新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Holidays Test Consumer Stocks Mired in Spending Gloom
新闻日期：2024-09-13
中国即将举行的双休假将对消费股带来关注，因消费复苏仍然受到一定困扰。节日期间的消费表现将成为监测重点，以了解疫情以来是否出现回暖信号。
消费股受两大因素影响：一是长期的财务状况；二是地缘政治局势和企业业绩疲软等环境因素。中国证券300指数目前约为2000点，今年以来下跌了约8%。
在节日期间，关注的股票包括酒店、航空公司和电子商务平台相关股份。预计旅行需求将继续回暖，影响Booking.com、eLong、Ctrip、携程旅游网等相关股价。
消费股将受酒类、运动服饰、零售和娱乐相关股票的推动。关注的股票包括中国茅台、安进啤酒、中国资源啤酒等酒类公司，以及李宁和361度等运动服饰公司。
由于疫情影响，消费股市仍面临挑战，但部分迹象显示消费需求开始恢复。节日期间的数据将对市场的投资方向产生重要影响。
原文摘要：
China’s two upcoming public holidays are putting a spotlight on consumer-related shares amid a struggling spending recovery. Holiday consumption is in focus as a and continue to hamper the world’s second-biggest economy. Investors will be watching for any hints of a rebound during the Sept. 15-17 Mid-Autumn festival and Golden Week from Oct. 1-7.Listen to the Here’s Why podcast on , or .Some positive signs have already started to emerge, with pre-booking data pointing to compared to both pre-Covid levels and the Dragon Boat Festival in June. However, consumers’ willingness to spend remains in question despite policymakers’ efforts to ramp up economic activity.“Domestic travel numbers may show some growth, but may be offset by more budget-conscious spending,” said , a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Given the macro environment, expectations may be quite low. But with the focus on consumption recovery, any surprises could boost market sentiment.”Confidence in China’s stock market has continued to wane as a years-long property crisis, geopolitical tensions and earnings weakness cloud the outloud. The CSI 300 Index is now trading around its level since January 2019 and is down about 8% so far this year. have been among the worst sectors in 2024, shedding more than 23%. The shares dropped as much as 1.9% on Friday to their lowest level since March 2020, with baijiu bellwether losing 2.8%. Airlines also declined after Citigroup Inc. downgraded some stocks on concerns of . Here are the stocks and sectors to watch during China’s holidays:Shares of companies tied to hotels, airlines and e-commerce platforms may find support in data showing a continued rebound in travel demand. Booking orders for hotels, car rentals and attraction tickets for the Mid-Autumn festival compared to the same period in 2019, the Securities Times reported, citing data from travel booking platform Feizhu.Key stocks to watch include Trip.com Group Ltd., H World Group Ltd., BTG Hotels Group Co., Haidilao International Holding Ltd. and Air China Ltd.Consumer companies are expected to benefit from channel restocking for festivals in the fourth quarter, given an early Chinese New Year in 2025 and a lower base in the second half of the year, . analyst wrote in a note.Although market watchers anticipate the holidays could offer a short-term boost for baijiu distillers and beer brewers, sluggishness in liquor demand may continue amid subdued consumer confidence. Sales may also miss market estimates during the holiday promotion period, according to , citing an industry association. Sportswear makers may also see “sequentially intensified” industry promotions during the two upcoming holidays through the nation’s Singles’ Day shopping event in November, according to Citigroup Inc.Key stocks to watch include alcohol producers Kweichow Moutai Co., Budweiser Brewing Co. and China Resources Beer Holdings Co. Key retailers to watch also include China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp., Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd., Sa Sa International Holdings Ltd. and Li Ning Co.Leisure-related stocks may benefit from holidays as the so-called booms in China, with people spending more on services even as they remain thrifty and refrain from splurging on goods.Box-office companies may also get a lift as a number of movies are scheduled for release during the National Day holiday.Key stocks to watch include movie companies Maoyan Entertainment and Wanda Film Holding Co. Casino operators MGM China Holdings Ltd., Wynn Macau Ltd. and Sands China Ltd. are also in focus.
