中国股票在香港市场的交易迎来近两年来的最大单日涨幅，市值达到5.8万亿美元的香港市场由此掀起了投资热潮。这是在政府释放刺激经济举措的影响下产生的结果。
恒生中国企业指数（Hang Seng China Enterprises Index）的最大增幅高达8.5%，最终收涨7.1%，连续第13个交易日上涨。其中，房地产行业领涨，其相关指数猛涨47%，另一些股票更是飙升了35%，创下历史最高记录的涨幅水平。
值得注意的是，在中国大陆市场休市的一周内，香港股市仍旧表现活跃。一名美国老虎证券公司的股票分析师乐观预测：“我认为这波牛市可能持续三个月到半年的时间。”他个人对这一前景非常有信心。
就在上周末，中国宏观经济状况出现显著好转。政府推出了一系列刺激措施包括降息、扩大银行流动性以及股市支持政策等举措。同时，四大一线城市放松了购房限制，央行降低了房贷利率。这些利好措施使投资者对于中国经济的未来充满期待。
但值得注意的是，这次经济提振可能是过去几年房地产危机和经济增长放缓背景下的一次反弹，并不是完全走出困境的标志。近年来的多次反弹之后，市场仍然存在一定的谨慎态度。尽管如此，中国股票目前的估值优势吸引了大量的投资者目光——恒生中国企业指数市盈率仅9倍左右，而标普500指数则接近2倍。
其中，券商板块的表现最为亮眼，反映出市场风险偏好的升高，它们预计将成为股市狂热的关键受益者之一。一些大型券商股价上涨高达81%，另一些增长了近40%。
中国的股票表现已成为全球股市领涨者的主力，在过去一个月中，恒生中国企业指数涨幅超过30%，紧随其后的是同样表现出色的香港股市和沪深300指数，后者在周一开盘后进入牛市状态，并创下自2008年最大日涨幅以来的最高记录。据高盛集团的数据，对冲基金正在前所未有地加快买入中国股票的速度。
黑石集团等大型投资者和管理公司也对中国市场的信心增强进行了认可。美国的Mount Lucas Management已开始投资于中国的交易所交易基金（ETF），而新加坡的GAO Capital则购买了中国大市值股票。一位新加坡联储银行私人部的董事表示：“中国市场确实出现了复兴，客户对于是否追涨这一现象提出了许多问题。”
除了股市上涨对经济产生正面影响之外，铁路部门在长假首日的乘客出行量大幅增长，也显示消费者支出有所回暖。然而，未来股市进一步增长存在潜在的风险点。巴黎Tikehau Capital的资本市场策略主管指出：“结构性挑战仍很严峻，如信心危机、经济失衡、过度杠杆和未解决的房地产泡沫等问题依然严峻。”
同时，人民币汇率的走势也受到了这次股市暴涨的影响。香港港币对的汇率指数连续第八日上涨至8月份以来最高点位，这可能意味着随着市场流动性增强和股票交易活动激增，现金需求也随之增加。
股市的强势表现使得中国在新兴市场的指数中的占比迅速回升。9月底时，根据中国内地、香港和海外市场的股票数据统计显示，中国的市场份额达到了27.8%，这是自去年11月以来的新高。JP Morgan资产管理公司全球多元资产策略师表示：“我们对中国经济前景持更加乐观的态度。”
她认为中国政府及监管部门的正面信号有助于稳定市场价格，并推动股市上涨的势头。不过，在明确看到长期结构性问题得到直接有效解决之前，对于投资中国市场的态度仍需谨慎。
此外，这次股市繁荣还带来了汇率变动的影响。美元与港币之间的兑换率出现了大幅攀升，这反映了市场流动性增长与股票价格涨幅同步现象，同时也意味着市场对现金的需求增加。同样，离岸人民币汇率也有所上涨。
总的来说，在短短八天内，中国市场已经重新在新兴市场的指数中占据了优势地位，恢复了自过去十个月以来失去的份额。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Chinese Stocks Soar More Than 7% in Hong Kong on Stimulus Bets
新闻日期：2024-10-02
原文摘要：
Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong jumped the most in almost two years as stimulus-induced swept through the city’s $5.8 trillion market.Listen to the Here’s Why podcast on , or .The Hang Seng China Enterprises climbed as much as 8.5% before closing up 7.1%, a 13th straight day of gains. led the rally, with a gauge of the sector surging as much as 47%, while an index of jumped 35%, both record intraday moves. Mainland Chinese markets remain shut until Oct. 8 for a week-long holiday. “I think the bull market can last three months to half a year,” said , an equity research analyst at US Tiger Securities Inc. “I personally am quite confident.”Sentiment toward equities in the world’s second-biggest economy has seen a dramatic turnaround since the start of last week as the authorities unveiled a range of that included interest-rate cuts, freeing-up of cash for banks and liquidity support for stocks. Four major cities also eased home-buying curbs and the central bank moved to lower mortgage rates.There’s growing optimism the blitz of stimulus has brought an end to the in Chinese shares that was driven by the stuttering economy and multi-year property crisis. Still, there have been a number of false dawns, most recently a rally that started in February, so investors have ample reason to remain cautious.So far, the attractive valuations of Chinese stocks are helping to lure investors even after the recent rally.The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is still trading at less than 9 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months, only about half that of the S&P 500, data compiled by Bloomberg show.Brokerages, which are seen as a barometer of risk sentiment, powered ahead amid optimism they will be among the key beneficiaries of the stock-trading frenzy. closed up 81%, while rose almost 40%.Chinese shares are leading gains in global equity benchmarks over the past month. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is the top performer with an advance of 30%, while the Hang Seng Index is second at 27%. The CSI 300 Index a bull market Monday after it posted the biggest daily gain since 2008. Hedge funds are Chinese stocks at an unprecedented pace, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Fast-money funds made record net purchases of Asian stocks in September, led by China and Hong Kong, based on data from the investment bank’s prime brokerage desk. Billionaire investor said last week he is buying more of related to China, while the world’s biggest money manager, BlackRock Inc., is now Chinese shares. US-based Mount Lucas Management has entered into bullish positions on China exchange-traded funds, while Singapore’s GAO Capital is buying Chinese large cap stocks. “There’s definitely a resurgence in interest in China and clients have a lot of questions about whether to chase it,” said , managing director at Union Bancaire Privee in Singapore. “Sentiment on China has turned and equity valuations can potentially re-rate back to historical average levels, which still represents significant upside even after the rally.”There are signs the broader economy is improving too. China’s railway network saw a of trips made on the first day of its week-long holiday, offering early optimism of a pickup in consumer spending. Still, there are a number of potential negatives that may stand in the way of further stock gains, according to , Paris-based head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital. “Structural issues, such as a deep crisis of confidence, economic imbalances, excessive leverage, and the unresolved real estate bubble, still present significant challenges,” he said. “We continue to approach investing in China with caution until we see clear signs that these long-term structural issues are being more directly and effectively addressed.”The impact of the stock rally is also being seen in the currency market. A gauge of in Hong Kong dollars climbed for an eighth day to the highest since August, a sign liquidity is becoming tighter amid seasonal demand for cash and a surge in stocks. rose to trade close to the strong end of its trading band and the offshore yuan also strengthened.The stock rally has been so powerful that in just eight days, China has in emerging-market indexes that it lost over the previous 10 months.The country’s share in MSCI Inc.’s benchmark for developing-nation equities rose to 27.8% at the end of September, the highest since November 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on stocks listed on mainland, Hong Kong and overseas markets.“We are turning more positive on China’s economic outlook,” , global multi-asset strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, wrote in a note. Positive signals from the government and regulators, “should help put a floor on market prices and propel momentum in the equity markets,” she said.
