一位中国首席经济学家指出，当前有空间大幅增加财政支持，发行高达 10 万亿元（约 1.4 万亿美元）特别债券，这反映出北京加大公共支出以刺激经济增长的预期不断上升。
贾康先生曾为中国财政部附属研究机构的负责人，现任新供给经济学研究院院长。他在《纸媒》的一次采访中表示，“随着这些项目的启动，它们将创造就业、增加公民收入并释放消费潜力。” 当被问及现在是否可以大规模发行债券至 4 万亿甚至 10 万亿元时，他表示“这并不算过头”。
他的言论加入了对财政部未来举措的讨论。在中国经济增长放缓的情况下，北京已表明了加大刺激措施的决心。政治局最近提出，官员应发行超长期特别主权债券和地方专项票据以推动投资，并给出了更加具体的政策方向。
贾康建议的大规模发行是政府计划今年仅增加 1 万亿元特别国债规模的好几倍。但考虑到中国经济在名义上增长四倍的事实，他指出当前这相当于2008年刺激计划的适度扩大。“合理使用公共债务机制不会过重地负担政府”，他对《纸媒》说道，“30至50年到期的长期和超长期政府债券值得利用，并在安全范围内。” 上周有报道称财政部计划发行 2 万亿元特别主权债券，这些资金将平分用于刺激消费和帮助地方政府解决债务问题。
标卓银行（Standard Chartered）中国宏观经济策略主管王丹认为贾康提出的扩大规模是“实际可行”的，“这更多关乎愿意支持的程度，并非数量——如果不够，将会增加直到达到合适数额。”
经济学家们估算直接财政刺激可能在 1 万亿元左右，将资金部分用于提振消费和资助大型项目。周四，包括金玲在内的经济学家写道，在最新的报告中总额可能会是这个数目的两倍或更多，其中包括为大型银行提供资金以应对潜在的债务问题。
中国的激进经济刺激措施导致股市上涨，上周一中国主要股指创出自 2008 年以来的最大涨幅。此前一周港股成份股指数在有关刺激政策乐观情绪的影响下连续第13天下涨，但周四下跌了1.58%。丹斯克银行表示这是自金融危机以来最大的刺激措施之一，并将中国经济明年增长预期从4.8%上调至5.2%，认为中国未来将逐渐不再是一个全球通胀抑制因素，而是成为一个中性影响力量。
眼下人们开始关注即将到来的财政支持计划。经济学家们认为需要加大支出以提振经济，尤其是在消费者信心在8月降至自11月以来最低点的情况下。
“短期内，政府常规财政政策是关键观察对象”，澳大利亚麦格理集团的经济师陈杰和何洁敏周一的报告中写道。“稍后十月，政府可能宣布更多特别国债或地方政府债券发行额度。”
2023年，中国最高立法机关在其十月份会议上授权增发 1 万亿元新增特殊政府债券。日经首席中国经济分析师王建表示中国政府可以通过投资大型基础设施项目、增加社会保障支出并直接资助滞后的房地产项目来有效提升经济活动（成为“最后一棒的建造者”）。他同时指出，在考虑财政选项时，政府将面临一些限制。
“北京无疑会推出一系列财政措施和其他支持政策，但最终规模和内容可能会相当灵活不确定，这背后的原因是股市泡沫发酵及关于中国应集中精力解决的问题仍然存在争议。”王在周四的一份报告中写道。
摩根士丹利经济学家包括陈杰在内的认为需谨慎对待此问题，考虑到中国目前的债务负担。中国的公共债务与 GDP 比率在今年早些时候达到了历史高点 286%（数据来自彭博社汇总的央行和统计局数据）。而他们表示，“对财政扩张的需求只会越来越高。” 然而，在巨额财政赤字及公共债务水平仍然较高的背景下，政策制定者可能会自然地倾向于提供相对谨慎的支持。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Ready for $1.4 Trillion Fiscal Bazooka, Top Economist Says
新闻日期：2024-10-03
原文摘要：
A leading economist in China said the country has room to ramp up fiscal support for the economy by issuing as much as 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in special debt, reflecting rising expectations for Beijing to expand public spending as part of its stimulus package.Jia Kang, a former head of a research institute affiliated with the Ministry of Finance, said authorities could lift confidence by drastically raising government investment in public projects. He spoke in an interview with Chinese publication The Paper published Tuesday.“As these projects get underway, they will create jobs, increase income for citizens, and unlock consumption potential,” said Jia, who now leads the China Academy of New Supply-Side Economics, a private think tank. Without giving a possible timeline, he said “scaling up the bond issuance now to 4 trillion or even 10 trillion yuan would not be excessive.”The comments add to a growing discussion over what the Ministry of Finance will — or should — do to boost the world’s No. 2 economy after Beijing signaled its desire to under its growth slowdown. The elite 24-man Politburo urged officials to issue ultra-long special sovereign bonds and local special notes to drive investment without giving specifics, fueling speculation on the strength of the fiscal measures. The debt issuance Jia suggested would be many multiples of the 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long special sovereign bonds the government planned to this year. But he said that would be a proportional increase from the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package in 2008, given China’s gross domestic product had quadrupled in nominal terms by the end of 2023.“Using public debt mechanisms properly won’t overburden the government,” he told The Paper. “Long-term and ultra-long-term government bonds, with 30- to 50-year maturities, offer significant flexibility and are worth utilizing, remaining within safe limits.” Reuters reported last week that the Ministry of Finance is planning to issue 2 trillion yuan of special sovereign bonds this year. That funding will be evenly split between stimulating consumption and helping local governments tackle debt problems, the news agency said, citing two people familiar with the matter.The ambitions set out by Jia are “realistic,” according to , head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc. “This is more about the willingness to support, not so much about the quantity — if it is not enough, there will be more until it is enough,” she said.Economists at estimate direct fiscal stimulus will amount to 1 trillion yuan, with a potential package split between boosting consumption and funding large projects. The total amount could be double that or more, including funds for banks to shore up big lenders, economists including Jing Liu wrote in a note Thursday.Beijing’s stimulus blitz fueled a rally in stocks, with the the benchmark jumping the most since 2008 on Monday before the country entered a weeklong holiday. A gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies rose for 13 straight sessions on stimulus optimism until a on Thursday, when it fell 1.58%.Danske Bank A/S called the efforts the biggest stimulus measures since the global financial crisis, revising its growth forecast for China next year to 5.2% from 4.8%. The country will gradually become less of a global disinflationary factor and more a neutral force as the economy stabilizes, the bank’s chief China economist said in a note on Wednesday.Now the focus is turning to any coming fiscal support. Economists believe greater spending is needed to boost , with consumer confidence falling to its weakest in August since November 2022.“In the near term, the conventional fiscal policy is the key to watch, as the government will disclose more details,” Macquarie Group Ltd. economists and wrote in a note on Monday. “Later in October, the government may announce more quota for special sovereign bonds or special local government bonds.”In 2023, China’s top legislative body used its October session to authorize the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in additional special government bonds.Nomura’s chief China economist said the government could invest in mega infrastructure projects, increase spending on social security and directly fund delayed housing projects — effectively becoming the “builder of last resort.” But he added that the government would have to face some constraints as it considers its fiscal options.“Beijing will surely roll out a raft of fiscal measures and other supportive policies, but the eventual scale and content of the fiscal package might be quite improvised and uncertain due to the brewing stock bubble and still-controversial debates on what Beijing should focus on,” Lu wrote in a note on Thursday.Morgan Stanley economists including echoed the caution, citing factors including the country’s current debt burden. China’s rose to a record 286% earlier this year, according to central bank and statistics bureau data compiled by Bloomberg.“The ask for fiscal expansion will only increase from here,” Ahya, chief Asia economist, and others wrote in a Tuesday note. “While there is as such no hard limit on how expansionary fiscal policy can be, we believe that policymakers may be naturally hesitant to provide significant accommodation against the backdrop of wide fiscal deficits and elevated levels of public debt.”
