自中国政府宣布刺激经济计划以来，中国的科技股出现了一波显著上涨行情。引发这一涨势的关键因素是新增买入行为而非空头回补。
JPMorgan Chase & Co.策略师指出，在最近的一份报告中，“近一周中国ADR（存托凭证）的强劲上涨主要归因于新的购入行为，并非空头回撤。”他们还补充说，各个股票的空头回补只在行情中扮演了次要角色。
追踪30家香港上市的中国科技公司的指数已经飙升超过45%，仅在过去四周内就创下了历史新高。阿里巴巴、京东和美团等公司都出现了多年来的最大涨幅，这一现象与政府宣布刺激措施并提振国内经济密切相关。
虽然空头投资者承受着巨大损失，但短期内他们并没有大量平仓迹象。S3的管理总监Dusaniwsky在一份报告中提到，在阿里巴巴、京东以及百度这类公司的短期做空兴趣并未显著改变，依然维持在总流通股本的2%到3%区间内。
不过，市场分析认为，如果这一涨势持续下去，可以预期短期内会出现更多空头回补现象，这将进一步推高股价。Dusaniwsky警告称，“数据表现令人惊讶，通常情况下如此大幅度的反弹会导致空头多次损失并被迫平仓。”
在期权市场方面，多头投资者占据主导地位，尤其是那些押注中国大型股 ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）将上涨而与之相反的看跌押注。阿里巴巴和京东等公司成为了这一趋势中的关键组成成分。
综上所述，中国的科技股票在过去几年遭遇了诸多挑战，但当前形势似乎显示出转机的迹象。虽然一些投资者仍对近期的反弹持怀疑态度，但在期权市场中，看涨情绪持续高涨。同时，对于潜在继续上涨的支持性因素，如政府刺激措施的积极影响和需求趋势变化等，值得关注。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Lack of China Tech Short Covering Means Rally Is Fresh Buying
新闻日期：2024-10-04
原文摘要：
Chinese tech stocks have had a tremendous rally since the nation announced its stimulus spree. And all signs point to fresh buying being the main cause. Listen to the Here’s Why podcast on , or .Short positions on American Depositary Receipts of major companies including , and haven’t changed dramatically in recent days, according to S3 Partners and JPMorgan Chase & Co. If the bears were forced out of their bets, the rally could get further momentum.“The sharp rally in Chinese ADRs over the past week has been mostly the result of fresh buying rather than short covering,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including wrote in a note this week. “Short covering in individual stocks appears to have played only a modest role in the Chinese equity rally.” The , which tracks 30 Chinese tech companies listed in Hong Kong, has soared more than 45% in less than four weeks, including a record surge in the six days through Wednesday. Alibaba, JD.com and food-delivery company Meituan were among those that had some of their in years as investors swept up in a buying spree after the Chinese government announced measures to stimulate the troubled domestic economy. The tech gauge climbed on Friday for the seventh in eight days. While short sellers have incurred , there hasn’t been a rush to cover bearish bets, , managing director of predictive analytics for S3 wrote in an Oct. 1 report. The short interest for Alibaba, JD.com and Baidu had remained around 2% to 3% of shares available. Should the rally continue, though, expect a “” of short covering, which will push up stock prices even further, Dusaniwsky warned.“The data is surprising as the magnitude of the bounce will normally cause shorts to be wiped out many times over and forced-covered in a traditional risk monitoring and control framework,” said , a fund manager at Maitri Asset Management Pte. “The latest round of stimulus pivot by the Chinese government shows that the leadership has significant zeal and intent to turn things around.”Chinese tech stocks have had a tough few years. While the nation’s economy weakened, a government crackdown on the sector and fierce e-commerce competition hurt results at the firms that once were market darlings. Also read: Short sellers who are holding on to their positions may be doing so because they’re skeptical on the recent rally, according to , an analyst at MIB Securities Hong Kong Ltd. Morningstar Inc.’s notes that consumers’ “downtrading trend” is still pronounced in sectors including e-commerce, travel and food delivery.Still, when it comes to the options market, bulls are alive and well. Bets for gains on a US exchange-traded fund tracking China’s large-cap stocks are near their priciest ever relative to bearish wagers after . Alibaba’s and JD.com — companies that have seen a burst of bullish options trading recently — are among its biggest components.Top Tech Stories
