在联合国大会纽约会议期间展示洲际弹道导弹，中国的决定并非偶然之举。此举展现了北京的决心与意图：向全世界，特别是向美国明确表明其不断扩大的核力量。据《**》报道，这可能是四十年来中国首次将ICBM投送至国际海域。
美国确认收到了关于9月25日试射的通报，并表示这是件好事，因为能减少误解和误判的风险。“增加透明度”至关重要，以防止超级大国之间的危险误会。此举引发了亚洲地区紧张局势升级的可能性。其他国家为了与中国的核力量相匹配，很可能将提升自己的核武器库存。
据统计，目前全球约90%的核武器集中在俄罗斯和美国手中，而中国正加快其核能力的增长速度，这一速度远超预期。据《**》报道，作为世界第二大经济体，中国的核弹头数量预计将从2023年的410枚增加至今年的500枚。国防部预测，在本世纪中叶前，中国可能将拥有超过1000枚操作中的核武器，与习近平主席提出的到2049年建立世界顶级军事力量的目标一致。
“这是为什么这次通告如此重要。”**新加坡南洋理工大学S. Rajaratnam国际研究学院高级研究员在接受采访时指出，“这表明北京意识到了误判的风险，并可能正在寻找降低风险的方法。”
此次是首次明确将两大核武对手俄罗斯与中国置于对等的对抗美国领导的世界秩序中。中国希望美国确认其政治制度的正当性，以及尊重中国的核心利益。其中包括对台湾这一民主自治岛屿的所有权宣示，以及对中国声称拥有南中国海90%主权的坚持。
国内压力也是重要因素。1月有报道指称负责建立核武库的火箭部队可能存在腐败问题，这在中共内部引起了巨大尴尬。这次导弹试射也是为了向国民传达其确保国家安全的能力，并对领导人合法性的批评做出回应。
历史提供了一些有益的教训以寻求和解之道。在第一次冷战期间，美国与苏联通过共享核灾难的概念（即它们都被对方的核武器威胁暴露于巨大破坏之中），找到了避免核战争的方法。尽管这并非完全等同于当前的情境，但1963年的美俄限制性武器协议，在古巴导弹危机之后创立，可能为未来提供指导。
双方处于擦枪走火边缘时，意识到两大拥有足以造成巨大毁灭的致命武器的超级大国需要一种可靠的信息沟通方式。北京与华盛顿之间也曾建立过类似的通讯渠道，但它们在特别紧张时刻并没有起到预期的作用。去年2月，美国将一枚被怀疑是监视设备的目标物击落，并试图联系中国国防部。北京拒绝了这一尝试，这导致外界认为热线“失效”。其功能对于避免双方都不愿看到的后果至关重要。
恢复对话并使之更加定期化也是一个积极信号，这些对话应该继续进行。中美的关系必须从相互猜疑走向共同的全球责任。对于北京而言，美国是唯一在敌对和竞争国家部署核武器的国家这一事实至关重要。对于华盛顿来说，中国试图提升核能力而未表现出相应透明度的举动令人怀疑其意图不善。双方都应承认对方对其有感知差距。
对美国而言，认识到习近平主席的利益所在，并解决中国的不安感也是有益之举。这并不意味着忽视其显而易见的核力量发展目标或对台湾海峡、南海活动的强势表现的让步。如果中国希望被视为南半球真正的领导者，它应该阐明自己的目标，在追求更稳定的核关系的同时保障地区的安全。
否则，在印太地区未来的冲突上将笼罩着原子阴影。台当局对此尤为警惕：在周日，岛国防务部报告称因注意到“多波导弹发射”而保持警戒状态，这一情况发生在内陆深处的中国。
仅依赖北京的弱点来解决问题还远不够。清楚的发展方向是明确的，为更加核武化的大亚洲做准备比希望问题消失更明智。否则，可能面临无法想象的后果，我们不应等待那一刻的到来。
更多来自 Bloomberg Opinion 的观点：**。或者您可以订阅 ** 来获取更多内容。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：US-China Tensions: Beijing Missile Test Casts a Nuclear Shadow
新闻日期：2024-09-30
原文摘要：
China’s decision to an intercontinental ballistic missile as global leaders at the United Nations General Assembly in New York was no coincidence. Beijing was showing off: It wants the world, and in particular Washington, to know about its growing atomic power. This is believed to be the first time in four decades that China has an ICBM into international waters. In this instance, the Ministry of National Defense informed “relevant countries,” according to a report in . The US confirmed it had received of the Sept. 25 test, with Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh saying it was “a good thing” because it “reduces the risks of any misperception and miscalculation.” Continuing with advanced notifications will be critical to preventing dangerous misunderstandings between the superpowers.Asia has become more dangerous with this missile launch. Countries will likely boost their nuclear arsenals to keep up with China. While Russia and the US hold 90% of the globe’s nuclear weapons, Beijing is ramping up its capacity than predicted. According to the , the arsenal of the world’s second-largest economy’s from 410 warheads in 2023, to 500 this year. The US Defense Department that by the end of this decade, China will probably have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads, in line with President Xi Jinping’s goal of a “world class” military by 2049. That’s why the alert was so important, , senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, told me. “It shows that Beijing is aware of the potential for miscalculation, and may be seeking ways to reduce risks.” For the first time, Washington two major nuclear-armed rivals — Russia and China — that are united in their mutual antagonism of the American-led global order. The Chinese want the US to the legitimacy of their political system, and respect their core interests. Among those are red lines on , the democratic self-ruled island that China claims as its own, and Beijing’s assertions that it owns almost of the South China Sea.There are domestic pressures as well. Reports in January that China’s Rocket Force, for building up the nuclear arsenal, was with corruption, were hugely embarrassing for the Chinese Communist Party. This test was also about signaling to citizens its ability to keep the nation safe, and dispelling criticism about leadership and legitimacy. History provides some useful lessons for an off-ramp. During the first Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union the concept of — the idea that they were both exposed to the immense damage the other’s atomic weapons could inflict — as a way to avoid a nuclear war.It is not an exact parallel, but the 1963 US-Russian , created after the in 1962, could be a useful guide. Both the brink of a nuclear strike, but there was a recognition that when two great powers have deadly weapons capable of immense devastation, they needed a reliable way to communicate. A similar arrangement between Beijing and Washington was set up , but it hasn’t worked so well, even in particularly fraught moments. In February last year, the US shot down an alleged that it believed was a surveillance device, and subsequently tried to contact the Chinese defense ministry. Beijing declined. That’s led to accusations the hotline is “.” Its is critical to avoid outcomes that neither side wants. Restarting talks is also a good sign. Those should continue and become more regular. The relationship has to move from mutual mistrust to one of shared global responsibility. For Beijing, the fact that the US is the only country to nuclear weapons on an enemy and rival, is top of mind. For Washington, China’s lack of in its attempts to its nuclear prowess is suspicious, and speaks of ill-intent. Both sides should admit they have perception gaps about the other. For the US, recognizing what matters to Xi and addressing China’s insecurities would also help. This is not to gloss over its visible goals of nuclear advancement, or to capitulate to Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. If China wants to be seen as a true leader in the Global South, it should explain what its aims are, with a view to getting toward a more stable nuclear relationship, and keeping the region safer.Otherwise an atomic shadow will hang over any future conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Taipei has of precisely that: On Sunday, the island’s defense ministry said it was on “alert” after noting “multiple waves” of missile firing deep in inland China. Washington can take heart that even as Beijing modernizes, it is still nowhere near the US’s capabilities — yet. that the People’s Liberation Army’s most advanced nuclear attack submarine is believed to have sunk earlier this year while sitting at a pier in the city of Wuhan, emerged shortly after China’s missile launch.Still, it is not enough to simply rely on Beijing’s failings. The direction of travel is clear. Preparing for a more heavily nuclear-armed Asia is wiser than hoping the problem will go away. The alternative would be to face unthinkable consequences. We shouldn’t wait for that. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
