美国官员认为中国的最新尝试充当乌克兰争端调解者之举不真诚且力度不足。他们的观点是有道理的：中国持续向俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京提供制造工具和微电子设备等物资，这些正是他增援军事力量并吞并更多乌克兰领土所需要的。
不过，中国在促进结束战争方面发挥更为积极角色的可能性正在增大。北京应当为此做好准备。
在中国与巴西及其他15个国家共同参加的联合国大会边会上提出“六点和平方案”后，中国已积极参与到推动该计划的进程中。然而，乌克兰总统泽连斯基将其称为“半心半意”的尝试，并且警告称这将为莫斯科提供继续战争的空间。目前，乌克兰的所有西方支持者都不认同这一计划。
这个提议只呼吁双方停止升级冲突，俄罗斯得以持续争夺领土。美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯指出，“一个让侵略方得到所有而受害者权利未得保障的和平，并非持久或公正之和解。”的确如此，中国在至少这一点上是诚恳的：其确实在努力防止一场旷日持久的热战爆发。
这场冲突越拖延下去，对北京与欧洲的关系造成的影响就会越大，同时也帮助美国巩固了跨大西洋联盟。如果弗拉基米尔·普京真的兑现威胁，使用核武器应对乌克兰使用西方提供的远程武器打击俄罗斯的情况，那么中国可能将付出更高代价。纯粹的胜利者不会自动成为最好的结果。
中国政府面临的风险是，普京获胜的局面并不符合其长期利益；一旦他们庆祝了羞辱西方之后，北京领导人所面临的严峻地缘政治挑战会依然存在。经济与西方世界的脱钩将继续推进，并且美国会通过升级安全安排和部署更具杀伤力的能力来加紧对中国的军事压力。
主要的变化可能是：普京在面对新的挑战时将更多依赖中国，而不是完全独立于后者。
相反，更理想的局面是达成停战协议，类似于结束朝鲜战争的那种。这种结果将在乌克兰长期消耗大量西方资源；同时俄罗斯维持与中国的合作关系的需求将会使后者成为一个更加可信赖的战略伙伴。
尽管如此，乌克兰自然反对这样的不理想解决方案，因为这会让侵略者占据使用武力夺走的土地。然而，事实上冲突陷入了僵持状态，俄乌双方均难有突破。在东乌克兰取得逐步进展的代价是巨大的——俄罗斯每天伤亡高达1000人，并缺乏实现决定性胜利的能力。
与此同时，对乌克兰的支持正面临欧洲日益增长的反对声音以及美国国内、特朗普追随者们对于战争疲倦的压力。如果特朗普重新掌权并承诺介入和平谈判，北京有可能在未来的会谈中发挥关键作用。
为准备这一时刻，中国应现在开始加强对与欧美进行外交接触的努力，充当俄乌双方间的信使角色，这是其竞争对手印度可能追求的角色之一。
鉴于来自南非、巴西等南半球国家的保护层，北京能够在调整自身立场以缩小与西方差距的同时保持一定的中立形象。接下来，习近平需要决定愿意在多大程度上推动普京作出妥协。中国虽没有足够的影响力迫使俄罗斯接受立即停火或归还自2014年以来占领的领土，但减少对中国军事支持和暗示莫斯科可能不会期望获得更多援助的举动，可能会激励普京结束他看似无法实现决定性胜利的战争。
为使其联合和平提案更具可信度，中巴两国应明确要求双方暂停冲突，并强调最终领土解决应由乌克兰和俄罗斯共同商定。这与中国长期尊重领土完整的原则是一致的，有助于维持其较为平衡、中立的形象。
同时，在等待乌克兰与俄罗斯立场趋近时，习主席可私下明确表明倾向于将冲突冻结。当两国之间的分歧减小时，这方面的推动可能变得更为明显。
当然，这样做可能会让普京感到疏离。然而，鉴于北京对于他持续参与的支持依赖性，真正的裂痕不太可能发生。中国已经为普京的战争付出高昂代价。在结束这场冲突方面承担更大风险是值得考虑的决策。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Should Get Serious About Peace in Ukraine
新闻日期：2024-10-01
原文摘要：
US officials have dismissed China’s latest attempt to play peacemaker in Ukraine as insincere and inadequate. They have a point: China continues to supply the machine tools and microelectronics that allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to replenish his war machine and keep gobbling up Ukrainian territory.But prospects for China to play a more productive role in ending the fighting are growing. Beijing ought to be positioning itself for that moment.On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last week, China and Brazil a meeting attended by 17 nations to promote the six-point “peace plan” they jointly proposed in May. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy it as “half-hearted” and rightly warned that it would “give Moscow the political space to continue the war.” None of Ukraine’s Western supporters support the plan.The proposal calls only for both sides not to escalate the fighting, which would allow Russia to keep battling for territory. “A peace in which the aggressor gets everything that it sought, and the victim does not have its rights upheld, is not a recipe for a lasting peace, and certainly not a just one,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken complained. While that’s certainly correct, China is sincere in at least one thing: its desire to prevent a protracted hot war. The longer the fighting continues, the more damage it inflicts on Beijing’s strained relations with Europe, and the more it helps the US solidify the transatlantic alliance. China could pay an even higher cost if Putin carries out his threat to respond with nuclear weapons if Ukraine uses long-range Western weapons to attack Russia.An outright Putin victory would not necessarily be the best outcome for Beijing either. After they finished toasting Russia’s humiliation of the West, Chinese leaders would confront the same grim geopolitical reality as before.The great economic decoupling with the West will grind on and the US will keep tightening the military screws around China with upgraded security arrangements and deployment of more lethal capabilities. The main change might be that an emboldened Putin finds himself less dependent on Beijing.Far better for China would be an armistice that freezes the conflict, similar to the one that ended the Korean War. Such an outcome would tie down considerable Western resources in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia’s need for continued Chinese support would make it a more dependable strategic partner.While Ukraine understandably opposes such an unsatisfactory resolution, which would leave the aggressor in possession of land seized by force, facts on the ground are pushing toward a long-term stalemate. Russia is paying huge costs for incremental gains in eastern Ukraine — suffering 1,000 casualties a day — and it lacks the capability to achieve a decisive breakthrough. At the same time, Western support for Ukraine is facing growing opposition from the surging in Europe and war-weary followers of Donald Trump in the US.If Trump recaptures the White House and involves himself in ending the war as he’s pledged to do, Beijing could have a critical role to play in negotiations.To prepare, China should be intensifying its diplomatic engagement with Europe and the US now, serving as a messenger between Ukraine’s supporters and Russia (a role that its rival India might otherwise seek to fill). The fact that it has cover from countries in the Global South such as Brazil should allow Beijing to tweak its positions to narrow the gap with Western nations.Next, Xi must decide how far he’s willing to push Putin to strike a deal. China does not have the leverage to pressure Russia to accept an immediate ceasefire or to return land it has occupied since 2014. But limiting Chinese support for the Russian military — and hinting that Moscow should not expect more in future — could encourage Putin to end a war he has no realistic hope of winning decisively.To make their joint peace proposal more credible, China and Brazil should add a more explicit demand for a ceasefire and underscore that a final territorial settlement must be agreed by both Ukraine and Russia. Such a position is in accordance with China’s longstanding principle of respecting territorial integrity and allows it to maintain a more credible appearance of neutrality.In the meantime, Xi should quietly make clear to Putin his preference for freezing the conflict. When the gap between Ukraine and Russia is narrow enough, the nudge can become more explicit.That risks alienating the Russian leader, of course. But given his dependence on Chinese support, a real rift is unlikely. China is already paying a high cost for Putin’s war. It’s worth taking more substantial risks to end it. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
