新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：PDD’s Status as Top China Growth Stock in Doubt After 30% Drop
新闻日期：2024-09-13
PDD股价自8月公布财报后已下跌超过30%，成为纳斯达克100指数中表现最差的一家公司。投资者对公司的前景持悲观看法，分析师纷纷下调预期，以应对竞争加剧和投资者信心下降。
在最新8月的业绩发布会上，PDD高管表示公司长期的增长速度将放缓，并需要增加支出以保持市场份额。Morningstar Inc. 分析师指出，这表明PDD正面临激烈竞争。此前，PDD曾被视为中国电商领域的佼佼者，其低价策略使它成功赢得了注重性价比消费者的青睐；而在海外，Temu也复制了这一成功。然而，随着公司前景转弱以及股东回报的减少，这些优势已不再那么突出。
Pictet Asset Management 的资深投资经理表示：“市场很快担心 PDD 超高速成长阶段可能即将结束”。短期内，中国宏观经济环境和日益激烈的竞争格局将影响公司的增长速度。
亚马逊旗下折扣区及 TikTok 所有者字节跳动等公司的产品也在蚕食 PDD 主打的低成本市场份额。此外，美国正加大对包括使用大量小批量货物规避关税的零售商在内的企业进行审查，而超过 50% 的 Temu 产品来自中国，因此这一审查可能会影响PDD的成本利润率。
分析师表示，尽管如此，他们对价格竞争力仍持乐观态度，因为阿里速卖通和亚马逊也从中国采购了类似比例的产品。自8月财报公布以来，市场普遍预期PDD的股价目标已下调24%，超过其他任何一家中国公司（除了高途教育）。投资者还对PDD模糊的前景展望以及缺乏回购股票或分红计划感到困惑。JPMorgan Chase & Co. 分析师写道：“所有我们采访的投资者都对PDD的指导和投资方向感到迷茫”，而“特别是长期基金，对公司的股东价值创造表示失望”。
原文摘要：
’s position as China’s top-performing tech stock is in danger, amid a crisis of investor confidence over the e-commerce firm’s worse-than-expected sales and growing competitive threats.The company behind the popular Temu platform and its Chinese equivalent Pinduoduo has seen its US-listed shares slide more than 30% since results that the market last month. That’s the worst performance on the Nasdaq 100 Index, and the pain seems far from over as analysts slash expectations for the former market darling.PDD’s weak outlook and lack of shareholder returns have raised concerns. Meanwhile rivals including are showing success in matching the company’s cutthroat pricing, and heated US rhetoric continues to build over the Chinese business model.On Friday, PDD’s shares dropped as much as 6.3% in US trading after the Biden administration steps to limit use of a trade loophole favored by Chinese retailers that allows millions of packages with cheap goods into the US every day without customs declarations or duties.In the August earnings briefing, management was “guiding for lower growth and lower margins in the long term,” while also saying they need to spend more to defend market share, said , an analyst at Morningstar Inc. “They’re saying competition is intense,” she said.Until recently, PDD had been seen as a in China e-commerce, as its low-price strategy enabled Pinduoduo to grab share among consumers looking for value in a weakening economy. It also reaped praise by duplicating that success overseas with Temu. PDD’s shares are still up more than 160% over the past five years, topping a Bloomberg of the largest Chinese tech stocks.That’s changed with the company’s that revenue growth will inevitably dwindle. PDD has shed more than $80 billion in market value from a high in May, falling back behind Alibaba as China’s largest e-commerce firm. In the process, PDD founder Colin Huang lost his briefly-held position as the nation’s .“The market has quickly become concerned that the hyper-growth phase for PDD could be coming to an end,” said , senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management. “The domestic macro headwinds and an increasing competitive landscape are both likely to moderate this strong growth in the shorter term.”Amazon.com Inc.’s plans for a discount section and recent offerings from others including TikTok owner ByteDance Ltd. are crowding PDD’s mainstay low-cost market. At the same time, geopolitical risks are rising as the US trains a on forced labor and retailers that skirt import duties with high volumes of small shipments.“More than 50% of Temu’s products are currently sourced from China,” so increased scrutiny may hurt PDD’s margins, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst . She added however that “in terms of price competitiveness, I am less concerned on this front as rivals such as AliExpress and Amazon also source a similar portion from China.”PDD’s consensus stock price target has been slashed 24% since its results in August, more than any other Chinese company except Gaotu Techedu Inc., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts were discouraged by the online retailer’s unclear guidance as well as the absence of plans to buy back shares or pay any dividends, even as rivals plan levels of shareholder returns.“All investors we spoke to were puzzled by PDD’s guidance and areas of investment,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst wrote in a note. Long-only funds in particular “are disappointed by the company’s apparent neglect of shareholder value, given PDD’s guidance that it will not consider shareholder return actions in the visible future.”
