relaxing of rules on home buying. Yet the newfound market enthusiasm remains a largely regional affair. And it’s the latest US-China market gulf that’s flared in recent years when Big Tech fever pushed US equities to fresh records, just as China struggled to keep its markets afloat amid a big debt overhang. “Is this going to change the trajectory of growth in the US in a meaningful way? And the answer really is no,” , Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist, said on Bloomberg TV, referring to China’s stimulus. “We need to see the labor market get better in the US.”US stocks have crushed their Asian counterparts again this year – and for most of the post-pandemic era, for that matter – while Beijing’s efforts to jumpstart the economy has been met with persistent doubts after repeated policy failures. And even if the nation’s leaders pull off the feat, how much America will benefit remains an open question given the fact its output is notably less dependent on trade growth than many of its advanced-economy peers, while China was just by Mexico as the top US trading partner.Now with the fetching a near-record valuation premium recently over its Chinese counterparts, investors are turning their focus to domestic factors to determine the outlook, including the continued resilience of American consumers and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-cutting trajectory. Meanwhile Chinese stocks have rallied big time this month with indexes from Hong Kong and Shanghai occupying the spots among 92 benchmarks around the world tracked by Bloomberg. It’s an epic shift in sentiment given the country’s equities were ranked last year among the worst, and once even dubbed “.” Fueling the latest gains were short sellers, who had the market and were forced to buy back shares to limit losses. Still it’s early days yet. When measured from its 2021 high, the CSI 300 remains 30% lower. And the challenges facing the nation — from a property crisis to deflation, slowing growth and rising youth unemployment — aren’t going away soon. “Whether the sweeping moves will rescue the nation’s deeply distressed real estate sector and ease consumer malaise is uncertain,” said , Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief equity strategist. “China’s late-week moves have yet to lift the broader earnings outlook for emerging markets for 2024 or 2025 as analysts and investors gauge the impact.” By contrast, US markets have rallied hard all year, thanks to the S&P 500’s steady march higher amid the frenzy over artificial intelligence, and as the Fed manages to tame inflation without snuffing out growth, at least for now. The index has notched more than 40 record highs this year, sitting 70% above its pre-pandemic peak. And earlier this month, the S&P 500 was traded at 25 times earnings — two times as high as its Chinese counterpart. To , managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., equity gains may be hard to come by in the US until after November’s presidential election. That may well help explain why American investors have sought out cheaper investing styles of late including Chinese ETFs. With fear of missing out increasing in China, the “S&P is not the horse to ride this October,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients Monday.
