在大多数西方观察者看来，中国科技行业的势头似乎正在衰退。自顶峰至2023年期间，初创企业的数量大幅下滑，在此之后，今年预计还会进一步减少。像阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司和腾讯控股有限公司这样的大型科技公司市值缩水数以百亿美元计，远远不及美国同行。有迹象显示，随着政策制定者的明确表态，该行业复苏的可能性微乎其微，即使在疫情后复苏的背景下亦是如此。昔日创业富豪如今风光不再，曾经备受推崇的现象如今已成过眼云烟。
对于美国政策制定者来说，这种景象不仅提供了一种确认和证据，证明国内科技版图的优势无可争议。然而从他们的视角来看，他们无疑是正确的：习近平主席对可能损害消费者利益和投资者回报的一代创业者施以重创。但这并不意味着中国创新生态系统的发展减速。相反，习近平的措施强化了目标——集中力量提升国家影响力与安全地位，在全球范围内转移权力平衡。北京为科技行业提供了一项硅谷梦寐以求的使命：实现民族统一目标。即便质疑科技创新的动力来自于明确的目标似乎是投资者和自由市场经济资本家轻视的概念。
OpenAI及其联合创始人揭示了这一概念的重要性，正如我的同事帕姆·奥尔森近期所阐述的那样，在美国科技企业家与员工中，长期痴迷于这种理念。对于Z世代来说，“使命驱动”的工作至关重要。OpenAI最初是一个以“为了全人类的利益创建人工智能”为宗旨的非营利研究机构，最终推出了ChatGPT，并引领了全球人工智能热潮。随着它转变为“盈利受限”，并准备成为一个纯利润公司，其创始团队出现了大范围流失。与此同时，许多中国人认为世界在过去五年中变得更具有挑战性，而与华盛顿的紧张关系成为最紧迫的问题之一。
这一来自潜在对手美国的生存威胁成为了中国科技野心的动力源泉。在解散了快速致富时代后，习近平推进了以创新驱动高质量发展的策略以及共同富裕的目标。政府规划了引领战略领域（如人工智能、先进制造和绿色产业如太阳能与电动汽车）的技术未来。这已经在电池、电动车和太阳能面板的出口中获得了回报。目前，在高级技术如AI方面，美国可能领先于中国，但中国正迅速集中资源缩小差距。
最近的一份报告显示，中共坚定决心在这些全球市场上取得主导地位，加速了创新进程的速度远超预期，并且许多中国科技企业将在大约十年内超越或达到西方企业的水平。华盛顿显然意识到北京的科技能力构成了威胁，并通过一系列出口措施阻止中国获取前沿AI芯片和制造设备。但这一政策进一步推动了北京对科技自给自足目标的承诺。
最近，华为的欣创笔记本电脑的拆解揭示了该国在这方面的努力。在这款产品中，绝大多数关键芯片源自中国集团。更近地讲，中国政府要求科技公司与电动汽车制造商购买更多来自国内公司的零件作为支持这个推动计划的一部分，此举为国内半导体企业创造了市场，并也开辟了用于研发和扩张的资金来源。
美国的创新生态系统由创业者驱动，在过去几十年间催生了快速经济成长与消费者福利。然而，当创业企业成为全球最大的公司后，进行实验、创新真正新事物的动力被模糊化。现在不再是不创新就要死的局面，而是不创造股东价值就要被淘汰。这促使硅谷最聪明的人才转向关注短期回报而非突破性进展。产品发布会从令人兴奋的活动变成了旨在提升股价的例行公事。
将国家利益作为激励科技创新手段的做法并非与中国式蓝皮书所描写的美国早期科技革命相差甚远，这一策略在美苏冷战期间的空间竞赛中就发挥了作用，并可能最终为消费者带来双重用途效益。现在对华盛顿来说过早地宣布中国互联网与消费技术领域的溃败并不足以确认这是一场冷战的胜利。
明智的做法是让大学或独立实验室主导旨在实现目标的研究，而不是将美国最雄心勃勃的愿景交给大科技企业的利己主义。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Hasn’t Destroyed the Tech Sector. It’s Sharpened It
新闻日期：2024-10-01
原文摘要：
To most Western observers, it would appear that China has driven its technology industry .The number of startups founded in the country fell by between the peak in 2018 and 2023, with this year on track to be even lower. The market capitalizations of the biggest tech companies, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd., have shrunk to the tune of hundreds of billions, and pale in comparison to US peers. There is no sign that the sector will ever rebound to what it was before a government crackdown that kicked off in late 2020, even as policymakers have signaled it’s over. Becoming a billionaire entrepreneur has become something , rather than celebrated.It’s easy for US policymakers to see this with vindication and yet more evidence of a superior tech landscape at home. And from their vantage point, they are correct: President Xi Jinping strangled a generation of entrepreneurs who could have benefited consumers and made investors a lot of money.But that doesn’t mean China’s innovation ecosystem is slowing. If anything, Xi has only sharpened its goal to focus on national clout and security in a way that could shift the global balance of power.Beijing has given its tech industry something that Silicon Valley can only dream of: a mission. It may be easy for investors and free-market capitalists to scoff at the idea of innovation being driven by a purpose. But as the at OpenAI has laid bare — and as my colleague Parmy Olson has recently — US tech entrepreneurs and workers alike have long been obsessed with this concept. And a vast majority of Gen Z say having a is an important factor for work. OpenAI started as a nonprofit research organization with the goal of creating artificial intelligence that “benefits all of humanity,” and ended up launching ChatGPT, spurring the global AI boom. As it evolved to a “capped-profit” and now is poised to become a for-profit company, it has seen an exodus of much of its founding team. Many Chinese, meanwhile, now believe the world is than it was five years ago, and see tensions with Washington as one of the most pressing concerns. This existential threat of losing to the US is being used as a driving force for China’s tech ambitions. Fresh off dismantling the get-rich-quick era, Xi has on a push for tech-driven “high quality growth” as well as “common prosperity.” The government has laid out a vision for a technological future where China leads in strategic areas such as artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and green industries like solar and electric vehicles. This is already reaping dividends as exports of batteries, electric cars and solar panels .The US may currently have a lead in advanced technologies such as AI, but China is progressing rapidly with a laser-sharp focus to close that gap. New suggests that the Communist Party’s top-down determination to dominate these global markets is driving innovation at a faster pace than thought, and many Chinese tech firms will likely equal or surpass Western companies within roughly a decade. Washington seems acutely aware that Beijing’s tech prowess is posing a threat, and has reacted with a slew of export measures to prevent China from accessing cutting-edge AI chips and manufacturing equipment. But these policies have further spurred Beijing’s commitment to its tech self-sufficiency goals. A recent teardown of Huawei’s Xinchuang laptop shows that the country is making on this front, with most of the important chips in the device coming from Chinese groups.More recently, Beijing has been supporting this push by asking tech firms and electrical vehicle makers to buy more . This has provided a market for domestic semiconductor firms, and also opened sources of revenue that can be used for research and development as well as expansion.The US innovation ecosystem, driven by entrepreneurship, has spurred decades of rapid economic growth and consumer benefits. But after startups became the biggest companies in the world, the incentive to experiment and invent something truly new became obfuscated. It’s no longer innovate or die, but create shareholder value or perish. This has encouraged the brightest minds in Silicon Valley to focus on short-term returns rather than novel breakthroughs. It has turned once-exciting product launch events into . China’s use of national interests as an incentive for innovation isn’t as far off from an all-too-American playbook that predated the US tech revolution. Like the space race during the US-Soviet Union Cold War that , many of these developments may end up having a dual use, providing downstream benefits to consumers. It’s too soon for US policymakers to look at the decimation of China’s internet and consumer tech sectors as signs of victory in this Cold War. Washington would be wise to foster purpose-driven research, whether at universities or independent labs, rather than leave America’s boldest ambitions to the whims of Big Tech interests. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
