中国政府本周一宣布将采取措施简化非本地居民在核心区域购买房地产的流程，并降低最低首付比例后，中国房地产业股票市场出现有史以来最大的涨幅记录。亚洲地区对抑制房地产市场下滑的需求响应了这一举措。据彭博行业研究数据显示，在周三，中国房地产股票指数上涨最高达到31%，创下单日涨幅之最。过去五个交易日内，该指数上涨92%。
在此期间，一些陷入违约的开发商股价涨幅超过200%，其中包括和公司。华融国际金融控股有限公司（Huarong International Financial Holdings Ltd.）在周三当天单独上涨高达463%。中国政府的刺激计划让市场资产近期大幅飙升，并在香港假期后的交易中继续上扬，由房地产开发商引领，恒生中国企业指数周一早些时候一度上升至8.4%，实现了连续第13日上涨的趋势，这是自2018年1月以来最长的一连串增长期。
“中国政府高层坚决立场旨在救援房地产业市场，加上股市近期的强劲反弹效应，有望提升市场情绪并推动后续销售”，CGS国际证券香港公司中国房地产研究部负责人表示，“一线城市或将成为首批从快速恢复销售中获益的城市。”
在美股方面，作为亚洲国家房地产业指标交易的多头押注，在周二创下新高至接近14.6万张期权合同。其中，以十月份30美元看涨期权（相当于前收盘价51%之上）和26美元看涨期权最为活跃。
此轮积极的行情使进一步上涨赌注的成本在相对下跌保护选项上达到了历史最高水平。截至最近一次收盘，看涨期权的数量是看跌期权的四倍多。Sunac公司美元债券在过去五天内涨幅高达16%，而Cifi Holdings Group Co. 公司的债券则上涨9%——尽管仍处于10美分以下的严重折价水平。
同时，Shimao公司的美元债交易量较为低迷，因为该企业正在筹划债务重组计划。
在周三市场情绪普遍乐观的同时，摩根大通分析师给出了谨慎的提示，“近期措施有助于稳定房地产市场，但提升房价和恢复需求将是极具挑战性的任务”。他们的团队在一份报告中写道：“房地产业持续的压力将留下大量的市场需求缺口，从而使得增长低于目标。”
（注：原文与优化翻译内容之间的差异在于调整了叙述结构、句式以及表述方式以适应中国读者的阅读习惯，并确保信息准确无误，但整体保持了原文的核心意思和要点不变。）
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Defaulted Developers Soar 200% in Speculative Frenzy
新闻日期：2024-10-02
原文摘要：
Shares of Chinese property developers rallied most on record after Beijing joined its peers to ease rules for homebuyers, following the Asian nation’s call to stem the property market decline.A Bloomberg Intelligence of Chinese real estate stocks surged as much as 31% — a record — on Wednesday, following the Monday that the nation’s capital will make it easier for non-residents to buy property in core areas and cut minimum down payment ratios. The index has risen 92% over the last five trading days.During the same period, stocks of some of defaulted developers — including and — have surged more than 200% each. Huarong International Financial Holdings Ltd. rose as much as 463% on Wednesday alone. China’s stimulus blitz has sent the market’s assets soaring in recent days, and the euphoria continued in Hong Kong on Wednesday, when it reopened after a holiday. Led by property developers, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped as much as 8.4% for a 13th day of gains, its longest streak since January 2018. “Resolute stance of rescuing property markets from top central government officials, coupled with wealth effect from recent strong rallies of stocks markets, should improve market sentiment and lead to a better sales ahead,” said , head of China property research at CGS International Securities Hong Kong. “The tier-one or top-tier cities will be the first batch of cities benefiting from strong sales recovery.”In the US, trading of bullish bets on — a proxy for the Asian nation’s property market — surged on Tuesday to a record of almost 146,000 calls. October contracts with strikes of $30 — 51% above the previous close — were the most active, followed by October $26 calls.The bullish trading sent the cost of betting on further gains to a record high relative to puts protecting against declines. As of the last close, there were four times more calls outstanding than puts.Some dollar notes of Sunac jumped by as much as 16% in the past five days, while those by Cifi Holdings Group Co. climbed 9% — though still at deeply distressed levels of less than 10 cents on the dollar. Shimao’s dollar bonds were little traded as the company is in the process of coming up with a debt restructuring plan.While the mood in the market was soundly positive on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley analysts had a word of caution.“The recent measures will help stabilize the property market, but lifting prices and reviving demand will be challenging,” analysts led by wrote in a note. “The continued drag from the property sector will leave a sizable shortfall in demand behind, keeping growth below target.”
