欧洲联盟周五投票决定对中国电动汽车征收高达 45% 的关税，这可能引发与北京之间的更广泛贸易冲突，中国政府已经承诺保护本国企业免受冲击。欧盟汽车制造公司的股价在投票后上涨。欧盟委员会——这个区域组织的执行机构——现在可以开始实施这些关税，为期五年。据熟悉情况的人透露，支持这一措施的有 10 个成员国，德国和四个国家投了反对票，而另外十二个国家弃权。
这轮行动源自对中国的指控：中国不公平地补贴其电动汽车产业。中国政府对此予以否认，并威胁将以自己的手段报复欧盟，目标包括乳制品、威士忌、猪肉和汽车等重要行业。这一争端使欧盟与中国之间的贸易关系变得紧张——去年双边贸易额高达 7390 亿欧元（约合 8150 亿美元）。
欧盟此举反映了一种战略转变，即减少对中国的依赖。前欧洲央行行长警告说，“中国政府主导的竞争”是对欧盟的威胁，可能导致它在面对外部压力时脆弱无力。然而，就是否继续执行这一关税措施上，双方意见并不一致。欧盟和中国已经展开谈判以寻找替代方案，并探讨可能达成的出口价格与数量管控机制来代替惩罚性关税。
“我们继续努力探索一个全面符合世界贸易组织规则、能够充分解决委员会调查发现的有害补贴问题、可监控且具有执行力的替代解决方案。”欧盟委员会在宣布决定时如此说明。
中国商务部表示，尽管同意欧盟继续谈判的愿望，但也警告称这一措施将动摇并削弱中国企业投资欧洲的信心。作为全球最大的汽车市场之一，在这里，本土品牌在电动汽车领域占据了主导地位。这使得欧洲汽车行业深感压力重重——销量下滑和激烈的国内竞争导致企业利润空间被压缩。
尤其是法国的 Cognac 产业对此表示不满，认为政府已抛弃它们。Pernod Ricard SA 和 Remy Cointreau SA 的股价分别下跌了最多1.8% 和3.1%，而与 LVMH 联手经营Cognac和香槟合资企业的Diageo Plc也下跌了 1%。
中国电动汽车制造商面临抉择：承担关税成本，或是将价格上调。在国内需求放缓的背景下，这进一步挤压了他们的利润空间。面对此前景，一些中国厂商考虑投资欧洲工厂，以避开关税壁垒。
吉利集团发表声明对这一决定表示批评，称“它既非建设性，也可能损害欧盟与中国之间的经济与贸易关系，最终对欧洲公司和消费者的利益构成危害”。
实施新关税后，中国电动汽车制造商在欧洲市场的增长势头已显著放缓。今年8月的销量同比下滑48%，降至18个月低点。尽管欧洲是出口市场中的理想目的地之一——电动车在这里的销量相对较高且价格更具竞争力，但这一地区的吸引力仍然存在。
在过去三年中，中国电动车在欧盟销售份额从约3%增长至，其中中国品牌占据了大约8%的市场份额。除了特斯拉等国际企业从中国出口的产品之外，其它主要由中国制造商生产并在全球最大汽车市场——中国之外进行输出的企业占据剩余部分份额。
然而，根据大和证券分析师 Kevin Lau 的估计，对欧盟的关税提升仅对中国制造商产生“次要影响”，因为这一区域只占他们总销量的小比例。具体而言，今年前四个月中，大众、吉利和上汽集团在欧盟地区的销售贡献度分别约为1%到3%。
欧洲汽车制造业巨头担心，提高关税可能会引发贸易战，并加剧他们在全球最重要的市场——中国市场所面临的挑战。因此，在此问题上投反对票的决定反映了德国政府对经济、繁荣与增长利益的支持。奔驰和宝马都曾呼吁柏林反对更大幅度的关税措施，并敦促欧盟与中国进行协商。
虽然布鲁塞尔一直在寻求为欧洲企业创造公平竞争环境，但德国汽车制造商们担心，这可能会加剧他们在全球最重要市场——中国面临的压力。梅赛德斯-奔驰、宝马以及大众这样的德国汽车厂商在中国市场的销售额大约占其总销量的三分之一左右，在此背景之下，它们对这一决定表达出支持，并投票反对实施更高关税。
与此同时，中国制造商的出口势头因欧盟的举动受到抑制。据估计，今年前四个月中，它们在欧洲的电动汽车销售量同比下降48%，降至18个月来的新低。
欧洲汽车行业的困境凸显了其在中国市场的竞争地位与内部成本结构之间的矛盾。随着消费者需求放缓和全球竞争对手的崛起，中国制造商现在必须在是否承担新关税的成本或调整价格之间做出选择。然而，在中国市场需求低迷的情况下，这将进一步挤压它们的盈利空间。
面对这一前景，一些中国企业正在考虑投资欧洲工厂，旨在避开现有的贸易壁垒，并寻求在欧盟市场获得更有利的地位。吉利控股集团对欧盟的决定提出批评，指出这是“非建设性的”，可能损害了中国与欧洲之间的经济与贸易关系，最终影响到欧洲企业与消费者的利益。
中国制造商出口势头因欧盟的行动受阻，尤其是针对电动汽车这一增长领域。自2023年以来，在全球最大的汽车市场——中国市场之外寻求销售机会的背景下，欧盟提高关税对这些企业在欧洲市场的业绩产生了明显的影响。尽管中国的出口商长期以来一直关注着欧洲高需求和更具竞争力的价格市场，但当前形势表明，欧盟这一举措可能改变它们在欧洲市场上的战略考量。
在这个不断变化的竞争格局中，全球汽车行业正面临着前所未有的挑战与机遇。中国制造商需要重新评估其全球业务策略，并寻找有效的途径来应对复杂的国际贸易环境，以确保其产品的可持续性和竞争力。而欧洲作为全球汽车工业的重要阵地，在这场全球化的竞赛中同样面临着重新定位自身角色的挑战。
欧盟与中国之间的关系将如何发展？中国制造商是否能够找到新的出口路径？欧洲汽车行业又会采取何种策略应对关税壁垒和不断变化的市场格局？这些问题将成为未来数年内国际经济领域关注的核心议题之一。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：EU to Impose Tariffs Up to 45% on Chinese Electric Vehicles
新闻日期：2024-10-04
原文摘要：
The European Union voted on Friday to impose tariffs as high as 45% on electric vehicles from China, threatening a broader trade conflict with Beijing which has already vowed to protect its companies.Shares in European automakers rose after the vote. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, can now proceed with implementing the duties, which would last for five years. Ten member states voted in favor of the measure, while Germany and four others voted against and 12 abstained, according to people familiar with the results.The decision by the EU comes after an investigation found that China unfairly subsidized its industry. Beijing denies that claim and has threatened its own tariffs on European dairy, brandy, pork and automobile sectors.The bloc is actively trying to reduce its dependencies on China, with former European Central Bank President warning last month that “China’s state-sponsored competition” was a threat to the EU that could leave it vulnerable to coercion. The EU, which did €739 billion ($815 billion) in trade with China last year, was split on whether to move forward with the duties.The EU and China will continue negotiations to find an alternative to the tariffs. The two sides are exploring whether an agreement can be reached on a mechanism to control prices and volumes of exports in place of the duties.“The EU and China continue to work hard to explore an alternative solution that would have to be fully WTO-compatible, adequate in addressing the injurious subsidization established by the commission’s investigation, monitorable and enforceable,” the commission said in a announcing the decision.China’s commerce ministry acknowledged the EU’s political will to continue negotiations while warning that the tariffs will “shake and hinder” the confidence of Chinese companies investing in Europe. Europe’s car industry has been reeling from slowing demand and stiff competition in the world’s biggest automotive market of China, where local brands now dominate on electric vehicles. Volkswagen AG has caused consternation in Germany by considering shuttering factories there for the first time to cut costs.After European carmaker shares in the past weeks following a barrage of profit warnings from manufacturers, including Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG, they recovered a bit on Friday’s tariff vote. The Stoxx 600 autos and parts index rose, but that’s because the news was already priced in, said Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Europe. The index is still down more than 10% this year — despite the ever-ascending Ferrari NV in the mix.France’s Cognac lobby criticized the move, saying the government had abandoned them. Shares in Pernod Ricard SA fell as much as 1.8%, while Remy Cointreau SA lost as much as 3.1%. Diageo Plc, which has a Cognac and Champagne-producing joint venture with LVMH, was down 1%.Chinese EV makers will have to decide whether to absorb the tariffs or raise prices, at a time when slowing demand at home is squeezing their profit margins. The prospect of duties has prompted some Chinese automakers to consider investing in factories in Europe, which might help them dodge tariffs.A statement from Geely Holding Group Co., which controls Sweden’s Volvo and UK’s Lotus Cars, criticized the decision, saying it’s “not constructive and may potentially hinder EU-China economic and trade relations, ultimately harming European companies and consumer interests.”The additional tariffs already have slowed Chinese carmakers’ momentum in Europe, with their sales 48% in August to an 18-month low. The region is a desirable destination for the nation’s manufacturers because EVs sell in relatively high numbers and at much more robust prices than other export markets.The share of electric cars sold in the EU that were made in China climbed from around 3% to in the past three years. Chinese brands accounted for around 8% of that market share, as international companies that export from China including Tesla Inc. taking up the rest.Still, Europe’s tariff hike will have a “minor impact” on Chinese manufacturers because the region accounts for only a fraction of their total sales, according to Daiwa Securities analyst Kevin Lau. Europe contributed between 1% to 3% of overall sales for BYD Co., Geely and SAIC Motor Corp. in the first four months of this year, he estimated.A spokesperson for Volkswagen said in a statement Friday that tariffs were the “wrong approach” and wouldn’t improve European competitiveness.“We appeal to the EU Commission and the Chinese government to constructively continue the ongoing negotiations for a political solution,” according to the statement. “The common goal must be to prevent any countervailing duties and thus a trade conflict.”Read More: The large number of abstentions in the EU vote betrays unease in many member states about a possible trade war with China, even as key nations like France have said that the bloc needs to defend its own industries more strongly. German Economy Minister warned earlier that imposing the duties could lead to a tariff war.“It’s the right signal from the German government, which — in the interests of the economy, prosperity and growth — has backed the interests of the European and German automotive industry and its employees on such an important issue and voted no today in the EU decision,” Hildegard Müller, president of German car lobby VDA, said in a statement after the vote.While Brussels has sought a level playing field for European companies, Germany’s automakers are concerned about blowback that could exacerbate challenges they’re already having in their most important market globally. Mercedes and BMW pressed Berlin to vote against the higher tariffs and urged the EU to negotiate with Beijing.German automakers including Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW would be hit hardest in a trade spat as China accounted for roughly a third of their car sales in 2023.
