亿万富翁投资者表示，中国政府近期的市场刺激措施有可能成为世界第二大经济体的关键性转折点。如果北京的决策者能比承诺的多出更多努力，这将对全球经济格局产生深远影响。这一观点源于最近中国股市表现出色，这是自2008年以来最大的反弹，原因在于政府采取了一系列政策组合拳，包括下调利率和允许券商从央行获取资金购买股票等措施。
同时，中国高层也明确表示会支持增加财政支出，并稳定遭受重创的房地产业。在周一的文章中，达里奥（Dalio）将此事与2012年欧元区债务危机期间欧洲中央银行行长德拉吉誓言拯救欧元的情况相比较。德拉吉的讲话最终帮助结束了那场为期数年的欧债危机。“这无疑是一个巨大的转折点”，达里奥如此写道，“事实上，我认为这一变化可能会载入市场经济的历史教科书，前提是北京方面能采取必要的行动，这些行动不仅限于已宣布的内容。”
当前，中国正面临房地产泡沫破裂和地方政府债务积累的挑战。亿万富翁投资者达里奥多次访问中国并与高层领导会面后表示，中国要么陷入与日本类似的经济困境，要么成功削减债务并避免危机。
为实现他所谓的“美丽的去杠杆化”，北京需要对坏账进行重组，并创造更多货币以减轻债务负担而不会导致过多的通胀。通过这样的“再通胀”举措，可以激励风险承担行为，使现金不如其他资产具有吸引力，进而推动市场活力和投资者信心。此时，我们明显看到这些变化正在发生。
达里奥警告称，去杠杆化过程将是一场痛苦的过程，因为它会摧毁财富，并引发关于债务损失成本负担者的政治决策。中国面临的挑战还包括工作年龄人口减少及老龄化加剧等问题。“因此，尽管上周我们见证了重大行动和言论，我确信这将伴随更多刺激政策实施以提供帮助并支持资产价格，但同时我认为还需要关注其他几个关键方面来观察中国政府如何妥善处理国内债务货币经济体系的挑战。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Leaders Face ‘Whatever-It-Takes’ Moment, Ray Dalio Says
新闻日期：2024-10-01
原文摘要：
Billionaire investor says China’s surge of market stimulus will be a historic turning point for the world’s second-largest economy, if policymakers in Beijing deliver “a lot more” than pledged. The comments came after Chinese stocks posted the since 2008 following a policy blitz last week that included lowering interest rates and allowing brokers to tap central bank funding to buy stocks. China’s top leaders have also to support fiscal spending and stabilize the beleaguered property sector. In a on Monday, Dalio drew a parallel between President ’s moves and the moment in 2012 when former European Central Bank President pledged to to preserve the euro. Draghi’s speech eventually helped bring an end to that period’s European debt crisis.“It was a big week,” wrote Dalio, founder of . “In fact, I think that it was such a big week that it could go down in the market-economic history books,” as long as China’s policymakers “do what it takes, which will require a lot more than what was announced.”Beijing is at a crossroad in confronting the bursting of a housing bubble and mounting local government debt, said Dalio, who has frequently visited China to meet senior leaders. The nation could either slip into an economic malaise similar to what Japan experienced in the past, or successfully cut debt and avoid a crisis, the closely followed investor said.To achieve what he calls a “beautiful deleveraging,” Beijing needs to restructure bad debt, while creating more money to reduce the debt service burden without fueling too much inflation. Such “reflation” moves would encourage risk-taking by making cash less attractive than other assets, he said. “Doing these things starts to rekindle ‘bottom fishing’ and ‘animal spirits,’” he wrote. “We are clearly seeing that happen now.”Dalio warned that the deleveraging would be painful because it will destroy wealth and bring about the politically-charged decisions as to who will shoulder the costs of debt losses. A decline in the working-age population and aging demographics compound China’s challenges, he added.“So, while last week we saw great actions and words that I am sure will be followed by highly stimulative policies that will help a lot and will support asset prices, I think that there are several important other things to keep an eye on to see how well China’s domestic debt-money-economy challenges will be handled,” he wrote.
