新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Recovery Likely Dealt Another Blow From Extreme Weather
新闻日期：2024-09-13
中国经济可能继续下滑
中国经济增长可能继续放缓，这可能是受到了恶劣天气的影响。中国经济学家表示，极端天气事件的影响可能会延续下去。
数据将于周六公布，预计8月份中国经济活动将出现第四个连续月的放缓。这将创下近三年来的最长停滞期。
分析人士称，中国经济已经受到恶劣天气和需求疲软的双重打击。由于极端天气事件，北京的增长目标可能难以实现，即5%的增长率。
经济活动 snapshot 将是第三季度预测数据之前的最后一个读数。迹象表明，世界第二大经济体正在失去动力，这促使银行分析师们降低他们的预期。UBS Group AG 上个月将2024年GDP增长预期从4.9%下调至4.6%。
预计周末数据将显示，8月份中国工业生产率可能下降至4.7%，低于7月的5.1%。这是由于极端天气事件中断了许多建筑项目和工业生产的缘故。官方制造业采购经理指数（PMI）显示，在8月，中国工厂活动继续下滑，已连续四个月放缓。
其他数据也表明经济出现了疲软。首先，中国日均焦炭产量在8月初20天内同比下降7%。电力输出的收缩还体现在煤炭价格的下跌上。
零售额在8月上涨2.5%，低于7月的2.7%。这种疲软可能是2023年高基数和恶劣天气事件扰乱旅游消费的统计影响。
原文摘要：
likely failed to reverse a monthslong slowdown rooted in depressed demand, especially after the disruption caused by extreme weather this summer.As pressure builds on policymakers to roll out more stimulus, data due Saturday will show growth in slipped in August for a fourth straight month, in what would be its longest deceleration in almost three years. A slower expansion in activity also extended to and , according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.The widespread weakness would be a signal of how little traction the $17 trillion economy has generated in recovering from its worst stretch in five quarters. Heat waves — coupled with torrential rains that snarled travel and flooded farmland and mines — have added to setbacks for Beijing and its of growth around 5%, a goal most global banks now believe might be out of reach.“The economy was under a double whammy of weather shocks and weak demand in August,” Citigroup Inc. economists including said in a report this week. “The ‘around 5%’ growth target could be at risk.”The snapshot of activity will be the last reading before China releases its estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter next month. Evidence is already mounting that the world’s second-biggest economy is losing momentum, prompting analysts at banks including to lower their projections. UBS Group AG cut its 2024 GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 4.6% last month. The figures for August will follow a meeting of China’s top lawmakers this week. Their gathering could endorse a plan to gradually raise the retirement age in a country where a worsening demographic crisis is weighing on its long-term economic potential. Delaying retirement would slow the decline of China’s labor force while also presenting a more immediate threat to already-brittle sentiment among people who are uneasy over the prospect of working into their older years.China’s core inflation — which strips out volatile items such as food and energy — cooled in August to the weakest in more than three years. As price pressures became more subdued, a former central bank governor made a to focus on fighting deflation, a phenomenon that could hold back the economy if falling costs lead consumers to delay purchases and businesses to slash wages.Here’s what to expect when the National Bureau of Statistics publishes the data on 10 a.m.:Industrial production likely expanded 4.7% in August, according to the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg, a drop from 5.1% in July. have disrupted construction projects and damped industrial production. The country’s factory activity for a fourth straight month in August, according to the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The output sub-index slipped into contraction, signaling a decline in manufacturing.In other signs of softening, the daily average output of crude steel decreased 7% in the first 20 days in August compared with the same period in the previous month. Thermal coal prices also fell from July, pointing to a slowdown in electricity output.Retail sales rose 2.5% last month from a year ago, according to the survey, down from a 2.7% gain in July. The slowdown might be due to the statistical effect of a high base from 2023 and bad weather disrupting travel-related consumption.While China recorded an increase in the number of summer travelers compared to 2023, year-on-year growth in August was probably slower as heat and floods disrupted travel and stifled spending. Car sales, which account for a 10th of overall retail sales, also an annual 1% in August, despite the government’s introduction of a cash-for-clunkers incentive for buyers who trade in old vehicles.Fixed-asset investment gained 3.5% in the first eight months from a year ago, according to forecasts, a further decline from 3.6% in the first seven months of the year. The value of new-home sales from the 100 biggest real estate companies almost 27% year-on-year in August, accelerating from July’s 19.7% slump and indicating the waning impact of the latest unveiled by authorities in May. Government-led investment is proving insufficient, as local officials focus on easing back the debt burden. Provincial governments are selling new special bonds at the slowest pace since 2021.
