新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China to Cut Rates on $5 Trillion Mortgages as Soon as September
新闻日期：2024-09-12
中国政府或于本月内开始降低逾5万亿美元房贷利率，以刺激消费。
根据知情人士透露，这些措施旨在缓解家庭的财务压力，并应对国内消费疲软及全球市场趋势恶化的情况。一些银行已经做好准备，即将调整房贷利率，有可能实现最多50个基点的立即降息。具体时间安排尚未最终确定，仍可能有所变化。据知情人士称，政策制定者计划分两步将利率降低约80个基点。
数据显示，中国目前的房贷余额约为5.3万亿元人民币，这是近三年来的最低水平。政策制定者已采取措施降低贷款成本，包括取消首次和第二次购房指导性房贷利率。然而，北京方面仍在努力应对房地产市场的低迷，并面临保护主义加剧及全球经济前景不稳定的挑战，这可能会影响出口。尽管几轮旨在提振国内需求的措施已经出台，但仍不足以克服当前的困境，威胁到政府的增长目标，并促使经济学家呼吁采取更多刺激措施。
原文摘要：
China is poised to cut interest rates on more than $5 trillion of outstanding mortgages as early as this month, according to people familiar with the matter, as it accelerates a move to reduce the borrowing costs for millions of families to spur consumption. Some banks are making final preparations to get ready for the upcoming adjustments on mortgage rates, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. Some homeowners may enjoy up to 50 basis points of immediate rate reduction, one of the people said. The timeline has yet to be finalized and could still change, said the people. The People’s Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration didn’t respond to requests for comment.Bloomberg News earlier this month authorities are mulling a plan to allow borrowers to renegotiate terms with their current lenders before January, when banks typically reprice mortgages. The proposed cuts will likely come in two steps totaling about 80 basis points, people familiar with the matter said.Policymakers are ramping up a push to reduce households’ financial burden amid weak domestic spending and worsening risk. While China has pushed average mortgage costs to a record low this year, most families didn’t benefit as banks won’t reprice existing loans until next year. The disparity has frustrated some homeowners and fueled a wave of early mortgage payments. The move also comes as a growing number of Wall Street analysts are predicting China may miss its economic growth goal of about 5% this year. Meanwhile, a deepening selloff in Chinese stocks is exacerbating a crisis of confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, heaping pressure on policymakers to halt the downward spiral.A Bloomberg of Chinese developer shares plunged 8.3% this week to the lowest in four months, after some builders were removed from a program that connects the mainland bourses to the Hong Kong. Existing mortgages carry an average interest rate of about 4%, compared with 3.2% on newly-issued loans for a first home and 3.5% for a second home, according to data compiled by China Real Estate Information Corp in late August. China’s outstanding amount of mortgages, which count as prime assets at Chinese lenders, stood at ($5.3 trillion) at the end of June, the lowest level in nearly three years. Further rate reductions would pile pressure on the banks, which have already seen their margin tumble to a record low of 1.54% as of end-June, well below the 1.8% threshold regarded as necessary to maintain reasonable profitability.Homeowners would save more than 300 billion yuan in annual interest expenses assuming an 80 basis points cut, analysts at Shenwan Hongyuan Group estimated. For a household with 1 million yuan of 30-year mortgages, its monthly payment will drop by about 9%, they said.Policymakers have taken some forceful steps to lower borrowing costs this year including scrapping a central government-guided mortgage rate floor for first and second home purchases. Still, Beijing has struggled to contain the property downturn and now faces the prospect of increasing protectionism and a shaky global outlook weighing on exports. Several rounds of measures aimed at reviving domestic demand have done little to overcome the retreat, endangering the government’s growth target and spurring economists to call for additional stimulus.
