由于本地股市攀升与季节性因素的双重影响，香港元供给量趋紧，致使港币逼近允许对美元交易的最强水平线。在6月和7月期间，香港元的借贷成本急剧上升，投资者借入现金大举投入股市，同时银行则为了应对季度末的监管检查而囤积流动性。这促使了金融管理局采取行动，以确保货币保持稳定波动区间内，即每1美元为7.75至7.85港元。值得注意的是，香港股市在大陆“散户”与全球对冲基金支持下上涨，后者的策略包括押注与中国相关的股票。
随着中国政府出台刺激政策以提振全球第二大经济体的市场表现，香港股市吸收了闲置资本，并且投资者可能通过加杠杆的方式买入股票。野村证券亚洲外汇策略主管表示：“香港元达到7.75的风险正在上升，伴随着股票市场表现异常强劲。”
此外，由于季节效应及近期债券发行的影响，资金成本亦有所攀升。新加坡星展银行全球市场策略师提到这一情况，并指出当前的货币市场利率指标已上涨至自8月初以来最高水平。
与此同时，香港元远期点数，在外汇衍生品市场衡量其与美元的费用，接近2023年12月以来的最高峰值。在周三下午之前的一段时间内，相关交易量达到约19亿美元，略低于人民币和日元的交易量数据，显示出投资者对香港元的兴趣依然浓厚。
截至周三收盘时，香港元汇率上涨了0.1%，至每美元7.7655港元；同时，中国企企业指数连涨第13天。Credit Agricole CIB的大宗市场策略师指出：“观察的关键在于这波与中国经济刺激相关的强势股市表现的可持续性。”他认为短期内，市场情绪仍处于主导地位。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：HKD/USD: Hong Kong Dollar Supply Tightens as Stocks Frenzy Boosts Demand
新闻日期：2024-10-02
原文摘要：
The supply of Hong Kong dollars tightened due to a rally in local shares and seasonal factors, nudging the currency toward the strongest level it’s allowed to trade versus the greenback. Measures of Hong Kong dollar’s funding costs jumped in both and , as traders borrowed cash to pile into and banks hoarded liquidity before quarter-end regulatory checks. That prompted the city’s , which is only allowed to fluctuate in a band of 7.75 to 7.85 per dollar to inch closer to the stronger end of that range.Hong Kong stocks are being swept higher as mainland’s mom-and-pop investors to global hedge funds buy “” related to China following stimulus measures from the nation’s authorities to boost the world’s second-largest economy.“Hong Kong equities drew idle capital parking in the banking system and some investors may have added leverage to buy stocks,” said , chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank. “The risk of Hong Kong dollar hitting 7.75 has been increasing alongside the stellar equities performance.”Funding costs have also risen because of seasonal effects and the recent bond , according to , global market strategist at DBS Bank. The fact that Hong Kong’s is already close to the lowest since 2008 also helped exacerbate the tightness, she added.Hong Kong dollar’s , an indicator of money-market rates, climbed to the highest since early August on Wednesday. The currency’s forward points of the same tenor, measuring its costs versus the greenback in the foreign-exchange derivatives market, hovered near the highest since December 2023.Trading volume of the Hong Kong dollar was $1.9 billion as of Wednesday afternoon, a tad below that on the yuan and the yen, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp, signaling strong investor interest in trading the currency.The Hong Kong Dollar edged up 0.1% to 7.7655 per greenback on Wednesday while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index , extending its winning streak to 13 straight days. “The key to watch though is the sustainability of this strong equity market performance linked to China stimulus,” said , senior EM strategist at Credit Agricole CIB. “For the moment, sentiment is in the driving seat.”
