在短短8天内，中国的全球影响力显著复苏，这是它在过去10个月在全球经济领域失去的那种重要性。到9月末，中国对新兴市场（EM）股票的权重攀升至27.8%，创自2023年11月以来最高水平，尽管在周二股市因长期假期休市之前如此，据彭博汇总的数据显示。这些数据依据的是包括大陆、香港和海外市场的上市公司股份。
这一增长的动力在于自9月18日美联储释放全球货币宽松信号后出现的、价值高达$3.2万亿人民币的中国股票上涨行情；接着，中国推出了一系列刺激政策。在这场令人惊叹的大逆转之前，中国的股价曾是新兴市场中表现最差的部分，每个月都在失去权重份额，而印度、台湾和韩国等竞争对手则大幅领先。
面对持续流出资金的现象以及与整体新兴市场的表现落差加大至新高点，全球基金经理开始逐步减少对中国股票的持仓。摩根大通、汇丰控股（HSBC Holdings Plc）和皮捷特资产管理公司（Pictet Asset Management）等大型机构都加入了中国投资持悲观态度者的行列。
尽管如此，在这一时期的黯淡背景中，一小群投资者坚持持有看涨中国的观点，他们认为未来可能有更大规模的刺激措施出现。过去的几个交易日似乎印证了他们的判断，“在非常低估值的情况下发生的这次迅猛上涨是意料之外的。”迪拜Tellimer策略师表示，“除非受到制裁禁止配置资产，否则将中国排除在全球最大的新兴市场之外是一种错误的看法。这场风波证明了一些基金的相对表现会因此恶化。”
随着中国股票市场的强力回归，大陆股市领涨，其中基准指数自美联储降息以来飙升了27%。这使得中国的表现自上月起成为所有新兴市场的最佳表现者。当大陆股市因长假休市时，香港上市的中国股票继续上涨，连续13个交易日收高，这是自2018年1月以来最长连涨天数。
这一涨幅源于中国政府推出的全面支持经济和市场的措施。除了降息外，央行设立了针对金融机构的互换计划，并推出了鼓励回购的特殊再贷款设施等直接、针对性措施，直指股市领域。随后，政治局承诺实施更深层次的刺激政策。
一些投资者提醒不应夸大中国收益规模；这部分上涨行情是在估值底和表现相对低迷的基础上实现的，而中国股票四年多来一直在整个新兴市场的对比中处于落后状态，并在9月18日美联储行动后触及历史最低水平。即使在此前的这次反弹之后，它们仅弥补了约16%的落后程度，在过去四年的表现中仍有很大的差距。
当前股市的估值（市盈率）仍然低于10倍；该指数与整体新兴市场相比的折价为44%，而两年前这一比例为15%。“尽管取得了最近这些收益，中国的股票市场仍保持着个位数的低估值，还存在追上过去五年的平均估值水平空间——在11至12倍之间。”Shuaa Capital资产管理部主管表示，该公司对中国持中立看法。
要想实现持续增长，需要看到消费复苏、房地产业活动增加和通缩压力减小。同时，政府还需要解决就业市场问题。“我们还没有看到能够解决宏观经济最大结构性弱点的消费者财政刺激措施。”迪拜Tellimer的策略师指出，“从根本上说，我们还未摆脱困境。”
中国影响力的增强正对其他新兴市场的表现产生影响，突显了中国在整体资产类别中的重要性。南非股市完成了连续七个月的上涨趋势——这是自2021年5月以来最长的一次连续上涨。这在一定程度上是因为中国刺激措施可能提振对中国最大经济体出口国的需求。
不过，在某些领域没有显著增长可能会重燃对中国的质疑，从而影响更广泛新兴市场的前景，这一前景将取决于刺激政策的实施效果。尽管当局已表现出支持经济和股市的决心，但还需要进一步的措施，“我们还没有看到足以修复宏观经济结构弱点的消费者财政刺激。”这位策略师强调。
在“走出困境”的过程中，我们尚未达成共识；这意味着我们在解决中国经济和市场面临的根本问题方面还有很长的路要走。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Dominating Emerging Markets Again as MSCI Weight Soars
新闻日期：2024-10-02
原文摘要：
In just eight days, regained the influence it lost over 10 months in .The country’s weight in for EM equities climbed back to 27.8% at the end of September, the highest level since November 2023, before the country’s markets closed for a long holiday on Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on the gauge’s shares listed on mainland, Hong Kong and overseas markets. The increase in China’s weighting was powered by a $3.2 trillion rally in its stocks since Sept. 18, when the Federal Reserve gave a green light to global monetary easing and China followed up with a stimulus bazooka. The stunning turnaround ends a phase in which Chinese stocks were the laggard in emerging markets, losing share in index weights month after month as rival markets such as India, Taiwan and South Korea surged ahead. Amid deepening outflows and an underperformance that took China to a versus the rest of EM, global money managers increasingly started reducing exposure to the country. From Morgan Stanley to HSBC Holdings Plc and Pictet Asset Management, the ranks of China skeptics swelled. Amid the gloom, though, a small band of investors remained faithful to bullish China calls — touting the possibility of greater stimulus as well as . The past few days seem to have validated them.“It is against the back of very low valuations that this ferocious move up has happened,” said , a strategist at Tellimer in Dubai. “It was a folly to think of emerging markets ex-China, given its size, links with the rest of EM, and its cheap valuation, unless sanctions prohibit allocating assets there. This episode, which will have ruined the relative performance of some funds in the third quarter, proves that.”China’s charge back into the top of the emerging-market leaderboard has been led by mainland stocks, with the benchmark soaring 27% since the Fed rate cut. That helped the country beat other emerging markets last month by the most since June 2022. And as the mainland markets closed for a weeklong holiday, Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares continued the rally — rising for a 13 successive sessions, the longest run since January 2018.The gains came after China unleashed a to support the economy and markets. Apart from interest-rate cuts, the central bank established a swap program for financial institutions and introduced a special re-lending facility encouraging buybacks — direct, targeted measures aimed squarely at the stock market. The moves were followed by pledges from the Politburo for deeper stimulus.Some investors caution against overstating the magnitude of China’s gains. The rally came off a low base both in terms of valuations and relative performance. Chinese stocks underperformed the rest of EM for four years and sunk to a record low in relative terms just before the Fed move on Sept. 18. Even after this recent rally, they have barely recouped 16% of that underperformance — still leaving a vast gap in returns over the past four years.The ’s valuation — the multiple of price over estimated earnings — remains under 10. And the gauge still trades at a 44% discount to the rest of emerging markets, compared with the 15% discount it traded at two years ago. “The Chinese stock market is still holding single-digit valuations despite these gains, leaving significant room to catch up to the five-year average valuations of 11 to 12 times,” said , head of asset management at Shuaa Capital, which maintains a neutral stance on China. “For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see improvements in resumption of consumption, housing-sector activity, and a reduction in deflationary pressures. Additionally, the government needs to address the labor market.” China’s improving fortunes are having other impacts on emerging markets, underscoring the country’s importance to the overall asset class. South Africa’s completed seven successive months of gains, their longest streak since May 2021, partly on optimism that Chinese stimulus will help drive demand for the country’s exports to the world’s second-biggest economy.Still, an absence of gains in areas like could bring back skepticism on China, leaving the outlook for broader emerging markets dependent on successful implementation of the stimulus. While authorities have demonstrated a commitment to provide support to the economy and equity markets, further measures are needed, Malik of Tellimer said.“We have not actually seen the sort of fiscal stimulus for consumers that fixes the biggest structural weakness in the macroeconomy,” he said. “Fundamentally, we’re not out of the woods.”
