新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Oil Traders Confront a New World Without China Bull Factor
新闻日期：2024-09-12
中国经济放缓、房地产市场低迷以及消费者信心不足，使得全球石油需求增长面临不确定性。这意味着，中国不再是推动全球石油需求增长的主要动力。多年来，中国经济的增长曾是支撑石油价格上涨的关键因素，但现在这一情况已发生变化。
一名油交易商表示，他公司的交易员过去20年里一直未曾见过这样的世界——一个没有中国繁荣因素的世界。“我问他们一个问题：你们做了多少年的交易？他们会回答‘10年’。然后我说，‘你们从未经历过一个没有中国繁荣因素的世界’”。
原文摘要：
For the first time in two decades, China no longer looks like the engine driving global crude demand, which is uncharted waters for many of the traders and executives that gathered for the APPEC oil conference in Singapore this week.China’s is dire, with its property market in the doldrums and consumer confidence weak as it struggles to recover from a pandemic-induced slowdown. Add to that structural changes from an aging population, the energy transition and a growth model that leans less heavily on big-ticket infrastructure, and it’s bad news for oil.For crude merchants and analysts, that means a big adjustment.“I’ve had the discussion internally with my traders. I asked them one question — how long have you been trading? They’ll say 10 years,” said , the chief executive officer of Hengli Petrochemical International Pte., a trading arm of one of China’s largest private refiners. “My reply is, you haven’t really traded a world where China is not a bullish factor.”China’s evolution into the world’s biggest oil importer has supported crude prices for decades and provided business opportunities for merchants from Shanghai to Dubai and London. A tolerance for low-digit GDP growth — perhaps even missing this year’s 5% target — makes that difficult to sustain.An informal Bloomberg survey of ten analysts and traders on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference found that oil consumption in China is expected to grow by no more than 300,000 barrels a day in 2025. That’s in-line with the latest projection from , which cut its expectations this week, and lower than estimates by the. The poll showed that a 200,000 barrel-a-day expansion is expected for this year.Respondents, who asked for anonymity as their views are not public, cited higher penetration of electric vehicles, the steady uptake of liquefied natural gas-powered trucks and government restrictions on crude imports and fuel exports. There’s also little spare storage capacity for Beijing to expand its strategic oil reserves.Global oil demand growth is “” as China’s economy cools, according to a monthly report from the IEA. Chinese demand contracted in July for a fourth straight month, and fuel use elsewhere is “tepid at best.”“From a structural perspective, China now looks unlikely to be the behemoth for oil demand and perhaps even for other commodities that it once was,” Energy Aspects Ltd. analysts including and Livia Gallarati said in a note earlier this week, “We remain confident that the government will not allow economic growth to collapse, but growth will no doubt be lackluster for the foreseeable future.”Other APPEC attendees, including Hengli’s Kong, cited the changing nature of oil demand. Chemical feedstocks to produce products such as fibers account for one-third of the nation’s total consumption — at about 5 million barrels a day — and that proportion may grow as road transport goes green. But those goods have a far longer “half life” than fuels, Kong said, which translates to less crude being refined over time.China’s challenging outlook clouded the annual event in Singapore, which is Asia’s largest oil conference. With near $71 and the world’s second-largest economy showing few signs of an imminent revival, traders and refiners are bracing for lower profits.Still, refining capacity in China continues to increase. Expansions at China Petrochemical Corp.’s Zhenhai and Cnooc Ltd.’s Daxie refineries, and a brand new greenfield facility by Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co. will add a combined 740,000 barrels a day of capacity.However, the world’s No. 2 oil consumer will have to live with processing rates under 70%, traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said. Not everyone is calling a for Chinese fossil fuel consumption — or writing off the potential for Beijing to boost growth. Trafigura Group Chief Economist said China was still adding 8 million to 9 million new combustion engine vehicles a year.“To me, if you’re adding new vehicles, it doesn’t feel like peak,” he said.Others agree there is still room for growth, even in a less commodity intensive environment.“If the Chinese economy improves, we’ll see more discretionary driving,” said Sri Paravaikkarasu, director of market analysis at Phillips 66 International Trading. “But we should all embrace a slower demand growth from China in the coming years.” in Beijing are testing new ways to boost the economy by encouraging demand, breaking with long-established practice as threats to the country’s growth target mount. advised its carmakers to make sure advanced electric vehicle technology stays in the country, people familiar with the matter said, even as they build factories around the world to escape punitive tariffs on Chinese exports. is forecast to hit the east coast of China early Monday, threatening to bring excessive rainfall that could disrupt oil refineries and LNG import terminals and paralyze transport. Shanghai may be bottoming out as Chinese smelters cut output to shore up margins.(All times Beijing unless noted.)Thursday, Sept. 12:Friday, Sept. 13:Saturday, Sept. 14
