市场对中国近期刺激计划的狂热情绪可能存在衰减的风险，据美元对人民币外汇期权市场的交易量数据显示。上周，在包括Bank of America和Citigroup Inc.在内的银行统计中，美元与离岸人民币的交易活动显著增加。投资者对于未来一个月内人民币升值持有信心，然而长期预测则存在不确定性。
美国大选之后，亚太外汇交易部门主管于Bank of America表示：“长期来看，我们继续看到对于美元看涨期权的兴趣广泛增长”，这表明国际投资者对人民币兑美元汇率的基本驱动因素依然存有疑虑。
市场观察到的选择权变化，再加上上周中国官员发言所带来的股市和衍生品市场中的狂热情绪，为这一现象提供了额外的佐证。数据显示，在9月25日政策出台后，与前五天平均值相比，离岸人民币期权价格暴涨了42%。
然而，初步刺激措施热情的褪去正逐渐显现出来。相较于看涨的预期，未来一个月内投资者对于美元贬值对离岸人民币做套期保值的比例下降了超过80%，凸显初期市场乐观情绪的消散。同时，德意志托管清算公司（Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation）的衍生品交易量亦有所减少，较过去五天平均水平低16%。
“我们注意到短期美元看跌期权的需求显著增加，并影响到了风险偏好。”一位位于新加坡的亚太区外汇交易负责人在Citigroup Inc.表示，“但这种现象目前看来是暂时性的。”
对于选择权交易者而言，一个主要担忧在于即将到来的美国总统大选。如果特朗普获胜，则可能引发中美两大经济体之间的贸易战新一轮对峙。
美元与离岸人民币汇率的变化反映了外国投资者的情绪而非国内投资者。自中国股市和债市主要由本土账户主导以来，来自外部的疑虑增加并不必然预示着市场将出现抛售行情。但这些交易显示了围绕中国刺激计划的初步热情，在一定程度上，尤其是在某些市场中，正逐渐转化为怀疑。
离岸人民币市场的实际情况也反映了外国投资者情绪的变化。自触及心理关键水平之后，美元兑离岸人民币汇率已恢复至7.0上方仅数日时间。“我们看到客户开始出售美元对人民币，并从先前的长期多头位置撤回资金。”英国日本外汇交易部门EEMEA地区负责人在Nomura Holdings Inc.如是说，“大选的不确定性仍然存在，市场尚未完全相信中国经济复苏的正面前景。”
这一系列的变动不仅反映出了中国近期刺激措施的影响逐渐减弱的趋势，同时也表明了全球金融市场对中国政策反应的复杂性和多变性。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Yuan Options Bets Reveal Jitters Over China Stimulus Impact
新闻日期：2024-10-02
原文摘要：
Market euphoria around China’s stimulus blitz is at risk of sputtering sooner rather than later, if yuan option wagers are any guide.The volume of dollar-yuan trading surged last week in the foreign-exchange options market, according to Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. Traders have been betting on an appreciation of China’s currency over the coming month — but beyond that short-term move, the outlook is far less certain.“In the longer term beyond the US election, we continue to see broader structural interest for dollar calls, which is suggesting the investor community still has concerns about fundamental drivers of the dollar-yuan exchange rate,” said , head of Asia Pacific G10 FX trading at Bank of America.The shifting view of options traders add another data point to of from Chinese officials last week, which sent stock prices soaring and fueled a wave of yuan trading in the derivatives market.Yuan option jumped 42% above their five-day average on Sept. 25 in reaction to the measures, shows data compiled by Blooomberg. But signs of exhaustion are already emerging.The to hedge the depreciation of the dollar against the offshore yuan over the next month, compared with its upside, has fallen by more than 80% since September 26, as the initial stimulus euphoria fades. Yuan option trading volume on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation has also tailed off, ending last week 16% below its five day average.“We saw demand for shorter dated dollar puts, which impacted the skew aggressively,” says , Singapore-based head of FX trading for Asia Pacific at Citigroup Inc. “However, this seems to be transient for now.”A major worry for options traders is the US election in November, when a Donald Trump win could lead to a resumption of the tit-for-tat trade war between the world’s two largest economies.The options trades, which involve China’s offshore currency, reflect sentiment among foreign investors rather than those inside the country. Since China’s stock and bond markets are dominated by domestic accounts, rising skepticism from foreign traders doesn’t necessarily herald a coming selloff. But the trades show that initial euphoria around China’s stimulus blitz, at least in some markets, has made way for doubts.The spot currency market is also reflecting a shift in sentiment among foreign investors. The dollar is trading back above 7.0 against the offshore yuan, just days after breaching what is seen as a key psychological level.“We saw clients sell dollar-yuan initially unwinding previous long dollar positions,” says , London-based head of EM FX trading EEMEA at Nomura Holdings Inc. “There is still uncertainty ahead of the US elections and market is not fully on board the bullish China sentiment with a risk of Trump presidency still there.”
